by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 9 - 7 - 12
Race 4: 12 - 11 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 10 - 9 - 1A
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 8 - 9
Race 7: 7 - 12 - 6 - 8
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 9 - 4 - 11 - 6
Race 10: 3 - 11 - 7 - 13
RACE 4: WINGMAN (#12)
I think I spent more time deliberating over this race than any other on the card. There is a lot going on with many horses to consider, none of which come without flaws. The horse to beat is probably Your Only Man, who returns at the same level after losing at 9-5 last time. This runner looked like he might be capable of better over the winter at Gulfstream, but things didn’t pan out and now he’s racing in claiming company. He didn’t run terribly last time, as the pace was actually legitimate for that distance, but I wasn’t thrilled with his effort. He probably ran a better race than Acoustic, who was just picking up pieces at the end, but that one now makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis, so he must be considered. Glennrichment’s last race would make him awfully tough in here, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him as he makes his first start in over 3 months. He was actually a vet scratch out of that July 5 race that a few others contested, and now it’s taken him another 4 weeks to return. I think this is a race where we can get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Wingman. I know that the post position is not ideal, but there’s a long run-up to the turn going this distance on the inner and Luis Saez figures to be aggressive in a race that does not feature much early speed. In fact, the Pace Projector has him sitting second early in a situation favoring runners up front. This gelding’s turf races last year were actually pretty good, as he kept decent company despite facing maidens through the summer and fall. In his only turf start against winners at Aqueduct, he actually ran much better than it appears, as he got shuffled totally out of position in the first furlong, and actually made up good ground in the lane. I think that Dec. 16 win on the dirt tricked his connections into thinking he could be a main track horse over the winter. The reality is that he took advantage of a rail bias that day and he’s actually much better on turf. Now he gets back to the right surface, and the DRF Clocker Reports indicate that he’s coming into this race in good condition.
RACE 5: SHE IS BEDAZZLING (#7)
Our Circle of Love is clearly the horse to beat as she makes her third career start for Michelle Nevin. The reality of today’s situation is that she has already run fast enough to win most maiden races at this level, so anyone who beats her will likely have to come up with an above-par performance. While I respect Our Circle of Love’s talent, I did think that she should have won her last race. Perhaps Wisconsin Night, the winner, is just a talented filly, but today’s favorite had every chance to go by her in the lane and just could not quite get up. We also saw third-place finisher Big Birthday return with a disappointing performance in her subsequent start. There are typically some live runners in these Saratoga maiden races, so if a horse like this is going to get beat, it’s at this meet. There are a few intriguing first-time starters in this spot, and I’m actually interested in one that may go off at the highest price. She Is Bedazzling is sent out by Ron Moquett, who does not have a great record with horses making their debuts. However, a close inspection of this filly’s morning drills reveals that she was actually working in California earlier this year, apparently stabled with Richard Mandella. This filly logged some very fast drills at Santa Anita, and then again logged another quick time on June 9 at Churchill Downs before shipping to New York. Some may be deterred by the fact that she sold for only $140,000 as a daughter of top sire Medaglia d’Oro, especially considering that she is a half-sister to Grade 2 Indiana Oaks winner High Dollar Woman. Watching her local breeze on July 22, you can sort of see why she may not have brought a huge price tag. She doesn’t have the prettiest stride as her front legs extend out in opposite directions. However, despite that funny action, she nonetheless appears to float over the ground effortlessly and I get the sense that this one may have some ability.
RACE 8: CAIRENN (#5)
I suppose Your Love is the horse to beat as she steps back up into stakes company for her second start off the layoff. She was clearly unlucky last time when eventual winner Nisha kept her pinned in for the majority of the stretch drive. She probably was going to win that day had she found a clear path. I expect her to move forward off that performance, but I’m still not in love with her overall. She never was that fast as a 3-year-old and she generally did well when she was facing weaker company. I’m using him, but I don’t think she’s terribly formidable. Heavenly Score scares me, since she’s apparently coming into this race in top form. This filly handles both surfaces, so I’m not concerned about the switch back to dirt. Her most recent effort in the Intercontinental was one of her best, and she’s reportedly working just as well coming into this race. I’m definitely using her, but the horse that I want to bet in this spot is Cairenn. This filly improved by leaps and bounds over the winter for trainer Mark Reid, and it seems that she may have taken yet another step forward for Graham Motion this summer. She was obviously overmatched against Lewis Bay in the Bed O Roses two back, but she did not disgrace herself in defeat, rallying for third despite the pace never developing. Then last time she actually ran much better than the final finish suggests in the Dashing Beauty. The rail was completely dead that day at Delaware Park, as many riders made obvious efforts to avoid it throughout the day. Cairenn was one of the only horses on the card that stayed near the rail for her entire trip and still ran well, as the other horses that finished in the photo with her rallied outside. She appears to be well-spotted to get a stakes win here.
RACE 9: DOWSE’S BEACH (#9)
There’s quite a bit going on in this tricky optional-claiming event for New York-breds. The obvious horse to beat is Frisky Magician, who takes a gigantic drop in class after trying his hand against graded stakes foes in his last two starts. He actually didn’t run that badly in either of those races, and now he gets to run against the softest group he has faced since being claimed by Michael Dubb and Jorge Abreu. While he is likely to win this race if he runs to his potential, taking deep closers at very short prices is never a wise move, especially in turf sprints. I’m using him, but others may offer better value. Uncle Youdge comes into this race in top form off a couple of fast wins at Laurel. He struggled at Saratoga last season, but he may just be a better horse as a 5-year-old. I’m using him, but the horse that interests me most in this spot is fellow speed Dowse’s Beach. This runner got very good off the claim by Brad Cox through the middle of last season before his form deteriorated this spring. Surprisingly, horses claimed away from Brad Cox actually do quite well in their subsequent starts, and he’s been claimed by Joe Sharp, who is one of the best turf sprint trainers in the country. Over the past five years, Sharp is 8 for 29 (28 percent, $2.47 ROI) first off the claim at distances from 5 to 6 furlongs on turf. I think it’s interesting that he adds blinkers right off the bat, and I loved the way this horse effortlessly moved through his July 21 drill with that new equipment. There’s plenty of speed in this race, but Dowse’s Beach is certainly capable of stalking outside.
RACE 10: ZENATO (#3)
I think there are a few false favorites in this finale. I don’t really care for Smash Williams, who may go off as the public’s choice. He went the wrong way after his initial start at Belmont, and has not looked like the same horse at Gulfstream. I think this is a race in which we can get a bit more creative. Discreet Mission is one that should be included. He’s not going to be a huge price, but he has run against much tougher fields since returning from the layoff and is finally getting the class relief that he needs. I’m using him, but the horse that I want to bet at an attractive price is Zenato. This horse ran deceptively well in his second start over the winter at Aqueduct, and then he put it all together two back in March, breaking his maiden over a relatively strong maiden claiming field. A number out of that 14-horse affair returned to improve in subsequent starts, whereas Zenato went to the sidelines. His recent start at Finger Lakes feels like merely a prep, as he was in a tougher allowance spot. Now he’s at the right class level, and this barn knows how to get a runner ready for the Saratoga meet.