by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: Cancelled
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 10 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 5: 4 - 1A - 5 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 8: 2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 10: 1 - 4 - 13 - 5
RACE 6: LAND MINE (#1)
Alberobello figures to attract support as she attempts to stretch out in distance for the first time. She’s a half-sister to 4 stakes winners, a couple of which won routing, including Grade 1 Frizette winner A Z Warrior. However, it’s asking a lot of any filly to stretch out from 6 1/2 furlongs to this demanding 9-furlong trip. She figures to have company on the front end from Tigalulu, who was a visually impressive debut winner at Belmont last month. Alberobello earned a respectable speed figure for that score, but she didn’t have to overcome much adversity as she secured the lead from the start and widened late. This filly may possess real ability, but she was facing a very weak field last time and I’d like to see her duplicate that effort against real competition before supporting her. I’m more interested in horses that I know possess the stamina to get 1 1/8 miles. One of those is Indy Union, who gets some needed class relief after facing graded stakes company in two straight starts. However, her plodding style always puts her up against it from a pace standpoint. Hail is an intriguing new face as she returns from a lengthy layoff for Bill Mott. While she didn’t run particularly fast last winter, I thought she showed some promise. She’s certainly bred to do better as a half-sister to champion Close Hatches, and she apparently worked in company with top 3-year-old Hofburg on July 8 and 15. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Land Mine. She, too, is coming off an extended layoff, and I’m aware that Phil Serpe does not have very strong numbers in this situation. However, this filly has been prepped extensively in the morning, as each of her last 7 workouts leading into this start have come at distances ranging from 5 furlongs to one mile. She doesn’t appear to be a particularly stout horse, but she clearly possesses tons of stamina as she has steadily pulled away from her foes in her last three dirt starts. Like Hail, she’s bred to be a nice one as a half-sister to the versatile Bar of Gold, and I like that she’s already shown the ability to handle the distance in the slop at Saratoga. Many will recall that Bar of Gold was a monster over wet racetracks and there’s plenty of rain in the forecast ahead of Thursday.
RACE 9: RUNAWAY LUTE (#6)
Eye Luv Lulu is a formidable presence in this John Morrissey. He has been in razor sharp form for Jason Servis this spring. He ran to his solid tote support when winning the Affirmed Success back in April, earning one of the highest speed figures of his career. Servis then chose an awfully ambitious spot for his most recent start, as he knocked heads against some of the top sprinters in the country in the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship. All things considered, he ran well to be third that day after making an early move to the lead coming to midstretch. If he repeats that performance, he’s going to be difficult for this field to beat. Furthermore, the prospect of a wet track would only enhance his chances, as 7 for his 10 career victories have come over wet surfaces. I’m using him prominently here, and I actually prefer him to the two other horses likely to take money. Long Haul Bay has done little wrong through five career starts. He doesn’t run that frequently, but he’s displayed immense talent in his few appearances. Yet, while he ran well to be second in the Maryland Sprint Championship last, that wasn’t the strongest graded stakes event and I don’t think he’s getting much class relief here. Gold for the King has always been a good horse, but he had never before showed the kind of power that was on display in his commanding 5 3/4-length win last time. He earned massive Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the performance, as he showed uncharacteristic early speed. Today the scenario is going to be much different, as he will have to rate and put top performances back-to-back, something he has had trouble doing recently. I also think it’s somewhat interesting that his regular rider Joel Rosario has instead landed on Runaway Lute. I think this Gary Contessa up-and-comer is dangerous in this spot and he’s my top pick. This horse hinted at possessing extraordinary ability when he was unveiled as a 2-year-old, but things quickly got derailed as his past performances became littered with poor efforts and layoffs. I don’t know what new changes were made prior to his most recent comeback attempt, but it’s clearly working. He ran deceptively well in his return from the layoff on June 10, as he chased a fast pace that ultimately collapsed, and had to wait in traffic before coming through inside. He confirmed that the performance was no fluke next time out with a commanding win at the N2X allowance level, as he blazed 7 furlongs in 1:21 1/5 seconds. Some may be concerned about a wet track given his lone poor run over one as a 2-year-old, but he’s a different horse these days. His 3-furlong blowout last Thursday indicates that he’s maintaining his sharp form, and I think he’s got a legitimate chance to pull off the upset.