by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 7 - 9
Race 5: 9 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 13 - 16 - 14 - 6
Race 8: 2B - 5 - 1A - 3
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 10: 5 - 1 - 15 - 12
RACE 1: AFTER YOU (#6)
The five main contenders in this race are very evenly matched and figure to be similar prices on the tote board. Golden Tiger and Smile Bryan faced off against each other in a race at this level at Churchill Downs in late May. Golden Tiger carved out moderate fractions on the front end and nearly held on for the victory as Smile Bryan closed belatedly to be fourth. They both ran well, but I wasn’t overly impressed with the performance of either runner. Golden Tiger is likely to attract more support due to his record at this distance, but he will need to run faster in order to beat this field. Senor Jobim seems like a possible alternative, but it’s hard to ignore his poor performance on this circuit at Belmont last time. He did break slowly from the rail that day, which can be detrimental, but he had little to offer thereafter. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with the new face After You. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and After You is expected to be clearly in front in the early going. He flashed some serious speed in his maiden victory last September at Santa Anita, speeding off to a sizable advantage around the far turn before holding sway in the lane. That 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure was recorded in the fall of his 2-year-old season, so one would expect that he would be capable of running significantly faster now as a mature 3-year-old. Neil Drysdale does not have particularly strong statistics of layoffs of this type, but he has shipped horses to New York with intention and this one has been put through his paces at Belmont in preparation for this return. I think he’s going to run quite well, and his best is likely good enough to win.
RACE 4: HE’S NO LEMON (#2)
I’m not taking a particularly clever stance in this race, but I just believe that He’s No Lemon is a very likely winner. This 3-year-old has improved by leap sand bounds ever since Graham Motion stretched him out in distance over the winter. His maiden win at Tampa was stronger than it appears, as weaved his way through traffic on the turn and finished up strongly late. He then was facing a deceptively strong field next time out at Churchill Downs. He closed belatedly for third, but the two that defeated him have done well since. Runner-up Appreciado returned to win an allowance at Ellis Park, and Botswana went on to finish a good third in a tough N2X allowance at Belmont before finishing fourth in the Arlington Handicap with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s No Lemon confirmed that suspected improvement last time with a strong effort at today’s level, making a sweeping move to make an early lead in an oddly-run race before getting run down at the end. Graham Motion got ambitious and actually entered him the Belmont Derby, but he got stuck on the also-eligible list. Now he’s been rerouted to this more realistic spot, and he’s one potential favorite that I’m not trying to beat. His main competitor may come from Everyonelovesjames, but I don’t totally trust this New York-bred after he showed off some undesirable character traits in his win last time, fighting his rider early before drifting out late. He’s the main speed, but the two runners to his outside figure to keep him company early. As long as the pace is fair, He’s No Lemon should be able to run them down.
RACE 9: ROAMING UNION (#6)
The version of Hofburg that we saw last summer at Saratoga will win this race. However, it’s hard to know what to expect from this colt in his 4-year-old debut after he ended his 2018 campaign on such a sour note. His belated late run in the Kentucky Derby garnered him many fans, and he was accordingly bet down to 5-1 odds against Triple Crown winner Justify in the Belmont. He ran a strong third that day and appeared poised for a strong second half of the season. Yet things went awry after the Curlin. He missed the Travers, and then was never a serious factor in the Pennsylvania Derby or Fayette. You can make excuses for those performances, but the fact remains that he’s going to be a short price in this spot despite having not run a competitive race since last summer. He’s obviously the horse to beat, but this may be the right time to take a shot against him. The alternative that I’ve settled upon is Roaming Union. This horse probably won’t win if Hofburg shows up, but I think he stands to take advantage of what is otherwise a fairly weak field if the favorite falters. Roaming Union has shown subtle improvement since the claim. He’s a two-turn kind of horse who is best going this 1 1/8 miles distance. Therefore, I think it’s very encouraging that he ran as well as he did in his two starts for this barn going one turn at Belmont. Timber Ghost, who won his last race, is a solid horse and Roaming Union took a good run at him late, closing relentless despite racing too far off the pace early. He’s best when he gets a more aggressive ride and that should be the case on the stretch-out. I think he’s heading in the right direction for Rob Atras and he figures to be finishing strongly in a race where I don’t trust many.