PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 3:   9 - 10 - 7 - 12
Race 4:   10 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 7 - 11
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 8 - 1/1A
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 10:   12 - 8 - 7 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: FLOWERS FOR LISA (#6)
In the Saratoga opener, we’re faced with two horses making their first starts off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. While this barn has outstanding statistics with that trainer move across all circuits, he’s 3 for 27 (11%, $0.76 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at NYRA over the past 5 years, and 0 for 5 at Saratoga. Hammerin Aamer seems like the more positive of the two trainer moves, as he’s exiting a couple of barns that don’t win at quite the same rate as Diodoro. However, those NYRA statistics give me cause for pause. Wagon Boss makes perfect sense after defeating one of the Diorodo runners, Charlie’sarchangel, last time out at Churchill Downs. He’s held his form well as he’s switched from one circuit to another and has handled this distance in the past. While Michelle Giangiulio may be an unfamiliar name to many handicappers, she’s sent out 3 runners so far for this owner and all have hit the board. I’m using him, but I sided with the speedy Flowers for Lisa for my top pick. This runner is a little difficult to trust based on his lone effort since last winter. However, he entered an unfavorable pace scenario when last seen in May, dueling with the classy Danebury on the lead before backing up. Now he’s meeting a softer field, and he’s always been dangerous whenever he’s dropped below the $20k claiming level in the past. While there are other runners with tactical speed in this field, he’s the lone confirmed front-runner, and Luis Saez figures to try to lead this crew from wire to wire.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,9

RACE 7: BUSINESS MODEL (#3)
The Shadwell Stable entry figures to attract plenty of support, as both halves of this pair are contenders. I slightly prefer Arham, who has run well in both dirt starts since stretching out to a mile. However, he was supposed to win last time when he had dead aim on eventual winner Yankee Division and just couldn’t forge past. I actually am somewhat more interested in Dust Devil out of that race as he makes his first start off a private purchase and trainer switch to Bill Mott. He’s proven that he can handle the 9-furlong distance, and he brings strong speed figures and consistency to the table. Yet, as much as I respect those 4-year-olds, I’m most interested in a couple of the 3-year-old challengers exiting maiden victories. The one who could attract a bit more support is Southern District, who was a visually impressive winner going two turns at Churchill Downs last time. He got a great trip, sitting just off a slow pace, before taking over in the lane. He finished up with plenty of energy, giving the impression that he definitely prefers dirt and won’t mind a little added ground. I’d use him, but my top pick is the other Churchill maiden breaker Business Model. This son of Candy Ride made three starts as a 2-year-old and just looked a little raw and immature. He finished well in those two-turn races but was always hitting his best stride too late. Therefore, it was encouraging to see him getting engaged midway through that one-mile event in his return last time. He ranged up at the quarter pole and lowered his head to grind past the leaders through the lane. Brendan Walsh is a strong 14 for 60 (23%, $2.71 ROI) with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners, and this ridgling seems like one who should relish the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8
Trifecta: 3 with 2,8 with 1,2,4,8

RACE 9: PRETTY BIRDIE (#1)
This race loses some wagering appeal following the scratch of the likely favorite Happy Soul. The two fillies drawn down towards the inside now seem especially dangerous. Mainstay merits strong consideration based on her facile debut score at Monmouth, in which she drew off from an overmatched field by nearly 8 lengths while racing in hand. This half-sister to last year’s two-year-old champion Vequist clearly possesses dazzling early speed, which she’s since showed off in some flashy workouts at Parx. Stretching out an extra furlong and a half is no easy task, but this talented filly may be up to the challenge. My top pick is the grey filly drawn just to her inside, Pretty Birdie. This Marylou Whitney runner is a homebred through and through, being produced from a sire and dam who both trace back to Whitney’s foundation mare Dear Birdie. She also was very professional in her debut, showing excellent early speed to win by nearly 4 lengths at Churchill Downs. She rated well on the lead that day, offering some hope that she may not be a one-dimensional front-runner. She’s also been flattered by runbacks from that race, as fourth and sixth place finishers both returned to win with respectable speed figures. I slightly prefer her, but I do think this one is likely to be decided by the inside-drawn runners.

Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 2 with 5,8,9

RACE 10: RUSE (#12)
The only real knock I have against the likely favorite Clever Fellow is the expected short price. While he does own some of the fastest speed figures in this field, it’s not as if his margin for error is so great that he deserves to be a substantial favorite. And he’s likely to attract the bulk of public support due to the Chad Brown factor and the presence of Irad Ortiz. He’s also been sent off as a prohibitive favorite in both turf starts and has come up short each time. He figures to be in the mix here, but there’s one alternative in particular who I think will offer significantly better value on the win end. Ruse showed real ability as a 2-year-old when finishing second to the talented Straw Into Gold on Nov. 21 going this same distance at Aqueduct. He arguably ran the best race that day as he chased a quick pace, took over early in upper stretch, and just barely failed to hold on. His only turf start since then came in his return from the layoff last time at Belmont, and he again was arguably best despite finishing second. The early pace of that one-mile affair was quite fast, and he was right on top of the leaders by the half-mile pole. He got run down late by a horse who worked out a perfect trip, but he was subsequently flattered when another runner involved in that early pace, fourth-place finisher Bar Fourteen, returned to win with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This outside draw isn’t ideal, but there’s a long run to the clubhouse turn, and Dylan Davis should be able to use this runner’s tactical speed to slot over into a comfortable spot.

Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 5,7,8
Trifecta: 12 with 8 with 2,3,5,7