by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 6 - 9 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 12 - 9
Race 7: 3 - 11 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 8 - 1 - 9 - 2
Race 11: 6 - 12 - 5 - 4
RACE 3: LUCKY MOVE (#1)
The likely favorite in this race is the lightly raced Ratajkowski. It took this 5-year-old mare a long time to get to the races, but she has shown ability in her two sprint starts. She obviously benefited from her debut, as she was far more professional in the slop last time, quickly establishing the lead before widening late. There’s talent here, but negotiating an additional three furlongs is no small feat. Her sire, Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer, connects with 16 percent of his dirt-route starters. While some of her siblings handled route distances, none of them displayed a distinct preference for longer trips. She’s going to be the controlling speed and perhaps that will be enough to get her home, but I’m always reticent to accept short prices on horses trying something for the first time. The best alternative that I can come up with is Lucky Move, who ships in from Churchill Downs. We’ve seen Kentucky shippers do quite well so far at this meet, owing to the strong racing product that they put out this spring. This mare has made one prior start against New York-breds, and she disappointed at this level. However, that was going six furlongs, and she’s clearly better over route distances. The 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in that one-mile race at Churchill last time won’t get it done here, but I liked the way she was finishing in a race where the pace held together. She has the body type of a horse that wants to run all day, so I love this nine-furlong distance for her. This barn has only started one horse in New York prior to this, and that runner (Botswana) ran quite well to be third in a tough allowance race at Belmont.
RACE 4: SHENNAN (#6)
Bail Out is obviously good enough to win a race like this, the chief concern being that he hasn’t done so yet. He has flirted with favoritism in three straight starts yet has failed to deliver a knockout punch despite being very much in the fight in deep stretch each time. Trainer Shug McGaughey is an expert at developing horses like this over time, so perhaps the stretch out to a marathon distance will do the trick. He’s the horse to beat, but is starting to run out of chances and this is a competitive affair. I’m trying to beat him with Irish import Shennan. This colt was bred and previously owned by the Aga Khan and has arrived in this country through a private purchase. He doesn’t hail from his breeder’s most productive family tree, but he did display some ability in his first two starts overseas. I was quite impressed by his effort last time, when he closed to be second after a very wide trip around a bend over what appeared to be testing ground. The Timeform Foreign comments for the race indicate that he is “likely to progress further, particularly when tackling 1 1/4m,” so more distance is expected to help his cause. Based on his Timeform Ratings in the low 90s, he stacks up nicely against this group. Over the past five years, trainer Mark Casse is 3 for 9 (33 percent, $2.36 ROI) with foreign shippers off trainer switches on turf. Shennan looked to be doing well in a local workout recently, and I won’t be surprised if it turns out that he has real upside in this country.
RACE 9: GOLD FOR THE KING (#1)
There are four main contenders in the John Morrissey Stakes, and they are very difficult to separate. The Pace Projector is predicting that Eye Luv Lulu may have the upper hand in this field due to his early speed in a situation that is predicted to favor the front-runner. Eye Luv Lulu is always dangerous in these New York-bred stakes events, and he’s coming into this year’s Morrissey off an impressive set of speed figures. He ran extremely well to be second in the Affirmed Success last time, chasing a fast pace before getting run down by the classy Pat On the Back. I’m using him prominently, but I prefer another in the top slot. My selection in this race is Gold for the King, who should sit a good trip stalking Eye Luv Lulu in the opening furlongs. This gelding was placed quite ambitiously off the layoff, tackling open-stakes foes, including Catalina Cruiser, in the Grade 2 True North. He actually ran a respectable race to finish a close sixth, but Gold for the King is the type of runner who almost always improves with a start under his belt following a layoff. We saw that most recently when he exploded with breakout wins on July 7 and Nov. 18 of last year. He lost at short prices a couple of times over this past winter, but you can make some excuses for those races. I like that he’s getting Joel Rosario back aboard, and he appears to be training well into this race. The other two runners to consider are Celtic Chaos and Build to Suit, but I’m somewhat concerned that both may be pace-compromised in this spot. Build to Suit has more tactical speed, but it’s hard to trust a horse that’s made just one start since October 2017. He was impressive in that January 2019 allowance victory, but the waters get much deeper here. Celtic Chaos always comes with that reliable late run, but he often has trouble finding the winner’s circle against stakes foes.
RACE 10: [off the turf]
This race was taken off the turf.
RACE 11: [off the turf]
This race was taken off the turf.