by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   10 - 3 - 6 - 11
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 9 - 3
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 10:   11 - 3 - 4 - 1

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: TAKE IT TO SCALE (#2)
Potential favorite Wonder In won for a higher price tag when racing for the N2L condition at Gulfstream last time, but this is nevertheless a subtle step up in class. He was claimed out of that last race by Jorge Navarro, and is now with Rob Atras due to a trainer switch. They’re running him at the level where he belongs, but I’m just not thrilled with any of his dirt races and think others are more intriguing. Carthon is another horse who could attract some support, and he’s a difficult runner to assess. He has primarily been competing against tougher foes at the New York-bred N2X level, but he does his best work over longer distances. He’s also a runner who likes to be forwardly placed and he could be outrun in the early portion of this sprint event. I won’t be shocked when he does well here, but I’m expecting some sort of regression. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and Take It to Scale is depicted with a clear early advantage. One would imagine that David Cohen will try to get aggressive with this horse, and I think he’s a real threat to take them all the way up front. He finished off the board in his first start off the claim for Gary Gullo, but he was returning from a layoff and was in for the claiming tag waiver. Furthermore, that was an unusually tougher $20,000 conditioned claimer, as each of the top three finishers are former allowance-type runners. I think he’s going to move forward from that start and he’s fast enough to contend here if able to produce his best effort.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,8
 

RACE 5: INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM (#7)
Ahead of Plan has had trouble putting starts together, and he again returns from a lengthy layoff as he makes just his fourth career appearance as a 4-year-old. This will also be his first start as a new gelding after a turf experiment failed last summer. Getting back to dirt seems like the right move, and he merely has to repeat the performance he put forth in his debut as a 2-year-old to beat this field. However, one has to wonder if he’s still capable of producing top efforts after enduring so many setbacks. O’Trouble arguably has more upside as a 3-year-old making his second start off a layoff. He was unfortunate to run into a very promising first time starter in his return last time, as Happy Saver dominated that affair. However, I was a little disappointed that O’Trouble couldn’t hang on for second given the relatively moderate early pace. He has a right to step forward in his second start off the layoff, but I suspect that he’s run into yet another first time starter with limitless potential. Instinctive Rhythm makes his debut George Weaver, and this horse appears to have ability. He sold for $350,000 as the OBS March sale as a 2-year-old following a dazzling 10-flat workout, in which he displayed a massive stride. Since then it’s taken a while to get him to the races, but he appears to be working extremely well for his unveiling. Notably, that June 19 bullet drill was in company with this barn’s stakes runner Majestic Dunhill. Furthermore, George Weaver is a strong 6 for 24 (25%, $2.75 ROI) with 3-year-old and older first time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. I’m expecting this one to be live on the board and deliver.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 2,4,6
 

RACE 6: SIMPLICITY (#8)
Balon Rose is the horse to beat as she makes her second start off the layoff. She’s been short prices a number of times during her career and has disappointed more often than not. Yet you can make a legitimate excuse for her last race. She was getting a good trip saving ground down along the inside behind a slow pace. Tyler Gaffalione attempted to find a seam for her along the hedge at the top of the stretch, but the hole quickly closed up and she was forced to steady in traffic approaching the eighth pole. She’s obviously better than that, but it’s not like she’s a cinch in this race based on those speed figures she earned against maidens late last year. Let’s remember that she got a perfect trip when she broke her maiden at Aqueduct last November and she didn’t run that much better than today’s rival Kelleycanrun when those two met in September. She can win, but I suspect she’ll be overbet in this spot. I’m not thrilled with any of the familiar faces in this race, so I want to take a shot with first time import Simplicity. This filly returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement, who doesn’t have the greatest statistics with horses making their first starts in North America. Yet she did face some classy foes in France last year and will stack up well against this field if she brings that form to the United States. You see names like Platane, Obligate, Suphala, and Fount in her past performances from 2019, and all of those fillies went on to become group stakes winners on turf in France last year. Christophe Clement has been enjoying a strong start to this meet, and I think he’s found a good spot to unveil this filly.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5,9
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,5,9
 

RACE 7: BERTRANDA (#10)
This race has been significantly altered by scratches. Out of the remaining members of the field, Fierce Lady may go off as the slight favorite as she makes her first start off a trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez. This precocious filly did some nice things early in her career, but she tailed off over the winter. She’s been in training with the new barn for a while, so she should be ready to fire, and her speed makes her dangerous. I prefer her to Rudy Rodriguez's other entrant Puffery, who typically runs competitive speed figures but just never gets the job done at this level. Yet I want to look elsewhere. My top pick is Bertranda. This filly has been in career form so far in 2020. She posted a lifetime best speed figure back in February, and returned with a pair of solid runner-up finishes at the Belmont meet. She ran an excellent race to just miss two back after surviving a taxing pace duel. And then last time, I was not a fan of the ride she got. She looked like the clear speed on paper, and Benjy Hernandez seemed intent on restraining her off the eventual winner Timely Tradition. This mare does better with an aggressive ride, and I would imagine Irad Ortiz will be instructed to get her into a forward early position from this outside post position.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,6,11
 

RACE 8: ETHOS (#8)
French Reef is a bit of an enigma as he returns from a layoff for his 4-year-old debut. This gelding came into his Aqueduct debut with some hype based on a series of headstrong drills. Yet, to his detriment, that aggressive tendency that he displayed in his morning workouts also showed up in the afternoon. He was uncontrollable through the early stages of that race as he attempted to run off under Javier Castellano. He eventually settled down around the far turn, but he had already exerted too much energy and was swallowed up by late runners in the stretch. Given those character flaws, Chad Brown is probably making a wise decision to turn him all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. However, this is not a typical move for the barn. Only one horse in the past 5 years has gone from a route to a sprint in its second start for Chad Brown, and while that horse won, it was a 7-furlong sprint at Belmont. I expect French Reef to run well, but I’m not interested in betting him at a short price. Its a Wrap makes plenty of sense as an alternative after running well in his turf debut. He got a pretty good trip from off the pace and just wasn’t quite good enough, but he makes sense in a spot like this. I’ll use both of these, but my top pick is a first time turfer. Ethos returns from a layoff after making one start on dirt last year. He took some money to get bet down to 5-1, and showed brief speed before fading. Jimmy Jerkens doesn’t have the best numbers off layoffs, but this horse is clearly bred to improve with this surface switch. He’s a half-brother to turf winner Four Knights, and his second dam is the excellent broodmare Meghan’s Joy, who has foaled top turf runners Ironicus and On Leave, among others.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,9
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,3,9