by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 11 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 10: 10 - 4 - 12 - 7
RACE 1: RED DANGER (#3)
Welsey Ward holds a strong hand here with two of the likely favorites. Castle Leoch ran reasonably well in his debut despite losing as the 3-5 choice. He got a strong 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort, and a repeat of that performance puts him in the mix. Wesley Ward is 17 for 58 (29%, $1.84 ROI) with 2YO maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years, so he has a right to step forward. However, Admiral Halsey may be more dangerous. This $230k yearling purchase is by War Front out of a dam who was a G3 winner on turf in Ireland. She’s produced 2 turf winners from 2 foals to race in the US, topped by this one’s full sibling Balon Rose. Plus, the second dam Airwave was a G1 winner as a 2-year-old in England before turning into a top turf sprinter in Europe. I’m using both of these but there are certainly others to consider. Steve Asmussen and Linda Rice both send out firsters off impressive sales workouts. However, my top pick is one with experience. Red Danger finished off the board in his debut, but the effort wasn’t bad at all. He broke with the leaders before getting slightly outrun on the backstretch. He then chased determinedly on the far turn while put under a drive, but encountered some traffic when guided down to the rail in the stretch. Now he moves to turf. There isn’t a ton of obvious turf pedigree here, as Orb wins with just 6% of his turf sprint starters and there isn’t much production on the dam’s side. However, he sports a nice drill over the Oklahoma course since his debut, and I get the sense he has more ability than we saw that day.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6,7
RACE 2: ADDILYN (#2)
Extra Effort is clearly the horse to beat as she makes her first start off the claim for Rob Atras. This barn is a solid 20 for 71 (28%, $1.91 ROI) off claims in dirt sprints over the past 5 years, and Atras has already won 6 races at this meet. He’s also getting this filly from a few barns who don’t win at the rate of the new connections. Furthermore, this horse has plenty of early speed and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she’ll be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. Perhaps it’s as simple as that, but she does have to get 7 furlongs here and she may face some pressure from rivals like Left Leaning Lucy or Effiemeister. I want to go in a different direction with Florida shipper Addilyn. This filly finished far back last time at Gulfstream, but she was facing a much tougher field that day. Prior to that she had earned a competitive speed figure when winning first off the claim for Peter Walder on May 31. Her career record suggests she’s a horse who settles for minor awards, but she was spotted over her head in many starts for her previous connections. I like her turning back in distance to 7 furlongs and she has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip. Peter Walder is a noteworthy 31 for 112 (28%, $3.04 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints on dirt over the past 5 years. The barn hasn’t had any recent wins at Saratoga, but Walder has sent out a couple of second-place finishers already at this meet, and both of those were ridden by Luis Saez.
Win: 2
Exacta Box: 1,2
RACE 7: MISS DELICIOUS (#1)
Town Avenger is the filly to beat in this highly competitive N1X allowance optional claimer. She ran very well to win her debut going 5 1/2 furlongs, overcoming a wide trip to get up at the wire. She was ambitiously stretched out to a mile against stakes foes in her next start and was hardly disgraced. That Tepin was dominated on the front end by Navratilova, and Town Avenger was trying to make up ground into that slow pace. She made some headway late to be fourth, and has been flattered since by those who crossed the wire ahead of her. Runner-up Tobys Heart returned to finish a good second in the Lake George. She’s a deserving favorite, but she is now stretching out again to 1 1/8 miles, so her stamina will be tested. The others look very evenly matched, so I’m expecting trips to separate the contenders. Miss Delicious figures to work out the right setup as long as John Velazquez gives her a better ride than last time. She had done her best work setting the pace at Belmont in June, yet Velazquez made no attempt to get her into a forward position when he took over the reins last time. Breaking from the outside post position, Miss Delicious was hung wide around both turns without cover, which is rarely the right trip on the turf. This time, she figures to be used more aggressively breaking from the rail, and I like her stretching out in distance to 9 furlongs. I would also use Earth Strike, who closed well behind Miss Delicious on June 25, as well as recent maiden winner Elle Est Forte, who closed into a slow pace last time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,11
Trifecta: 1,11 with 1,11 with 2,3,4,9
RACE 8: TRINNI LUCK (#4)
Betsy Blue figures to go favored again after losing as the 7-5 choice at this level last time. She really hasn’t put in a poor effort yet in her 6 career starts, even though her 4-race winning streak was broken last time. She might have gotten closer to the winner in that most recent outing had she been able to work her way into the clear a bit earlier, but ultimately 6 furlongs may have been a little short for her. Stretching back out to 7 furlongs figures to suit her, as she was impressive winning the Bouwerie over this trip two back. That said, she still is somewhat dependent on pace and she doesn’t have any discernable speed figure advantage over this field. Diva Banker moves up to this level as she seeks her third victory in a row for Ray Handal. She was a vet scratch from the July 18 race that Betsy Blue exits, but she’s worked consistently through that time so it probably isn’t a major concern. She’s clearly in career form right now, but I actually prefer the runner who finished just behind her last time. Trinni Luck took a couple of starts to get back on track coming off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez this year. She was dull on May 22 and fared better on June 18 behind Diva Banker. Yet she took a significant step forward last time, showing improved early speed to run a field off its feet. She laid down some fast fractions while sustaining early pressure before kicking away from the field through the stretch. That 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the best numbers in this field, and I think she’s going to work out a similar trip here. Horses exiting that July 10 race have done well, as the second through fourth-place finishers all earned higher speed figures in subsequent starts. For what it’s worth, Rudy Rodriguez is 7 for 34 (21%, $2.22 ROI) with last-out winners in Saratoga dirt sprints over the past 5 years.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 9: MOMOS (#7)
This race becomes a little less interesting after the scratch of Jaxon Traveler, who I was against. Wesley Ward has a pair of contenders who could vie for favoritism now. Into the Sunrise could attract more support after winning two in a row, including a stakes at Ellis Park. Yet I’m more interested in Arrest Me Red off the layoff. This colt makes his first start off the trainer switch to Welsey Ward, and ran some nice races for his former conditioner as a 2-year-old. He got a great trip to win the Atlantic Beach last year, but he had shown real talent in both starts prior to that. He’s training very well for this 3-year-old debut and should not be dismissed. My top pick is Momos. This colt hasn’t yet won on the turf, but he’s run some of his best races on this surface. He proved he could run at this level on grass in the Futurity last year before getting run off his feet by Golden Pal in the Breeders’ Cup. Following a gutsy return win at Monmouth two back, he put in a strong effort back on turf in the My Frenchman last time. That was arguably a stronger field than this, as Chasing Artie is a good sprinter for Ward, and multiple runners who finished behind Momos have returned to run well.
Win: 7
Trifecta: 7 with 3,8 with 1,3,8