by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   5 - 1A - 7 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 1A - 2 - 4
Race 6:   1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   10 - 11 - 12 - 6
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 9:   2 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 10:   4 - 6 - 1 - 7

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: STRIKE THAT (#5)
Tiz He the One is obviously the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He was in excellent form for Linda Rice and is arguably getting class relief after facing the likes of Firenze Fire and Fortin Hill in his last couple of starts. Seven furlongs is an appropriate distance for him and the Maker barn has been firing on all cylinders at this meet. I’m hardly against him, but I am wary of accepting a short price on a horse who has never won outside of Laurel, especially when there are other viable contenders. Some may give a look to Gun It given his back class. While I do generally like turnbacks, Gun It has never struck me as a sprinter and I’m concerned about his recent form. He appears to have lost much of the early speed that he once possessed and that doesn’t bode well for his chances on the turnback. My top pick is Strike That. The big negative with this horse is the Robertino Diodoro barn, which has been alarmingly cold so far at this meet. However, this horse is arguably one of the few exceptions, as he already ran well here. I thought David Cohen was a little too passive in that July 24 race, as he reserved this horse off a slow pace and gave him a bit too much to do in the stretch, especially considering that the pace held together. He nevertheless finished up strongly, hardly regressing at all off his excellent Oaklawn form. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and such a scenario should help him get the 7-furlong distance.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with ALL
 

RACE 3: INSPECTOR HENNING (#1)
The favorites in this race seem particularly vulnerable, as most have had their chances at this level and failed. I suppose Fluent in Sarcasm may be the public choice as he retains Irad Ortiz while going out for the hot Mike Maker barn. While he lost at this level last time while putting on his usual act – showing early speed and fading – at least he had the excuse of getting involved in a fast pace that fell apart. It does seem like’s subtly improved since we first saw him in New York earlier this year, but he’s still not the kind of horse that I’d want to take at a short price. Daring Disguise is even less appealing at similar odds, as he’s had more chances than most and may find this 5 ½-furlong distance to be too short for him. If he couldn’t win as the odds-on choice against a hungry field last time, he may have trouble ever breaking out of the maiden ranks. Despite his low-profile connections, Money in the Bank seems far more trustworthy among those with turf experience. He defeated Fluent in Sarcasm when last seen and has earned multiple speed figures that put him in the mix. Yet I want to get a bit more creative with a first-time turfer. Inspector Henning has done little running in his prior dirt efforts, but he strikes me as a horse who may really benefit from this surface switch. He just seems to be flailing about over the dirt in his races, and he’s bred to be far more successful on grass. He’s by 14% turf sprint sire Shackleford, his dam was a 4-time turf winner, and he’s a half-brother to 3-time turf winner Free N Clear.

Win/Place: 1
 

RACE 7: VOLIERO (#10)
Sandro the Great figures to go favored in this spot after finishing second in an off-the-turf race at this level. Yet I think he still has distance questions to answer, as 1 1/16 miles may be too short for him. Christophe Clement tried this New York-bred against open company twice – once at Gulfstream and then at Belmont – in an effort to make use of his stamina in longer races. He ran pretty well when he finally got on the turf last time, but he was no match for his stablemate Shamrocket. This is a softer spot, but this horse is somewhat one-paced and may not have the turn of foot to pass them all. Main rival Scuttlebuzz had only sprinted thus far in his career before finishing behind Sandro the Great in that dirt race last time. Scuttlebuzz arguably ran the best race in that June 14 loss, overcoming a tardy start by making a wide move on the far turn before just falling short in the closing strides. However, he has displayed gate issues in all of his starts, and he tends to get rank after breaking slowly. Those are traits that just aren’t compatible with route success. I prefer Voliero. This gelding showed some promise in his debut as a 2-year-old, and I don’t care too much about his dirt race last time. His outside post position draw proved to be especially detrimental on June 4 over the inner turf course at Belmont. And then on June 26 he just ran into vastly improved winner Barleewon, but finished well for second. His turf TimeformUS Speed Figures are superior to this field and I just think he’s the most reliable option in a race where the other short prices still have things to prove. At bigger prices, I'd also throw in Microsecond, who has some turf pedigree for a hot barn, and Neuro, who ran deceptively well sprinting last time and could improve second off the layoff.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 6,9,11,12
 

RACE 8: CANDY TYCOON (#7)
This is a fascinating N1X allowance event, as you have horses coming in from a multitude of directions. The potential favorite is Lil Commissioner, who steps up for trainer Rob Atras after easily defeating a $20,000 claiming field at Belmont. He was scratched out of a claiming race last weekend (notably won with ease by his stablemate Musical Heart) to instead target this more ambitious spot. I take that as a sign of confidence for a barn that seems to finally be hitting its stride at this meet. I am a little concerned about the 9-furlong distance for him, but I would be hesitant to leave him out. Many of the other major players are 3-year-olds. A horse like Forza di Oro could attract support, but his races last year were very slow and that form has not been flattered by runbacks. Liveyourbeastlife put in a breakout performance when last seen at Belmont behind the promising Creed. While he did run well to be third after setting a fast pace, the horse who he was dueling with, Mister Winston, returned to do poorly, casting some doubt on the overall quality of that field. I prefer Candy Tycoon. This horse gets needed class relief after facing tougher rivals in the Peter Pan last time. He lost all chance at the start that day, stumbling and getting squeezed back to last. I’m willing to draw a line through that effort, and I think he has an excellent chance to rebound here. A repeat of his runner-up finish behind Rushie at Oaklawn would probably be good enough to handle this field. Plus the Todd Pletcher barn has been sending out nothing but live runners at this meet. I would also throw in Hunt the Front into my exotics. This colt was overmatched in the Blue Grass, but had shown some promise prior to that and should want every bit of the 9-furlong distance.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 4,6 with 3,4,5,6,8