PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 9 - 4 - 1A
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 10:   6 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 11:   4 - 9 - 3 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: RUN FOR COVER (#7)

A few of the main players in this auction-restricted 2-year-old maiden are exiting a race at the same level from Aug. 5. Sirius Light (#4) achieved the best result that day, improving significantly with the switch to turf. She got steadied soon after the start and found herself last of 10 runners moving down the backstretch. However, she got a very good trip after that, saving ground behind a fast pace before rallying well through the lane to get up for second. She’s the one to beat, but she figures to be favored here whereas she was 19-1 last time. Influentialous (#6) was one of those contesting the pace, so she obviously has a right to run better. My top pick is Run for Cover (#7), who finished a little farther back in the pack. However, this filly had to be used hard early breaking the rail that day. She rushed up to chase Influentialous before having to alter course around that rival on the far turn. She moved up menacingly at the top of the stretch but seemed to take an awkward step coming off the turn after faded thereafter. She had worked well into her debut and I think she’s capable of better. Mark Casse is 13 for 52 (25%, $2.55 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years. There are also first time turfers that merit consideration. Numero Seis (#5) has damside pedigree, but I’m not a fan of Frosted as a sire. I could use him underneath.

WIN: #7 Run for Cover, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,5,6

RACE 4: GLYNN COUNTY (#3)

I’m not particularly fond of either Chad Brown runner in this field. I have no use for Flop Shot (#2), who didn’t run well at all last time and was never the most reliable win candidate even when he was in form. Value Engineering (#4) makes more sense and is arguably the one to beat. He ran a big race going this distance over Flop Shot last October, so I’m not that concerned about the slight cutback. He ran fine coming off the layoff last time, but I didn’t think he had a major excuse that day. He just could never get close to Street Ready (#6), who set the pace and almost wired the field before getting run down by Soldier Rising on the wire. This horse was 27-1 last time, but he had run well in multiple starts prior to that and was fairly underrated coming into that race. While he figures to be a much shorter price this time, I think he’s once again going to be dangerous from the front end. Bye Bye Melvin (#5) could apply some pressure, but I suspect his connections will be looking to get him off the pace this time with the blinkers coming off. He was a little headstrong off the layoff last time and just couldn’t quite hang on late when facing a good field. The stretch-out won’t be a problem and he’s a contender. I’m just going in a different direction with Glynn County (#3), who should be the best price of the contenders. He has to prove that he’s as effective going this distance as he has been over marathon trips. However, he’s simply been in over his head in some recent starts at the graded stakes level. He was running on well the last time that he tried allowance foes on the turf at Keeneland in April, but encountered traffic in the stretch. He was effective going this distance earlier in his career and he figures to get somewhat lost in the wagering even in this small field.

WIN: #3 Glynn County, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6: BALSA (#5)

Inflation Nation (#6) is obviously the one to beat off his encouraging debut performance in July. Reserved off a fast pace in the early going, he made what seemed like a winning move to range up alongside leader Appraise in midstretch before getting turned away by that rival. Despite hanging a bit, he still earned a strong 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance, and a repeat of that effort will make him awfully tough to beat. Though, it is worth noting that Appraise did return to disappoint slightly in his next start against stakes company. I prefer another runner with experience who is actually switching surfaces. Balsa (#5) sprinted on dirt in his debut and showed plenty of speed before backing up through the stretch. He was a little chilly on the tote board that day and probably needed that experience. He’s now switching over a surface that he’s bred to handle, as he’s by excellent turf sire Street Boss out of a dam who won sprinting on grass. He’s worked well since the debut, accomplishing a nice team drill in company with Sanford winner Mo Strike a couple of weeks ago. I expect a much better performance this time. There are also a couple of first time starters who interest me. Listentothemusic (#4) has some grass pedigree and has trained well into his debut. Mo Saturdays (#7) also seems quite dangerous for Al Stall, who is 5 for 20 (25%, $5.20 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. He has enough grass pedigree, and he’s trained very forwardly into this debut, going well in company with recent debut winner Gilcrease a few weeks ago.

WIN: #5 Balsa, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Mo Saturdays, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: OUR JESSICA (#7)

I suppose the public will default to Chad Brown and make Dream of Change (#9) the favorite in this conditioned claimer. She is dropping in for a tag for the first time, but I can’t say that I’m particularly encouraged by her form. She wasn’t facing the toughest allowance field at Monmouth last time and had her chance to win while just hanging between horses in the stretch. A repeat of that performance may put her in the winner’s circle here, but I didn’t want to pick her at a short price. Command Point (#4) may also attract some support as she makes her second start off the layoff for Rob Atras. She had earned superior speed figures when in George Weaver’s barn last year, but it’s unclear if she’s still capable of producing that form. She was against a slow pace in her return, but she saved all the ground and still didn’t have much of a response through the lane. I prefer Our Jessica (#7) from that Aug. 5 affair. She finished one spot behind Command Point, but undoubtedly had the tougher trip. For whatever reason, Jose Ortiz made no attempt to get her forward, grabbing her out of the gate and taking her immediately to last-place. She predictably got rank under that restraint as the pace slowed down into the clubhouse turn and fought her rider while going wide into the bend. She proceeded in the 2 to 3-path for the rest of her trip, never put in a position to be effective. I think she’s capable of better and she appeared to be improving when she broke her maiden against weaker two back. I like the rider switch to John Velazquez, who should have her more forward this time.

WIN: #7 Our Jessica, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9: UP AND DOWN (#7)

The horse to beat among those with experience might be Cowichan (#11), who is drawn on the also-eligible list. She closed decently for second last time, but was no match for winner Alluring Angel, who was moving even faster to her outside. She’s run well in all three starts, but Wesley Ward is supposed to win with these types before their fourth career starts. Ward’s other runner Stars On Fire (#3) is in the main body of the field and seems like she should be well suited to these conditions. She’s trained well on turf leading into this and is from a good turf sprinting family. It’s just a little odd that he’s named the apprentice Jose Gomez on the horse, though that may be partially due to the fact that some jockeys are currently on suspension. Illicit (#8) ran well in her debut, setting the pace in that same race Cowichan exits. She just got leg weary late after blazing some fast fractions on the front end. She could be fitter for her second start for a barn whose runners tend to do better with experience. Georgees Spirit (#5) is another who could improve upon her debut. She didn’t run that badly on the dirt, but was entered for turf that day and seems like one that is better suited to this surface. The aforementioned runners all make sense, but I wanted to go in a different direction with a first time starter. Up and Down (#7) is one of two Chad Brown runners in this field. She’s got plenty of turf pedigree, being a half-sister to stakes winner Fluffy Socks. Brown is 5 for 17 (29%, $3.72 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf sprints at Saratoga over the past 5 years, with 10 hitting the board in that sample. I like the way this filly has trained for her debut and she figures to fly under the radar with Manny Franco named to ride.

WIN: #7 Up and Down, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,5,8