PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 7
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   9 - 6 - 2 - 7

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: PALACE COUP (#6)

I have no argument against #5 Perceived being the horse to beat in this starter handicap. He was a decisive winner at this level last time, closing well from off the pace to win going a mile at Belmont. However, he was 19-1 that day and could go off favored this time. Horses like this are often poor bets, especially with older horses whose form can be somewhat unreliable. Perceived will beat this field if repeating his last effort, but he’s never raced around two turns on dirt before, and he’s being asked to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles here. The horse he ran down last time, #4 No Burn, is back in this spot, but I have similar concerns about him getting the distance. He stopped going 9 furlongs at Aqueduct over the winter, though he was meeting a better field that day. I’m going in a different direction with #6 Palace Coup. It seemed like horses did best staying out of the kickback on the dirt last week, so I like that he’s a runner with tactical speed drawn outside. He’s run plenty of prior dirt routes that give him a big shot against this field, and even his recent form makes him a good fit. He put in a strong effort when elevated to victory two back, as unofficial winner Eastside Cool has been in great form and would be a short price in this spot. He regressed slightly off the layoff last time, but now he’s been claimed by Joe Sharp. Sharp is 17 for 53 (32%, $2.41 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the past 5 years.

WIN: #6 Palace Coup, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 3: HATCH (#2)

With this race coming off the turf to be contested at a mile on the main track, I think my original turf pick #2 Hatch becomes even more dangerous. This gelding was clearly a work in progress early in his career, running greenly even when he broke his maiden at Turfway over the winter. Yet he’s been putting things together in recent starts. His last race at Churchill on dirt is a lot better than it looks, as he was making a winning move at the head of the lane, at which point he got completely sawed off in traffic. I liked him getting on turf and think he was claimed for that surface, but he obviously has dirt form than is better than it looks and shoud be able to beat this field.

WIN: #2 Hatch, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 4: V MART (#5)

There are a couple of second time starters who could attract support in this first division of two auction restricted maiden races. #1 Run Poppy was sent off as the 4-5 favorite in a similar spot at Churchill, but ran like a horse who may have needed the race. He was a little sluggish in the early stages and only seemed to hit his best stride once he felt the presence of #2 Smart Prize to his outside. That Mark Casse runner got off to a poor start that day and was making a big run off the far turn, but could never get past Run Poppy through the lane. They both make some sense here, and Run Poppy could take some Steve Asmussen money. Yet Asmussen is just 5 for 30 (17%, $0.88 ROI) with 2YO maiden second time starters on dirt at Saratoga over the past 5 years. Among those with experience, I much prefer #6 Clear the Deck. I think this Ken McPeek trainee has run well in both starts to date. He was off a bit slowly in his debut, but I liked the way he finished up despite riding the rail. He was far more aggressive second time out, but got an uncomfortable trip. He was shuffled back in the opening furlongs, and then had to alter course in the lane when running out of room between rivals. I still think there’s another step forward and he could be a better price. Yet my top pick is first time starter #5 V Mart. I get the sense that this Monmouth shipper could be a live one. Trainer Juan Avila doesn’t have great 5-year stats with firsters, but he’s 4 for 12 (33%, $2.98 ROI) over the past year with first time starters in sprints. I liked this colt’s 10 1/5 workout at the OBS sale, and he actually has some pedigree. Hard Spun is a versatile sire, and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude. He sports a pretty eye-catching worktab for the debut. Notably, that bullet June 25 workout matches this barn’s older runner Breakthrough, who exited that drill to win an allowance race with an 82 Beyer.

WIN: #5 V Mart, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6