by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 10 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 6: 9 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 7: 8 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 1 - 2 - 4 - 7
RACE 1: SARGEANT DRIVE (#4)
I don’t quite trust potential favorite Guy Cabellero, even as he makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez. This horse was obviously once good enough to dominate a race like this, but his form has steadily declined over the past year, even while in the care of trainers like Saffie Joseph and Jorge Navarro. I’m also somewhat concerned about his ability to handle a demanding 9 furlongs over the Saratoga dirt given the way he tends to fade late in his races going shorter. Of the short prices, I prefer his main rival Jerome Avenue. He also has some stamina questions to answer, but at least his overall form is solid, and he’s getting a positive trainer switch to Rob Atras. It’s unclear if there’s much speed in this race outside of Rucksack, so this horse figures to get a great trip up close to the pace. I’m using him prominently, but I’m most intrigued by Linda Rice’s pair of entrants. The more obviously appealing of her two runners is Grit and Glory. He ran very well over this course and distance last year, and you can make some excuses for his recent poor efforts. He was overmatched at Gulfsream back in January and then didn’t handle a muddy track last time. However, I am a little concerned that his best days are behind him, and I actually prefer Sargeant Drive at what may be a better price. This horse comes off a series of resounding defeats, but I think there is reason to believe he is going to turn things around here. He’s getting needed class relief after facing tougher competition at Gulfstream and Aqueduct. Furthermore, he’s stretching back out to a distance he clearly handles and he possesses the tactical speed to work out a decent trip. I didn’t feel that he got the best ride two back at Aqueduct and his last race is not as bad as it seems given the disparity in quality between the top two finishers and the rest of the field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7,8
RACE 3: CARRIZO (#1)
For a five-horse field, I found this race to be a real puzzle. Each of the entrants is flawed, yet all can win. Chad Brown has entered a pair, of which Palomita has earned the superior speed figures. She can win, but I’m fairly skeptical of her. She’s required plenty of time between starts, and was facing a very weak field at this level when last seen at Aqueduct in March. The winner of that race, Sadie Lady, has disappointed in subsequent performances. Furthermore, Palomita hasn’t been successful without the early lead and she may not get it with Palace Avenger in the field. The Wesley Ward trainee is likely to win this race if she runs back to her last effort at Churchill Downs. Both the winner and third-place finisher have returned to validate the quality of that heat. In some ways, she’s the horse to beat, but I’m reticent to accept a short price on a horse who just has that one representative performance. Chad Brown’s other runner Figure of Speech is a real enigma. She looked so full of promise winning her debut at Saratoga last year, and she did earn that Grade 1 placing in the Spinaway thereafter. However, those performances don’t hold up well to scrutiny in retrospect. None who finished behind her have come out of that July 31 maiden field to do anything of note. Figure of Speech failed to impress in her return last time despite getting a great trip, and I’m starting to suspect that she may just not be that good. Since I can find flaws with all of the favorites, I’m going to make the case for the longest shot in this field. Carrizo doesn’t have the upside of the others, but she has run plenty of speed figures that put her in the mix, particularly in her races over this surface in 2019. Her recent form looks spotty, but she ran well in her first start of the winter at Aqueduct and you can throw out her return on turf last time. Over the past 5 years, Dave Cannizzo is 10 for 66 (15%, $2.51 ROI) going from turf to dirt sprints at NYRA. If she can attain a forward early position under Kendrick Carmouche, I think she can upset this group.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5
RACE 5: BIG ENGINE (#4)
Dark Money is the horse to beat as he drops back down in class to compete for the $40,000 tag after beating open allowance foes last time. I wouldn’t view the drop as a negative, since Rudy Rodriguez is just being realistic in assessing that this horse is unlikely to win an open N2X event. He’s earned a number of speed figures that are superior to this group, and he figures to work out a great trip stalking the pair of speeds, Steam Engine and Leaky Cup. I’m not against him, but I also wasn’t thrilled to bet him at a short price. A few horses exit a race at this level on June 19. The Caretaker ran the best race that day, making an early move to the front into a fast pace. He’s a contender, but is another one that I thought could be overbet. Kazmania launched a strong stretch bid that fell just short in that race, but I think he’s better going slightly farther than this 6 furlongs. Thorny Tale earned a field-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his N1X victory on Belmont Stakes day. However, I think he really benefitted from the sloppy conditions that day, as well as the fact that his main rival, Tale of the Union, blew the start. He’s a quintessential “last time was the time” horse. I’m going in a completely different direction. Big Engine really improved over the winter for Linda Rice. He benefitted from a fast pace when he won that N1X back on Dec. 21, but he nevertheless earned a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes him competitive here. He was defeated by Dark Money when last seen on Jan. 9, but the winner had all the best of it that day, setting a slow pace, whereas Big Engine ran deceptively well to close into those dawdling early fractions. He’s returning from a layoff for Linda Rice, who actually has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 19 for 81 (23%, $2.18 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs in dirt sprints at NYRA. If the pace heats up, I think he’ll be charging late at a generous price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7,8
RACE 7: PANDAMOM (#8)
Astoria Kitten and Summer At the Spa are the deserving favorites after hitting the wire together in a photo for second at this level last time. At first glance, it might appear that Astoria Kitten has the upper hand this time, since she has the speed to make the lead here in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early zip. However, I’m a little concerned about this filly stretching back out to the two-turn 1 1/16 miles. She’s bred to be better going shorter, and she hasn’t shown much staying power in her prior two-turn attempts. She’s the horse to beat, but she’s likely to be overbet with Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride, and the Danny Gargan barn has been a little cold over the past three months or so. I prefer Summer At the Spa out of that June 18 affair. She got plenty of pace to close into, but she made a strong run from the back of the pack in her first start in nearly seven months. She has a right to move forward second off the layoff for trainer Jonathan Thomas. They’ll both feature prominently in my plays, but I’m most interested recent maiden winner Pandamom. She was far more professional than in her lone start as a 2-year-old when she won last time, breaking sharply from the gate and turning away all challengers. While she has to run a bit faster to beat this field, she has the right running style for this race and should sit a great trip stalking Astoria Kitten. Christophe Clement notably has encouraging statistics (21 for 105, 20%, $3.18 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in turf routes over the past five years. I think she can take another step forward as the likely third choice in the wagering.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,9
Trifecta: 8 with 1,9 with 1,2,5,7,9
RACE 8: QUEEN ARELLA (#6)
The two fillies who won their debuts at Churchill are likely to dominate the wagering in this Schuylerville. I strongly prefer Beautiful Memories of that pair. This John Oxley homebred was highly touted prior to her debut and drew off to win impressively while never being asked for her best. It wasn’t the fastest heat, but horses who finished behind her have since run back to validate the speed figure and confirm the quality of her performance. I think she’s the most likely winner, but she will have to overcome some obstacles. She never faced a challenge when leading throughout in her debut, and there are plenty of other fillies in this affair who want to be forwardly placed. One of those is her main rival Hopeful Princess, who wore down rival Mad Maddy to prevail in her debut. She was only going 4 1/2 furlongs that day, but she showed plenty of grit and is certainly bred to handle more ground. I’m using both of them, but there are some other runners to consider. I’m intrigued by Queen Arella, who ran a remarkable race to win her debut at Gulfstream in late May. This filly had significant trouble at the start as she was bumped and steadied back to last. Typically it would be impossible for an inexperienced 2-year-old to win from such a position, but this daughter of Speightster unleashed a wild rally on the far turn to loop the field. She easily inhaled the leaders and was geared down in the late stages. TimeformUS assigned that race a strong speed figure of 90, which makes her one of the fastest horses in this field. The owners obviously think highly of her as they set a reserve price of $475,000 when she was a buyback recently at a Keeneland horses of racing age sale. The connections won this race in 2015 with Off the Tracks, and I think they can pull it off again.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,8
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with ALL
RACE 9: MYSTIC GUIDE (#6)
The Peter Pan isn’t residing at its usual spot on the calendar, having this year been transferred to Saratoga, but it has nevertheless attracted a solid group of improving 3-year-olds. I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Mystic Guide, who I believe is just a bit better than his rivals. I’m still of the opinion that this horse could have a strong campaign in stakes during the second half of the season, having done little wrong through his first three starts. He was no match for the enigmatic Tapit to Win in his first start against winners at Belmont, but he put in a deceptively strong effort that day. After attaining a good spot in midpack down the backstretch, Brian Hernandez Jr. attempted to send him through between horses around the far turn and Mystic Guide just never looked comfortable in that precarious position, ultimately having to back out of there before awkwardly altering course at the quarter pole. All things considered, he stayed on well to be second, easily getting the better of today’s rival Country Grammer. If he continues progressing at this rate, this son of Saratoga Grade 1 winner Music Note can notch his first stakes victory in this Peter Pan. I’m not against rival Country Grammer, but I just think he’s going to be overbet in this spot as the only Chad Brown entrant with Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride. The most intriguing new face in this bunch may be Caracaro, who comes off a fast maiden win at Gulfstream back in January. He’s clearly good enough to win a race like this if he’s ready off the layoff, but going nine furlongs in a stakes after being off for so long is a tall order.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 2,3,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2,7 with 2,3,5,7,8