PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 9 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 3 - 1A - 6
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 11 - 10
Race 8:   6 - 12 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   5 - 1 - 11 - 7
Race 10:   10 - 7 - 12 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

This conditioned claiming turf sprint looks like one of the most wide open races on the card, especially since the expected favorites aren’t that compelling. I suppose Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#4) is the horse to beat off her narrow loss at this level last time. She got a slightly wider trip than Mostly Harmless, but it’s not clear that she ran a better race than that foe. Mostly Harlmess had to briefly pause in traffic in upper stretch, and they both were just picking up pieces as the race fell apart. A few runners who could take money just broke their maidens. Fabulous Fanny and Liana B figure to duel for the lead, but closer Linarite (#9) is the one who would interest me most as she steps up against winners for the first time. She’s gotten some favorable setups but seems to be progressing with each start. Yet my top two picks are horses who are looking to recapture their best form. Saratoga Gaze (#6) might be the most likely winner if she can continue moving in the right direction for the Mark Hennig barn. She got the wrong trip when she returned to turf two back against tougher company, and took a step forward going a mile last time. I don’t think she really wants to go that far, but she does have to prove that 5 1/2 furlongs isn’t too short. My top pick also has distance questions to answer, as Diva Ready (#3) has never sprinted on turf. Yet this full-sister to 7-furlong winner More Mango strikes me as one that should handle the cutback. She’s a smaller filly who seemed to deteriorate through racing last year. She benefited from a minor layoff in the fall when running better than it looks in that Nov. 6 affair. Now she’s returning from a longer layoff for Bob Klesaris, who is 4 for 17 (24%, $5.28 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs at NYRA over 5 years. Her best form certainly puts her in the mix if she’s able to sprint effectively.

Fair Value:
#3 DIVA READY, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

I’m not wildly against the favorites in this $20k claimer, but I also had little desire to settle for short prices on any of them given the trust issues surrounding every runner in this field. Portos (#6) is taking a big drop in class to run for the lowest tag of his career. We’re probably going to see a lot of this at Saratoga given the size of the purses, but you still have to sort out who’s being placed to win and who’s being given away. Portos has run plenty of recent races that would make him formidable against this field and has to be considered the most likely winner. I just have a little more trust in a horse like Dust Devil (#2), who appears to be getting realistic class relief. He got going a bit too late when he closed for second at the $32k level last time, and it makes sense that his connections would target this lower tag given how tough the claiming races come up at Saratoga. He still isn’t the most reliable win candidate, and never has been, but I view him as a better bet. My top pick is a horse who just figures to offer better value. Pit Boss (#3) exits the same race as Dust Devil, and really lost all chance at the start when he threw his head up and was forced to steady. He wants to be more forwardly placed than that, but he still put in a game effort to close for fifth. I also liked his performance two back when he chased a fast pace that fell apart before settling for third. He ran well going this distance at Aqueduct back in March, and his tactical speed figures to play well in a race that features a murky pace scenario. I also don’t mind the rider upgrade to Javier Castellano.

Fair Value:
#3 PIT BOSS, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

I’m trying to beat Runningwscissors (#2) in this spot. This horse feels like he’s going to be a pretty short price on the class drop, especially with Irad retaining the mount, and I’m a little concerned that he won’t be able to recapture his best form. He obviously got very good for about a week this spring, winning two races in quick succession during a time when the David Jacobson barn was on fire. However, the stable has cooled down since then, and this horse failed to deliver his best effort as the 4-5 favorite last time. He is dropping in class, but 5 1/2 furlongs has always been a little short for him and I think others offer much better value. Among the logical types, the horse that I would want to key around is Yarrow (#6). As fortunate as he was with his trip two back at Aqueduct, the opposite was true last time at Belmont. He broke well but Manny Franco elected not to display the same aggression he had off the layoff. Yarrow subsequently got shuffled back to last around the turn and then was forced to alter course at an inopportune moment in upper stretch. He was finishing best of all late but was never in a position to be successful. I don’t mind him turning back since there appears to be some pace in here, and he won going the distance last summer at Saratoga. I just have to consider one other runner at a much bigger price. Winners Laugh (#5) makes his turf debut here, and it’s hard to tell if this is really an intentional turf switch or if he’s just in here as an incognito MTO. Regardless, I am intrigued by this gelding switching to turf. The pedigree may not be so obvious, but this dam has produced a couple of runners who can run on grass. Broken Vow is also a highly underrated turf sire, getting a strong 14% winners from turf sprint starters. This horse’s stride gives me the impression that he could translate his form to turf, and he figures to get overlooked in this spot.

Fair Value:
#5 WINNERS LAUGH, at 9-1 or greater
#6 YARROW, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

I’m generally skeptical of the short prices in this starter allowance affair. I want no part of Condiment Girl (#9), who took advantage of a speed-favoring surface last time and otherwise looks too cheap for this level. Fellow Ellis Park winner Obrigada (#10) is more convincing as she makes her first start for the Linda Rice barn, but these connections figure to take a lot of money and I’m still not totally sold on the form of her last race. Rick Dutrow, Jr. has also entered a pair of runners, topped by Sa Foradada (#5), who just can’t seem to find the winner’s circle lately. She’s also facing a much tougher field at the level than she met last time. His other runner Mursal (#8) has more upside, but she was claimed from a low-profile barn that’s been overachieving with its runners. I wanted to look for some bigger prices. Need Some Money (#11) makes sense off her recent efforts at Churchill. I’m just a little concerned about her closing style for this race, since there isn’t that much speed signed on. My top two picks are the fillies drawn closest to the rail. Carbon (#2) will be the best price of those I’m considering, and I think she has a good chance to outrun her odds. She didn’t get an ideal trip last time, since she bumped at the start and off slowly before having to wait for room in upper stretch. She’s generally run well in her starts since the claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci and figures to be underrated again. My top pick is Into Happiness (#1). There’s no doubt that she beat a much weaker field last time, but I really liked the way she did it. She always traveled powerfully into the race, and drew clear with authority late. Unlike most in here, she’s faced tougher company for much of her career prior to that recent drop. She’s just gone longer distances in most of those races, but I actually like this turnback off the claim. Mark Hennig has had success for this owner, and she figures to be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#1 INTO HAPPINESS, at 6-1 or greater
#2 CARBON, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 9

The traditional opening-day feature, the Grade 3 Schuylerville, drew a wide-open field, most of which are light on experience. The expected favorite is Belmont debut winner Wine On Tap (#7), who goes out for Todd Pletcher. She earned a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her debut, which is the highest number in this field. However, it’s concerning that the only horse to run back out of that race, third-place finisher Devil At Midnight, regressed by 28 speed figure points in her next start. I just have some concerns about the quality of that race, and she figures to take plenty of money. I actually think the horse to beat is the morning-line second choice Saratoga Secret (#5), who I’m happy to scratch into as my top pick with Status Seeker coming out. This well-bred daughter of Arrogate is bred to go much longer than this, so it was encouraging to see her win that debut sprinting at Ellis. She was hard-ridden by Luis Saez throughout, but responded well to win going away. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas once dominated this race and did send out last year’s Schuylerville runner-up Summer Promise, who also was wheeling back on relatively short rest. The scratch of some speed from this race should aid Carmelina (#1), who was so impressive breaking her maiden at Parx on debut. She’s definitely one to upgrade after scratches. Sugar Treat (#11) could sit a good trip from mid-pack, and she’s no longer drawn as wide with four horses to her inside coming out of this race. She overcame adversity to win her debut on synthetic, but must prove she can handle the transition to dirt.

Fair Value:
#5 SARATOGA SECRET, at 5-2 or greater