PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 6 - 11 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 1A - 3
Race 6:   1 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   4 - 10 - 1 - 6
Race 9:   2 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 15 - 8 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 4: OUR LAST BUCK (#1)
Aloha West figures to vie for favoritism off his gutsy allowance win earlier in the meet. A repeat of that 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him tough, and he was flattered when the second and third-place finishers Night Time and Cost Basis returned to finish in those same positions behind the talented 3-year-old Beau Liam last week. This colt has trained forwardly in Saratoga since then, and doesn’t figure to be bothered by the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs. Though he is a closer in a paceless race, he overcame soft fractions to win last time. He’s the one to beat, but there are others to consider. I’m somewhat against the lone speed American Power. He figures to have a pace advantage, but I really didn’t like his effort in the Nerud last time and wonder if he’s heading the wrong way. Three Technique put in a fine effort in that same Grade 2 event, finishing a solid third behind the classy pair of Mind Control and Firenze Fire. I won’t hold his Vanderbilt against him, since he was just a little overmatched against that Grade 1 field. Seven furlongs is perfect and he’s drawn well outside. That said, I want to go in a different direction with Our Last Buck. This gelding really came to hand last winter, earning a stakes win at this distance over the talented Funny Guy. He was put on the shelf after that and didn’t resurface until earlier in this Spa meet. He caught a sloppy track in the Morrissey off the long layoff but ran an admirable race to stay on for third. He should benefit from that experience. While he’s stepping up into a tough spot here, he does have the tactical speed to sit close to likely leader American Power, and I believe he can cause an upset with his top effort.

Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with 2,3,4,5

RACE 5: MY BOY COLTON (#7)
There are only 5 runners left in this off-the-turf event, but two of them are going to get bet off turf form. Mubtadaa and Defferred Taxes have both never tried dirt in the afternoons, and they have dubious credentials to handle this surface. Both have trained decently over it in the mornings, but that isn’t the strongest evidence to suggest they’ll handle it come race time. In my opinion, the clear horse to beat is Boldish, who was entered as an MTO and is obviously a contender on the main track. I didn’t think he was meeting a particularly strong field last time but he ran well within the context of that race. He launched a strong far turn move and got there in mid-stretch before hanging. He’s one to consider but I have another idea at a better price. My Boy Colton is now switching surfaces for his second start. While he was entered for turf, I can’t imagine his connections are too upset that this race was rained off. He was a dirt pedigree, being by versatile sire Pioneerof the Nile out of a dam who was a Grade 1 winner on dirt. He looked very green in his debut, but he showed some speed before getting shuffled out of the race on the turn. I like that he’s drawn the outside post position here and I think he can improve on his initial effort.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,3,5