by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 11 - 3 - 12
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 5 - 10
Race 5:   9 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   9 - 1A - 10 - 11
Race 7:   4 - 10 - 5 - 11
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 9:   4 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 10:   12 - 6

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: BLURRED LINE (#3)
This is one of the most confusing races of the day because it’s so difficult to narrow down the number of contenders, or even to single out one so-called “horse to beat.” The morning line favorite is Real Dan, who not only is getting a sharp drop in class but also has a significant recency edge on many of the other runners who are likely to attract tote support. It was nothing short of silly that he was favored in his last two starts considering the strength of those fields. He disappointed both times and now Pletcher is just running at the level where he feels he belongs. However, there are some hurdles for this runner. This will be his first start around two turns and there’s no guarantee that he’s even best at route distances, let alone 1 3/16 miles. Over the past 5 years, Pletcher is 8 for 27 (30 percent, $1.48 ROI) with horses making their first starts for a tag on dirt at Saratoga, highlighting that these types often get overbet. I’m using him defensively, but I think some others are more appealing. There’s nothing too flashy about Tiz No Bluff, but he does figure to work out the right trip given his tactical speed in a race where few others want to be forwardly placed. His most recent win at the N2L level was stronger than it seems since he survived a quick pace. I’m not sure that he really wants to go this far, but I would use him. He’s more trustworthy than a couple of runners who are coming in off layoffs. Armament returns from a 3-month break after disappointing against a tougher field at Oaklawn. He handled dirt at the Fair Grounds two back, but he set a ridiculously slow pace that day. Gary Gullo does a good job, but it may be difficult for him to improve on the work of a trainer like Karl Broberg. Hollywood Handsome is slightly more intriguing since he has back class and trainer Jorge Navarro is 20 for 40 (50 percent, $2.64 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more over 5 years. I’m using all of these options, but I’ve landed on Blurred Line as my top pick. I realize that this horse is hard to endorse based solely on his two dirt races. However, I’m struck by the number of horses who seem questionable, at best, to handle this demanding 1 3/16 miles distance, and I get the sense that Blurred Line is the type that really does want to go this far. This horse showed some ability when he began his career and notably ran his best effort in his longest race – at this distance – finishing behind superior runners like Uncle Gio and Frontier Market in his second start. That was on turf, of course, and his dirt races are slower. Yet it should be noted that his form had already declined significantly by the time he made that switch to dirt last fall. He was also showing some bad habits, lugging in his races and not responding to his rider’s cues. Danny Gargan gave him plenty of time off and brings him back in the first race of the Saratoga season, which always draws a tough field. Over the past five years, Gargan is 5 for 13 (38 percent, $4.30 ROI) with horses off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt routes. Blurred Line appears to be training well for the comeback and I like the switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who figures to give him a more aggressive ride. If the time away has done him well, he’s a player in this race at a price.
 

RACE 4: BEMMA’S BOY (#8)
Local Hero is the horse to beat after just missing in a similar spot at Churchill Downs last time. While he’s never won on the turf, he has run well over this surface in all but one start. The horse that defeated him last time, Clear for Action, would be a clear favorite in a spot like this. Local Hero had to swing wide off the far turn and made a strong late bid, drawing nearly six lengths clear of the rest of the field. He’s posted in a great inside slot going this tricky one-mile distance on the inner course, and if he repeats his last effort he should be difficult to beat. The horse he will have to catch is Gosilently, who is predicted to be out in a front in a situation favoring the front-runner by the Pace Projector. Robert Falcone, Jr. has good statistics off layoffs, and the horse has an aggressive rider on his back, but he is stepping up in class. I’m using both of these prominently, but I want to take a shot with a bigger price. Mike Maker’s other horse, Bemma’s Boy, could get somewhat overlooked in here, and I think he’s quite intriguing. This horse has only gotten one opportunity to race on turf in his career, and he won that day, earning a decent 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He only prevailed by a neck, but I liked the way he did it, turning back multiple challenges on the lead in a game performance. For whatever reason, he’s raced on nothing but dirt since then. Yet now he’s claimed by sharp turf trainer Maker, who switches him immediately back to this surface. He’s always been cut out to be more of a grass horse, since his dam is out of the Grade 1-placed turf mare Pertuisane. He’s worth upgrading at a square price.
 

RACE 8: HIS GLORY (#3)
The 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Shippy earned in her debut is the highest number assigned to any 2-year-old thus far in 2019. If she repeats that kind of effort here, she will almost certainly find herself in the winner’s circle. Yet, getting horses to replicate their impressive debuts going 4 1/2 or five furlongs as they stretch out in distance can be quite tricky. To her credit, Shippy showed all the signs of a horse that should have no trouble handling six furlongs. Doug O’Neill doesn’t run many horses on the East Coast, but he is 3 for 3 with 2-year-olds in dirt sprints at NYRA over the past five years. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, and indeed we have seen many a Schuylerville that falls apart in the final furlong. I typically like to look for a strong finisher in races like this, and His Glory fits the bill. Once you get past the two aforementioned fillies, the others are pretty evenly matched in terms of speed figures. The 79 TimeformUS Speed Figure that His Glory earned for her debut puts her in the mix for a piece of this, and she gave the impression that she has more to offer in that win. She easily overhauled her foes and drew off under mild encouragement with ears flicking back and forth. Tom Amoss does great work with 2-year-olds, and I doubt he’d be running her in this spot if he didn’t think highly of her. She’s unlikely to make the lead like last time, but she should be running on strongly in the lane at a big price.
 

RACE 9: LISTING (#4)
I’m not particularly interested in potential favorite Call Paul. He would obviously beat this field if he transferred his dirt form to the grass, but I’m highly dubious. Jason Servis does very well with this move, going 3 for 6 (50 percent, $3.90 ROI) with horses trying the turf for the first time in stakes company over the past 5 years. Yet, unlike last year’s winner World of Trouble, this horse has no serious turf pedigree of which to speak. I believe that Listing is the most likely winner of this race, and he probably won’t go off as the public choice. Trainer Ben Cecil rarely ships out of California, so there is real intention to this runner’s placement. He ran fairly well down the hill over the winter, but he appeared to find the 6 1/2 furlongs of those races to be a bit far for him, as he struggled to seal the deal. Unsurprisingly, he relished the turnback to five furlongs at Santa Anita last time, showing good early speed before drawing off in the lane with quick, efficient strides. That race earned an impressive 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and that number holds up to scrutiny when assessing the rest of the field. I love the rider switch to Joel Rosario, who is arguably the best in the business in these turf sprints. This horse can set the pace or stalk, and he’s meeting a field of runners with dubious turf form. The other runner I want to use is Elektronic, who should appreciate a turnback after not handling seven furlongs last time. He’s better than his speed figures indicate, and the fact that Linda Rice is getting ambitious is typically a good sign. I would also include a logical contender like the filly Abyssinian. Even a first time turfer like Sombeyay is worth throwing in, since he has the most convincing pedigree of those trying this surface for the first time.