by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 3: 6 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 8 - 10
Race 6: 10 - 5 - 8 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 10: 14 - 3 - 7 - 4
RACE 1: LOOKIN DYNAMIC (#3)
You have to admire a horse like Sugar Fix. She’s won her last 4 turf starts in a row, and has crossed the wire in front in 6 of her last 7 turf races. Obviously most of those victories have come against cheaper company and she may have to improve a bit to beat this field. However, she’s the proven turf horse in a race where none of her competitors have won a race on this surface. That could easily change, as a few of them are bred for turf, but they all have something prove. Tonal Vision seems like the biggest danger, as Tonalist has gotten a few turf runners and she’s a half-sister to 3 turf winners. This filly merely needs to transfer her solid dirt form to turf in order to beat this field, but you’re taking the worst of it from a value standpoint accepting a short price on a horse trying a new surface for the first time. If I’m going to take one of the alternatives, I want a price. Therefore, I’ve landed on Lookin Dynamic. This horse only tried turf once in her debut going a distance that is too short for her. She subsequently improved going longer on the dirt, but I’m intrigued by this surface switch as she returns from a layoff. Her dam won one of three starts on the turf and she is a half-sister to one turf winner. While it’s not an overwhelming turf pedigree, Michael Trombetta has brought some live runners to New York, and I think this filly deserves another chance on the grass.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6
RACE 2: MAJESTIC VIEW (#6)
Unrelenting Force is likely to go favored in this spot as he returns from a layoff. This gelding made one start off the claim for Ray Handal over the winter at Aqueduct, finishing a good second in a maiden special weight event. That was a going a mile, but he’s run well sprinting in the past, so this cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs makes sense off the long break. The only knock against this favorite is that Ray Handal is 0 for 19 with horses returning off layoffs of 90 to 180 days on the dirt. I’m using him, but I’m more interested in an alternative at a better price. Majestic View switches back to dirt after a turf experiment failed earlier this month at Belmont. That’s not terribly surprising, since he really does have more of a dirt pedigree. This will be his first attempt over a fast track, but he did run quite well over a muddy dirt surface in his first start. The pace of that race was very fast, and Majestic View was aggressively ridden chasing early leader Midnight Whiskey before both faded in a race dominated by closers. Notably, Midnight Whiskey returned to win his next start against maiden special weight foes at Saratoga. There isn’t nearly as much pace signed on this time, and Majestic View could find himself in front early. I think this horse has more ability than his past performance lines indicate, and this drop in class should benefit him.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,8,9
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,7,8,9
RACE 5: OPT (#2)
Rinaldi is the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff while returning to the site of last summer’s stakes victory. He lost as the 8-5 favorite in his comeback at Belmont, but he still ran fairly well for this level. He was up close stalking a slow pace that day and just couldn’t quite keep pace with the gate-to-wire winner Worth a Shot in the late stages. He has a right to move forward off that performance, but he’s now asked to go 1 1/16 miles again, and I think it’s reasonable to question whether he wants to go this far. Based on that June 26 performance, I can’t justify taking him instead of Opt, who finished just behind him. Unlike Rinaldi, Opt took a significant step forward in his 4-year-old debut, overcoming that slow pace to rally from last into third. Neither horse was on the advantageous rail that day, but Opt was widest of all while closing through the stretch. It appears that this Robert Ribaudo trainee has turned a corner. The pace may be in Rinaldi’s favor again in this spot, but I don’t think Opt has to be quite as far back as he was last time. He also may just be the superior horse now that both have matured. He’s my top pick, as I prefer both of these runners to the other horse that is likely to attract support. Graded on a Curve could challenge Rinaldi for favoritism off the strength of his runaway victory against N1X company last month at Belmont. While he was visually impressive and earned a competitive speed figure, he was flattered by getting a fast pace to close into against a much weaker field. Furthermore, he twice lost to Opt at Saratoga last year, so why should we accept a shorter price on him this time?
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,8
Trifecta: 2 with 5,8,10 with 5,8,10
RACE 6: MALIBU ANTHEM (#10)
Checksandbalances figures to attract support here primarily due to the connections. She was bet down to favoritism in a tougher $75,000 maiden claimer last month at Belmont, but I didn’t think she did any meaningful running in that spot. This barn typically has horses ready to fire in their debuts and I’m not willing to accept a short price on this one despite the drop in class. More Mango makes a bit more sense to me. She made a solid bid in midstretch before flattening out at this level last time. I don’t love that she lost second that day, but it was her first start off a layoff and she has room for improvement. Yet I want to go in a different direction. Kitten’s Romance makes sense after running reasonably well in her Kentucky debut for Wesley Ward. I even wouldn’t discount Valletta as she gets back on turf and makes her first start for a tag. Yet my top pick is first time turfer Malibu Anthem. Malibu Moon can get turf runners and this filly’s dam handled the turf. It’s not the most convincing turf pedigree you’ll ever see, but this filly gives me the impression that grass may be the answer for her. She worked impressively over a synthetic track at OBS as a 2-year-old, and she’s subsequently run well routing in dirt maiden claimers. She has to step up her game a little bit to beat this field, but I think this could be the right spot for her.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,7,8,11
RACE 8: OUT OF TROUBLE (#4)
A few of the main contenders in this race exit victories at the N1X level, so they all have something to prove as they step up against a tougher field. Myhartblongstodady would be tough for these to handle if she’s able to repeat her last effort at Aqueduct, but circumstances are different today. She got a strong pace to close into in that last victory and saved ground every step of the way. That start also came for Chad Brown and now she’s trained by Jorge Abreu, who is just 1 for 26 (4%, $0.35 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on turf over the past 5 years. I’m using her, but others could offer better value. Barrel of Destiny makes sense as she seeks her fourth consecutive victory. Mike Maker has been enjoying a very strong week and this mare is in career form right now. I’ll use both of them but I’m most interested in Out of Trouble. This mare has competed well at this level in the past, but her last race is a bit of a head scratcher. I don’t know what the plan was, but her rider took her much farther off the early pace than she was expected to be and she was just left with far too much ground to make up in the stretch. She’s generally been more effective going a little longer, so this distance suits her. She’s hard to trust off that last race, but she was running competitive speed figures against tougher horses prior to that, so I’m going to hope that she can rebound.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,8
RACE 9: AMUNDSON (#4)
It’s pretty easy to separate the runners in this John Morrissey field into two groups – those with strong recent form and those without. The former group is the smaller one, as only Funny Guy, Bankit, and Amundson come into this race off performances that would be good enough to win here. Many will gravitate toward those two classy runners exiting the Commentator. Funny Guy was the upset winner, benefitting from a perfect trip and ride by Joel Rosario. He got a strong pace to close into and saved ground all the way before the rail opened for him in upper stretch. That said, he still did well to come through and defeat a very good Mr. Buff, earning a career-best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s arguably the horse to beat off that effort, but now he has to cut back in distance to seven furlongs in a race that doesn’t feature nearly as much early speed. Bankit arguably ran just as well as Funny Guy last time, as he had to go wide on the far turn while launching his rally. However, Bankit often is content to settle for minor awards, and the lack of pace in here could be an even greater problem for a deep closer like him. All of that points to Amundson being the right horse to take. He may challenge the aforementioned pair of favoritism, but I think he should. Unsurprisingly, the TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts him on a clear early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. Furthermore, while this horse doesn’t have the classy company lines of some others, he’s coming off a series of strong sprinting performances. He ran an excellent race to win the Hollie Hughes over the winter and earned a career-best 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure over this distance last time, only losing to the promising Fortin Hill. Notably, the horse that he dueled with in that spot, Skyler’s Scramjet, returned to win here last Saturday, flattering Amundson’s effort. I think he’s going to lead them all the way.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,5,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 5,6 with 1,5,6,8