by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   11 - 7 - 12 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 6 - 9
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 7 - 10
Race 10:   12 - 11 - 2 - 1

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: MORE THUNDER (#2)
Beyond Gone figures to go off as a heavy favorite in this race after running well in a similar spot in his debut. He was a little green in the early stages of that race, rushing up down the backstretch while racing keenly behind a moderate pace. He eventually found room in the lane and briefly looked like a winner before he was overhauled by his stablemate. He figures to improve off that effort and his trainer Ken McPeek is 10 for 43 (23%, $2.90 ROI) with 2-year-old second time starting maidens in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. While I’m hardly against him, he wasn’t facing the strongest field last time and I think there’s at least one new rival in this race who might have more ability than the horses he met in his debut. More Thunder makes his first start for Steve Klesaris, who can win with a firster from time to time. This colt knows his way around a 2-year-old in training sale, having been entered in 3 of them. He was an RNA twice earlier in the year for larger sums – one time failing to sell for $120,000. Yet he finally changed hands for just $40,000 in his most recent sale in June, making him eligible for this race. All of his drills at those sales looked solid, including his 10 1/5 clocking at OBS in June. More recently, I liked the way he was striding through the stretch working a half-mile in 48 2/5 last week. It seems like this son of Goldencents has some speed to him and I don’t think he has to be the most talented firster to overhaul a favorite that might be overrated.
 

RACE 4: BAD GUY (#11)
This New York-bred N1X allowance drew a much weaker field than the division of this race that was run on Sunday, won by Cross Border. Gosilently was a longshot in that field, but he inherits the favorite’s role against this far less daunting group. His best efforts make him fast enough to win races at this level. He displayed good form upon initially coming to New York last summer, ultimately getting a victory over a chewed-up Belmont course in October. However, his only start in 2019 was fairly disappointing, as he backed up in the lane after setting a moderate early pace. He’s likely to step forward out of that effort, but he’s not the most reliable win candidate, as his career record stands at just 2 for 20 lifetime. Yet, if we’re going to hold that against him, then my top pick is in even worse shape. Bad Guy is 1 for 27 lifetime with 15 second- and third place finishes. However, it is worth noting that just 10 of those 27 starts came on turf, which is clearly his preferred surface. Furthermore, he broke his maiden just three starts ago, and his two subsequent efforts against winners have been two of the best performances of his career. He closed well to be third behind superior rivals Mr. Massena and Stock Trade two back. Then last time, he actually did very well to rally up into fourth at 26-1 against a far tougher starter allowance field. His closing style may be a liability in a race where Gosilently is predicted to control the pace up front, yet Bad Guy is capable of sitting a bit closer to slow fractions. I like that Irad Ortiz is taking the mount, and his overall record figures to ward off many potential backers, ensuring that he’s a playable price.
 

RACE 5: KATAMA MOONLIGHT (#2)
Potential favorite My Bronx Tail seemed cut out to be a decent turf sprinter last year before things went awry during the summer. She is reportedly difficult to handle, and she sometimes loses her cool pre-race. Yet that was not the case last time when she fired a top effort off the layoff. Her speed figures to make her very dangerous once again, though the stretch-out to seven furlongs may suit others better. My Happy Place was well supported last time when finishing far behind My Bronx Tail. She had previously shown a ton of promise when closing to be second in her debut after steadying at a couple of points on the turn. She’s clearly bred to be a racehorse, being out of the Grade 1-placed My Happy Face. Shug tends to get these to keep improving over time, and the trajectory isn’t always linear, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the regression last time. She’s worth including, yet my top pick is one of the fillies returning from a layoff. Katama Moonlight made one start late in her 2-year-old season and her greenness got the best of her. She was off about a length slowly and was sluggish thereafter before making a sustained rally to be third. It wasn’t a fast race, but it was nevertheless a solid starting point for a filly who is bred to go two turns. After all, she is a full sister to Noble Moon, a Grade 2- winning dirt router. Katama Moonlight has recently been working in company with talented unraced filly Indian Pride, and she holds her own against that one. She appears ready to return with an improved effort and the distance suits her.
 

RACE 6: MAZAL EIGHTEEN (#10)
There’s a lot going on in this fascinating New York-bred maiden turf route. The likely favorite will probably be first time starter Astoria Kitten. This filly is obviously bred for turf, being by Kitten’s Joy out of a productive female family. Her dam has produced a number of talented runners, including the stakes-placed mare Satisfy and the turf winner Sanctify. Danny Gargan can obviously get a firster ready and he’s been sending out nothing but live runners at this meet. Furthermore, reports are that she’s been working well for this unveiling. I’m definitely afraid of her, but I’m not one to take short prices on first time starters in races with other appealing options. Among the firsters, I’d be just as interested in Kiss and Run, who is bred to be a good turf horse as a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed grass runner Mo Maverick. She cost a sizable sum as a yearling and has been training like one who will appreciate two turns. I’m definitely using her, but experience is often valuable in these races and there are some second time starters worth considering. Devils Rendezvous has plenty of turf pedigree. Daredevil is probably going to turn out to be a decent turf influence and her dam earned both of her victories on turf. My top pick is Mazal Eighteen, who figures to be a square price in this spot. She was reportedly training very well on turf for Danny Gargan prior to her debut, but she didn’t handle the dirt at all when that race was rained off. I’m not going to hold that performance against her, and she’d normally be one that you want to afford another chance on the proper surface. I’m not sure what happened since that race to necessitate the trainer change to Pat Reynolds, but I have a feeling she may get somewhat ignored due to that switch. It’s a good sign that Irad Ortiz takes the mount, and this filly obviously has the look of a horse with some ability to have sold for $220,000 with very little pedigree. Will Take Charge is a 15% turf sire and there are plenty of grass influences going back to the second generation on the dam’s side.
 

RACE 9: YES I SEE (#9)
This is one of the most intriguing races on the card, since you can make a valid case for most of the horses entered for turf. Given the wide open nature of this race, I don’t want to accept a short price on Harv Won’t Tap. This horse comes into this race with superior speed figures, many of which were earned at higher class levels. However, he’s now dropping significantly in his second start off the claim while exiting some strong barns. Bruce Brown is just 3 for 32 (9%, $0.39 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more, so it’s possible that this one may regress. Furthermore, he’s a dead closer in a race that does not feature a ton of speed. The likely leader is Coltrane, who was somewhat interesting as the pacesetter in a race at this level on July 13. While he could only manage to finish 6th that day, he actually did reasonably well while setting a pace that fell apart in the late stages. Since then, he threw down a bullet 4 furlongs in 46 3/5 seconds last week, a work that was over a second faster than the next-fastest drill at that distance. This horse has plenty of prior speed figures that make him competitive, and he may just be rounding back into form in his third start off the layoff. I’m using him, but my top pick is Yes I See as he returns to the grass. While his last 9 starts have come on the dirt, this horse was once clearly best on the turf. Seven of his 13 lifetime wins have come on that surface and he finished in the exacta in 13 of his 27 turf starts. This 8-year-old has experienced some peaks and valleys in his form over the past few seasons, but it appears that Robertino Diodoro has him heading in the right direction again. I loved the way he skipped over a sealed surface at Oaklawn two back – albeit against cheaper – and he did very well to beat a better field at Churchill last time after getting badly impeded at the start. This old-timer has been working very steadily – every 7 or 8 days like clockwork – for the past 5 weeks, which would appear to indicate that he’s sound and ready to put forth a top effort in this return to grass.
 

RACE 10: SUBSIDIARY (#12)
A Dixie Twister is 2 for 2 since returning to Mike Miceli’s barn earlier this spring. She won twice at the same $32,000 claiming level at Belmont and was particularly dominant when winning by 2 1/2 lengths last time. Yet, she worked out absolutely perfect trips in both of those starts and may find herself having to rally from farther back in the pack here with so much speed signed on. Morissette should be more forwardly placed after she displayed improved early speed in her most recent start at Monmouth. She was put on a hard chase in the early going, reeling in and overhauling an odds-on favorite on her way to victory. This is a step up in class, but she clearly handles these abbreviated sprint distances and her last speed figure puts her in the mix. I’m using both of these, but I think there are some other options to consider at better prices. A filly who scares me is Ardara Belle. She’s never run fast enough to win at this level, but she notably improved on dirt last time and that’s probably not her preferred surface. She had been a bit of a nutcase for her prior connections, but Rob Atras seems to have figured out that she needs to be sent to the front. She’s part of my play, but my top pick is Subsidiary. This filly figures to appreciate the turnback to a turf sprint. She lost all chance at the start of that stakes last time when she broke slowly and was squeezed back. A mile is probably too far for her anyway, as she displayed in her initial turf start back in June. She’s been most proficient over shorter sprint distances on dirt, and her pedigree indicates that 5 1/2 furlongs is about as far as she wants to go. I like the outside post for her and Joel Rosario should be a good fit.