PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 9 - 1A - 6
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 9 - 12 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   1A - 6 - 12 - 9
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 8 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 4: FAIR LASSIE (#6)
The favorites in this race don’t really excite me. I suppose Cover Photo is the most reliable option as she races second off the layoff and second off the claim for Linda Rice. I never view it as a great sign when Linda Rice sends horses out of town, as she did with this filly going to Finger Lakes for her last start. She ran a decent race that day and obviously was flattered when third-place finisher Tied Up went on to win two consecutive races at Saratoga after that. However, she lacks tactical speed and could be somewhat compromised in a race doesn’t project to feature much pace. Blunt Force had little excuse to lose last time when run down by Stay Fond, who was an early scratch from this spot. She slipped through a gaping opening on the rail when a rival went wide on the turn, inheriting a clear lead before fading late. She may have to run better to beat this field and I’m a little skeptical that she can get back to her speed figure from Churchill Downs two back. And I prefer both of these horses to dropdown I’ll Take the Cake, who just appears to have lost her form since returning from a layoff. I want to take a shot against these horses with Fair Lassie. Given the lack of speed in this race, I think she could get the kind of trip that she needs. She always runs best when she can get clear in the early going and she might be able to shake loose from this field early, depending on the tactics used by Cotton Candy Cutie. Fair Lassie hasn’t been that competitive in her recent starts, but she comes out of a strong race for the level and has back speed figures that put her in the mix.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5

RACE 6: OFFICER HUTCHY (#7)
This New York Stallion Series race features an intriguing cast of characters, topped by undefeated Finger Lakes shipper Spin a Yarn. She returns on just 8 days’ rest after easily winning her fourth race in as many starts. While it’s usually wise to be skeptical of horses shipping in from Finger Lakes, this is not the strongest New York-bred stakes you’ll see on the NYRA circuit. That last run was obviously a prep, and she could win this race if able to repeat the 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned two back. Yet I’m a little skeptical of the form of that race, as a number of horses who finished behind her returned to regress in their subsequent starts. She could get some early pace pressure of Big Q, and I’m hoping that sets things up for her main rival Officer Hutchy. It might seem like that 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned last time came out of nowhere, especially considering that it was a $25,000 claiming race. However, this filly showed real potential at the start of her career, actually finishing second in a $500,000 stakes event in this series in just her second start. It took her a while to get back in the groove off a layoff this summer, but she had legitimate excuses in her two starts prior to that last victory. While the final time for that event was very fast, Officer Hutchy’s performance seems legitimate, and the 14-length gap back to the third-place finisher would appear to corroborate it.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 7 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4,6

RACE 8: PALACE AVENGER (#3)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Palace Avenger. This filly was something of a disappointment as a 2-year-old, but it’s been a different story this year. She made quite a splash in her 2020 debut, hanging on for second at 29-1 against a strong allowance field at Churchill. And then last time she actually improved on that return to gamely win her N1X condition. Even more impressive is that she won despite having to awkwardly alter course around the half-mile pole. She could play out as the primary speed this time and looms a deserving favorite for a barn that has been enjoying a strong Spa meet. One of her main rivals is Fair Regis, who is one of the most consistent runners in this field. However, she’s struggled to get to the winner’s circle lately and now finds herself in a spot where some younger rivals appears to have more upside. Kept True vied for the early lead last time in a race where the pace fell apart, so she has a minor excuse for fading in the late stages. She should be fitter with that run under her belt, and she has prior form that makes her a player in this race. I’m using her, but perhaps the mare that scares me most is Bertranda. She was experiencing a renaissance in 2020 up until that disappointing effort last time. Yet, with the exception of a blowout win in February at Aqueduct, her recent form just isn’t good enough to compete at this level. That said, she has now been claimed by Orlando Noda, so it;s necessary to assess her based on the upper reaches of her past ability. Through Wednesday, was Noda is 9 for 23 (39%, $4.09 ROI) at the current meet and had won with 6 of his last 10 starters through Wednesday. She’s likely to improve, but how much? I still prefer Palace Avenger and believe she deserves to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,6