by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 10 - 11 - 5 - 12
Race 10: 7 - 8 - 2 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I suspect there could be a couple of live first time starters in this field. Feathering (#2) may not have cost much at auction, but she has a nice pedigree, as an Empire Maker-sired half-sister to excellent turf sprinter Big Invasion. Yet Bill Mott has been preparing her for a dirt debut and she shows a strong series of workouts leading up to this start, including a July 2 drill that was in company with graded stakes-placed Shadow Dragon. Mott has done well with his firsters recently, and it would be no surprise if she was ready to fire first time out. Sister Maha (#4) could also attract support off a similarly zippy worktab as she goes out for Todd Pletcher. That July 4 gate drill was in company with an unraced 2-year-old. I’d rather lean towards some runners with experience, and I want to focus on the pair exiting that June 23 race at Belmont. I had liked Stunningly (#1) that day for the stretch-out in distance, since she had run like one that would appreciate added ground. She traveled strongly into the race and was staying on best of all late, just not quite able to reel in the winner. It was nice to see her put it all together, but she was 10-1 on that occasion and figures to be a much shorter price now that her form is exposed. Portage (#8) might have more upside out of that race. She set the pace and got overhauled by the top two in the lane. However, she was hanging on her left lead all the way through the stretch. After the wire, she seemed to regain some focus and galloped out very strongly ahead of the entire field. I don’t mind the turnback to 7 furlongs for her, and she drew well outside. The Linda Rice barn has been sending out live runners, and this filly doesn’t need to improve much to beat this field.
Fair Value:
#8 PORTAGE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 2
Antonio of Venice (#7) was scratched out of a New York-bred maiden event last week to instead contest this auction maiden affair. He looks pretty formidable at first glance, but I have some reservations. He was obviously ready to deliver a big performance on debut when he showed speed and settled for second behind a well-meant Wesley Ward runner. However, he regressed a bit last time, and a couple of horses to run back out of that race last week have since returned with disappointing efforts. I just think others have more upside. Among the firsters, Walstib (#1) is the one who figures to take the most money. Ken McPeek doesn’t have great stats with first time starters, but he did win with one that had Irad aboard at Belmont, and this colt gets Flavien Prat. The last gate workout on July 13 was pretty impressive, as he broke much sharper than a stablemate and always had a significant edge on that one while traveling in hand. He appears to have some ability, but I don’t expect him to be much of a price. I would rather go for Group Ticket (#8), who makes his third career start. This colt showed good speed on debut but got a little tired in the late stages in a race won from off the pace. Then last time he got away to a poor start and got shuffled far back before launching a belated rally and galloping out strongly. It feels like there’s more to this colt than the results indicate, and he gets a big rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz.
Fair Value:
#8 GROUP TICKET, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
Some speed scratched out of this race, which definitely helps Destin’s Mission (#8), who looks like he might be the quickest of them all. This gelding displayed massive improvement when he got on turf two back at Monmouth, dominating a cheap claimer in fast time. He proved that form was no fluke when he finished second in an allowance race last time, beaten only by the classier Biz Biz Buzz. He’s the one to catch, and now won't have to face early pressure from the scratched Heymackit'sjack. Sandrone (#6) is of greater interest to me with that rival out of the race. He ran pretty well off the layoff in April, and then got caught up chasing the very fast pace set by one of today’s rivals last time. He actually held on pretty well for fourth that day, and he should be in position to take over if Destin's Mission falters. The scratches may have compromised Sugar Gray Leonard (#7), who wheels back on short rest for Richard Dutrow. This is obviously a move that he’s well known for, but I thought he was a little disappointing on dirt last week and wonder if he could take too much money again with Irad Ortiz taking over. A couple of horses who ran well in that June 24 race at Belmont interest me. Highly Flammable (#5) chased three-wide the entire way before settling for third in a race dominated on the front end. He’s won going shorter before, so I like this turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs for him. I also think King James (#1) makes plenty of sense exiting that same race, and he should be a better price. He got a pretty good trip, but had to wait on the rail last time and tried to rally between foes in the stretch. He’s been in pretty solid form for Chad Summer, and seems like one that should benefit from this rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. He figures to fall into the right trip on the turnback.
Fair Value:
#1 KING JAMES, at 4-1 or greater
#6 SANDRONE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
This optional claimer marks the return of 3-year-old Ari Gold (#1), who looked so promising last year when dominating the Pulpit at Gulfstream. He led that race from gate to wire, and projects to be the early speed here as well. However, he’s stepping up into a pretty tough spot off the layoff, and needs to produce the best race of his career to beat a hardened group of older runners. He’s obviously a contender, but not the kind of horse I want to bet at a short price. Exact Estimate (#7) and James Aloysius (#5) also figure to take money in this spot especially with the former going out for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. Exact Estimate has really improved since the switch to turf. However, I wasn’t thrilled with his last victory, where he had to work hard to beat an inferior group. James Aloysius couldn’t reel in a couple of classy rivals in a stakes at Monmouth last time, but his speed figures had been trending in the right direction prior to that. My top pick is another 4-year-old in the field. Chasing the Crown (#10) has really come to hand since returning this winter at Gulfstream. He ran well after making an early move into a fast pace when beaten by future Grade 1 winner Up to the Mark, and then was compromised by a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures) in a February allowance. He tried this distance at Churchill two back and produced his most visually impressive effort, rallying to dominate an overmatched field with a field-best 123 TimeformUS Figure. He stepped up to this level last time and crossed the wire second before being disqualified for interference. However, I thought he ran well within the context of that race, making an early move to lead before getting run down by the classy Easter. That foe is tougher than any rival he meets here. Chasing the Crown is drawn in a tough post position, but he possesses the tactical speed to overcome it if Franco can time his move correctly. The one other horse I would include at a bigger price is Whisper Not (#11). He can be difficult to ride, since he tends to get rank early in his races. However, he has settled better when using a more aggressive style in the past, and he could be dangerous if Tyler Gaffalione utilizes his speed from this outside draw.
Fair Value:
#10 CHASING THE CROWN, at 3-1 or greater