PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 8 - 2 - 10
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   1/1A - 2 - 11 - 9
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 16 - 9

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: DEVIL BOY (#8)

Morning line favorite #6 Ocean’s Reserve has returned in solid form this year, putting forth performances that would typically be enough to win at this level in each of his last two starts. However, he got a whiff of victory on both of those occasions and was turned away. He appeared to put his head in front, or at least get on even terms with his rivals, in deep stretch of both of those narrow losses before settling for second. He’s a deserving favorite here, he’s again facing some rivals with talent and it’s hard to completely trust him if he has to fight for it. I’m going in a different direction with #8 Devil Boy, who finished just behind the favorite on June 9. This 4-year-old colt has obvious talent, but possesses one major flaw – he can’t seem to get out of the starting gate. He’s broken slowly in all of his races, so it has to be assumed that he’ll do so again. That said, the good news is that he’s drawn an outside post position, so it’s unlikely that he’ll be shuffled back after a slow start. He does his best running from off the pace anyway, and should at least be able to travel into the race outside, clear of kickback. I thought he did well to close into a moderate pace last time, and now he’s third off a 180+ day layoff for Jeremiah Englehart, who is 8 for 32 (25%, $2.73 ROI) making that move at NYRA over the past 5 years. I’d also consider #3 Two for Charging and #4 Compromiser, who each need to bounce back from poor efforts last time. Yet they also have to work out trips from off the pace in a race that doesn’t feature much speed.

WIN: #8 Devil Boy, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6: PEGS A. K. GIRL (#2)

Among the short prices, I think #3 Birthday Time is the most likely winner as she drops in class for Todd Pletcher. She ran reasonably well on turf at Gulfstream two back, and didn’t get an ideal trip when racing for a $75k tag at Belmont last time. She got steadied out of position on the backstretch and was always playing catch-up, unable to make a run when spun wide into the lane. I expect a better effort out of her this time, but I also don’t love the idea of taking a short price on anyone in this field. #4 Public Service does at least have some upside as one of the other logical contenders. She was arguably best last time when making a wide move into the lane in a spot where the top two finishers rode the rail. She can win here if she displays any improvement off the claim for Mike Maker. The short price that I don’t want is #10 Investment Income. I just don’t think she’s run particularly well in any of her recent starts, and she’s stuck in an unfavorable post position here. My top pick is #2 Pegs A. K. Girl at what figures to be a more generous price. She faced better rivals in both starts as a 2-year-old. I still think Customer List, who beat her on debut at Monmouth, is a Chad Brown runner with some talent. And she was certainly facing a field of quality two back at Belmont when fading after stalking the pace. She got good trips on both of those occasions, but she nevertheless strikes me as a candidate to improve on the class drop as she returns for her 3-year-old season.

WIN: #2 Pegs A. K. Girl, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 3,4

RACE 7: EVAN SING (#1)

#8 Boston Tea Party figures to go favored here as he drops out of stakes company. He was simply no match for the talented Annapolis in the Manila, and he also may have not appreciated the stretch-out to a mile. Turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit him based on how well he ran in his career debut. However, he clearly was a horse who was cranked up to win that day and he may have to produce a similar performance to beat this field. You also have to take a short price on a rider who hasn’t had much success so far at the meet. I’m not particularly fond of some others who could take money in this spot. #3 Ring of Fire is typically a short price in these races, but I think he’s meeting a tougher field than the one he faced last time at this level. Of those exiting N1X races on this circuit, I’m more interested in #6 Thin White Duke, who is turning back in distance. He had sprint success early in his career, and hasn’t really been finishing off his recent route attempts. My top pick is #1 Evan Sing. I really liked the visual of this 3-year-old’s debut at Fair Grounds, which has been his only turf sprint to date. He traveled well into the race and won pretty comfortably. Since then I thought he put in a good effort second time out at Churchill and then just didn’t get the distance after chasing an honest pace last time. I like the turnback for him and he possesses the tactical speed to work out a trip from the rail.

WIN: #1 Evan Sing, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 6,8