PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 5 - 4 - 10
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 10 - 9 - 11
Race 6:   5 - 11 - 12 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 7 - 11
Race 10:   8 - 11 - 12 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 7: TOM’S D’ETAT (#2)

Splashtastic is likely to go off as the favorite in this race, but I don't think he has that much margin for error, so I'm trying to beat him. While he finished just behind stakes winner Touchofstarquality and ahead of Belmont Stakes runner-up Destin last time, I'm not sure that field was quite so strong in retrospect. The winner came back to put forth a non-effort in this next start, and another runner returned to register a much lower speed figure in his subsequent race. Splashtastic was wide all the way around the far turn, but that's not quite so detrimental at Belmont Park. Furthermore, I think he's a horse that prefers one-turn races, and I want runners with more tactical speed. One of those is Bellamy Way, who beat a weaker field last time, but should appreciate stretching out to two turns. However, my top pick is Tom's d'Etat. I know that he wasn't beating much last time, either, but I liked the way that he did it, easily taking command on the far turn before drawing off in the stretch. He and the runner-up were nearly 10 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. I can excuse his effort two back since he didn't care for the mud and sustained a wide trip over a rail-biased surface. A mile and an eighth is the perfect distance for this horse, and he can use his positional speed to get the jump on his main rivals.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 8: BLUE BAHIA (#6)
Of the two Chad Brown runners, I prefer Ancient Secret. I know that she's been a bit of a disappointment in her first two starts of the season, but she actually had minor trouble two back and was just beaten by a tougher pair of runners last time. I don't mind the turnback to this sprint distance given how effective she was sprinting early in her career. Brown's other entrant Ava's Kitten is more of a sprinter, but I was not a fan of her return at Belmont last time. Ultimately, I'm going to try to beat both of them with Blue Bahia for Jason Servis. Her last win at Monmouth was a sight to behold. She was covered up in traffic until the eighth pole, but burst through as soon as she found a seam and won going away in impressive fashion. That was the best race she's ever run, but Jason Servis knows how to keep these turf sprinters in top form. Over the past five years, he is 25 for 74 (34 percent, $2.74 ROI) with last-out winner in turf sprints. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,8
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with ALL

RACE 9: CANDID DESIRE (#8)
This is one of the deepest John Morrissey fields I can recall. There's no clear favorite, and so many runners appear to have legitimate chances. Weekend Hideaway, the 2014 Morrissey winner, was installed as the morning-line favorite. He's been in great form recently, and should appreciate this slight turnback to six and a half furlongs after just outlasting the talented Diversify going a mile last time. However, he will have to avoid getting caught up in what should be an honest pace, with speeds like Bustin It and Breakin the Fever drawn outside of him. I think this race could come apart in the late stages, so I want to primarily focus on closers. The one that I think will offer the best value is Candid Desire. I know it appears that he's gone slightly off form, but a closer examination of his recent races reveals that he's had excuses. He's never cared for a wet track, so I can forgive his last effort. Prior to that, he ran well against a solid open company field in May. When he last met some of today's runners in the Affirmed Success, he was hampered when trying to rally through traffic in the stretch, whereas eventual winner Celtic Chaos worked out a clear run outside. I think he could get ignored here, and he's talented enough to win.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,7,11,12