PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 8:   6 - 1 - 13 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 10:   6 - 9 - 4 - 5

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: PARSIMONY (#1)

The opener is one of the most confusing races on the entire card. I can poke significant holes in all of the favorites, so it’s a spot where I want to do a little price shopping. #6 Bear Alley could attract support off a pair of blowout victories at Churchill Downs against cheaper company. He’s competitive on speed figures, but I need to see him produce that form against tougher company. #9 Kershaw attracts Irad Ortiz and is dropping in class, so bettors may find him appealing as well. His form from this winter towers over the field, but I’ve seen too many horses regress significantly for Bonnie Lucas this summer to trust him to get back on track, even with the drop in class. #7 Giocare seems a little more trustworthy going out first off the claim for Orlando Noda. He’ll appreciate a fast early pace and is coming off a pair of solid efforts. However, I do think the Beyer for his last race is too high. My chief concern with him is that these two-turn dirt routes at Saratoga tend to favor speed types and he’s a deep closer. If I’m going to take a late runner, I’d rather it be longshot #4 Dark Storm, whose recent form isn’t quite so eye-catching. However, he feels like one that is better around two turns, and he’s run some of his best races at Saratoga in the past. I struggled with this race, and ultimately landed on #1 Parsimony as my top pick. I know this 3-for-36 horse isn’t the most reliable win candidate, but he’s been running races that make him competitive here for much of his career. His two efforts since returning from a layoff in Pennsylvania this spring have been somewhat disappointing, but Danny Gargan’s barn tends to wake up at Saratoga. Gargan has won just 32 races at NYRA over the past 2 years, but 14 of those victories have come at Saratoga. He’s also 8 for 27 (30%, $2.26 ROI) in Spa dirt routes over the past 5 years, finishing in the money at a 74% rate.

WIN: #1 Parsimony, at 4-1 or greater
UPGRADE: #4 Dark Storm, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 4: AFJAN (#7)

Likely favorite #3 Remote appears to be putting things together as the distances increase. He dropped his jockey at the start two back, but quite professionally ran around the track riderless, finishing alongside winner Balthus. He managed to run a proper race with jockey last time, making an early move off cover to contest the pace into the turn before getting overhauled by a Chad Brown trainee in the stretch. He’s logical, but I just wonder if he’ll get overbet going out for the potent duo of Clement and Rosario. I’m most interested in a couple of Kentucky shippers as the alternatives. One of those is #8 Good Soldier. He appeared to take a step forward with the switch to grass last time, working out a fantastic trip from post 12. He was staying on well in the late stages, and he’s bred to stretch out. His dam is a half-sister to John’s Call (1 5/8 miles) winner Summer Patriot, as well as 12-furlong Laurel Turf Cup winner St. Alban's Boy. My top pick is #7 Afjan. It’s a little curious that this guy hasn’t yet gotten a chance on turf. Uncle Mo is a solid turf influence and the dam won on turf, finishing second in both the G1 Chandelier on synthetic and the G2 Honeymoon grass. The best sibling to race is Group 3 turf winner Toro Strike, who primarily raced overseas. Yet Pletcher ran this horse on dirt, and even Maker kept him on dirt after Three Diamonds purchased him for $210k in April. Maker is a solid 15 for 96 (16%, $2.71 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time over the pat 5 years. He looks like one that should relish both the surface switch and added distance. He also could play out as one of the speeds in a race lacking pace.

WIN: #7 Afjan, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3,8

RACE 8: CUSTOMER LIST (#6)

This N1X allowance affair has attracted a wide open field of 3-year-old fillies, including a couple of dangerous Christophe Clement runners drawn towards the inside. #3 Myriskyaffair obviously kept good company in her last race, finishing second to Consumer Spending, who just rallied for third last weekend’s G1 Belmont Oaks. She’s yet to win on the turf, but has run well in both of her starts on this surface. She’s perfectly logical, but I’m more intrigued by Clement’s other runner #1 Canisy. She was a bit of a surprise when she won her debut at 15-1 in May, upsetting a couple of highly regarded Chad Brown trainees. She lost her second start at this level last month, but was unlucky, as she got stymied behind a wall of traffic for much of the stretch drive before shaking free too late. She figures to get a better trip from her advantageous rail draw this time and is arguably the one to beat. I’m taking a shot against these two with #6 Customer List. She’s coming off a poor effort in her return at Penn National last month, but she clearly didn’t handle the boggy turf course that day after stumbling at the start. She showed real promise in her lone appearance as a 2-year-old, inhaling an overmatched group to win her debut at Monmouth. This daughter of Wootton Bassett still has upside as she makes her second start off the layoff, and I’m encouraged that Chad Brown is running here with four encouraging turf works showing since that return. I would also use the other Chad Brown trainee, #13 Santa Giulia, who gets in off the also-eligible list after the scratch of Wonka. It's a tough post position, but Chad tends to have these Euro imports ready to fire at Saratoga. She's been working in company with Customer List, and has reportedly been getting outworked by that one in the mornings. Though, she figures to be a square price, comparatively.

WIN: #6 Customer List, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,13

RACE 9: ADORA (#3)

There is a ton of early speed signed on in this Schuylerville, which should help the case of #1 Just Cindy. This daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify did not disappoint at 6-5 in her debut. She got a little keen early, but just rolled home on the outside once steered into the clear. The victory was even more impressive due to the fact that she closed into a slow pace. Eddie Kenneally is 3 for 7 (43%, $2.40 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints over 5 years. She’s the horse to beat, but there are many other promising runners to consider. The Impeccably-bred #9 Summer Promise is out of G1 Apple Blossom winner Dream of Summer, making her a half-sister to G1 winners Vexatious and Creative Cause, as well as Belmont Stakes runner-up Destin. Despite that stamina-oriented pedigree, she showed plenty of speed on debut. She’s wheeling back in just 19 days, but it didn’t seem like that first race should have taken too much out of her. The bigger concern is the sheer volume of early speed in this field, as she may be forced to stalk from the outside. Mark Casse has entered a trio of runners, including impressive Woodbine debut winner #6 Me and My Shadow. Yet I’m most intrigued by his other Woodbine shipper #3 Adora. This expensive yearling purchase broke sharply from the outside and dueled early before drawing clear impressively in her debut. I liked the way she dealt with a contested pace, which she will face again here. Mark Casse is 4 for 12 (33%, $2.59 ROI) with last-out maiden winners going from synth to dirt over 5 years. This daughter of Into Mischief has quality on the dam’s side of her pedigree, and looks like one that shouldn’t have too much trouble making the transition to dirt.

WIN: #3 Adora, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1

RACE 10: ABUSE OF POWER (#6)

I’m not trying to beat #6 Abuse of Power as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. Her turf form is clearly superior to this field and she may not go off that short a price due to the low-profile connections. Some may argue that she hasn’t been as good since leaving Chad Brown’s barn, but she’s run well with some excuses in her recent starts. She got involved in a hot pace three back at Gulfstream and held on well going two turns. Two back she didn’t get a particularly clever ride going this distance. And then last time she put in a strong performance against much tougher despite getting dismissed at 40-1. The inside paths were probably not the place to be, since that June 4 affair was dominated by horses moving outside. She has to negotiate the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs, but she figures to get an honest pace ahead of her and is getting significant class relief. I’m not particularly fond of her main rival #5 Fast Corey, who could take money for Brad Cox. She has serious distance limitations and tends to stop badly in her races, which seems like a major issue in a spot that features a plethora of early speed. The longshot that I’ll try to get into the mix is #9 Queens Dancer. This daughter of War Dancer has a turf pedigree, and ran pretty well in her lone turf start last year. She was no match for the superior She’s a Mia, but she held on well for fourth after contesting the pace. She looks slow on speed figures, but she has a right to run much faster as she returns to turf as a 3-year-old. And the price is guaranteed to be generous for these Finger Lakes-based connections. I’d also use #4 Rigby underneath, as she feels like one that could benefit from some pace up front if her connections opt to revert to closing tactics here.

WIN: #6 Abuse of Power, at 8-5 or greater
USE: 4,9