PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   9 - 5 - 11 - 3
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 11 - 2
Race 6:   7 - 6 - 1/1A - 8
Race 7:   11 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   1/1A - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 10:   10 - 1 - 4 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 2: MO FAITH (#2)
Straw Into Gold is clearly the horse to beat as he comes off a solid third-place finish in the Manila behind some talented open company 3-year-olds. He got a great trip in that race, sitting just in behind eventual winner Original while racing along the hedge, and he was just unable to land a blow through the stretch. Prior to that he had been a decent New York-bred N1X allowance winner when allowed to set a moderate pace. It’s possible that he’s just improved, but I tend to think he’s coming into this race a little overrated off that Manila performance. Cold Hard Cash appears to be the main rival after running well in both turf starts at Belmont. He just missed at this level two back after leading in mid-stretch. Then last time he was simply second-best behind an improved effort from Klickitat. Cold Hard Cash is a threat to the favorite, but I’m most interested in a horse who finished well behind him last time. Mo Faith checked in last in that July 2 affair, but he didn’t get the best trip after chasing 3 to 4-wide throughout. Perhaps this once-promising 4-year-old has just gone the wrong way, but I’m optimistic that he can turn things around here with the switch back to Jose Ortiz. He won a tough maiden heat against open company on debut at Gulfstream, and then gamely fended off today’s favorite Straw Into Gold at Aqueduct. He’s been taken off the pace in both starts since, and I’m hoping Jose Ortiz rides him more aggressively here. This is his last chance, but the price should be fair.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7

RACE 9: FOOLISH GHOST (#7)
I’ll be interested to see how the public handles these two Michelle Nevin runners, either of whom could go favored. My Boy Tate has the better overall résumé, but he can be a little hard to trust at times. He threw in one of his occasional clunkers at Parx last time, failing to get involved over a sloppy main track as the even-money favorite. Now he returns off a brief freshening and would obviously be formidable if able to recapture top form. Our Last Buck is arguably more of a wild card since we haven’t seen him in over half a year. He was in the best form of his career over the winter at Aqueduct, following up an allowance score with a strong effort to win the Say Florida Sandy over My Boy Tate. However, now he has to prove that he can reach that same level off the bench. Wudda U Think Now is probably the most reliable option despite the fact that he exits a couple defeats at the allowance level. He was facing some very talented 3-year-olds in those races and was hardly disgraced either time. He’s posted consistent speed figures and handles this distance. I consider him the horse to beat, but I’m going in a different direction. While there is a bit of speed in this field, no one is as fast in the early going as Foolish Ghost. I’ll be somewhat surprised if horses like Wudda U Think Now and Runningwscissors are sacrificed to go after him, so it’s possible that Foolish Ghost could be allowed to set a comfortable pace. He’s been in razor sharp form lately, with his only poor effort coming when he missed the break at Aqueduct in April. He ran especially well last time, as he got early pressure from a foe and still ran away from the field late. Horses have come back to validate that speed figure, and I think he’s very dangerous even stretching out an extra half-furlong.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,8