by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 9 - 7 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 10 - 7
Race 8: 8 - 2 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 6 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 8 - 2 - 3 - 10
RACE 2: TOSSUP (#3)
The two horses with experience are likely to take the bulk of the play here. Elegant Zip is the one who figures to attract the most attention off her strong runner-up finish in a fast maiden heat July 25. She ran a very professional race for a barn that is not known for firing first time out. This filly broke alertly, chased the pace 3- to 4-wide on the turn and stayed on well in the lane while only briefly threatening the winner. She certainly has a right to take a step forward in her second start, but it’s not as if she needs to improve at all to win this. I’m certainly using her, but I actually prefer the other second-time starter, Tossup. This filly comes out of a stakes race that was actually more akin to the maiden field Elegant Zip exits in terms of overall quality. Even though the final speed figure came up very slow, Tossup ran extremely well within the context of that race. She did not break that alertly and found herself shuffled to the back of a well-bunched field in the early going. Joe Bravo clearly had plenty of horse underneath him, so he made a premature, wide move around the far turn, rocketing past the entire field to challenge for the lead at the quarter pole. It briefly looked as if she was going to go on and win, but she ended up lugging in while tiring in the final eighth of a mile. All things considered, she did well to hang on for second, and seems like a perfect candidate to take a step forward in her second start. I know Rick Violette doesn’t have the strongest statistics with this move, but Tossup has apparently worked well since her debut and I think she’s the type that can buck that trend.
RACE 3: GREATREVIEWS (#4)
I’m not enamored with many of the fillies that are likely to take money in this spot. I suppose No Need to Appeal will attract support again merely because she’s trained by Chad Brown, who is having a fantastic meet. She gets a pass for her loss in the slop last time, but I still am not convinced that she’s talented enough to win a race at this level. Posse Needed won a hungry off the turf race last time out, and is another one that has never fully delivered on her early potential. Furthermore, neither of these runners possesses much early speed, which could be detrimental in this small field. The Pace Projector is predicting that Greatreviews will be able to control this race on the front end, and that’s good enough for me. I think the TimeformUS Speed Figures give an accurate portrayal of how well this filly has run over her past 3 starts, as she took advantage of a weak field at Gulfstream three back and actually ran much better in her return to New York at the end of may, fending off impressive next-out winner Alberobello. I won’t hold her muddy track loss on Jun. 28 against her, as there were about four speed horses in that race and she just could never quite keep up. She has reportedly worked well since then, and I think her best effort will beat this field.
RACE 4: TEXAS MUSIC (#1)
Avery Maeve may win this race at a short price, but I’m starting to wonder if she’s lost a step as a 4-year-old. She’s been among the top choices in the wagering in each of her last two starts, and she just continues to fail to get the job done. She now hasn’t won a race since October 2016, so her connections are probably doing the right thing to give her some class relief. She’s run well over this turf course in the past, and she clearly brings the strongest form into this race. However, the Dave Cannizzo barn has been struggling at this meet. Bowl of Kisses also figures to attract some support, but I find it curious that she’s switching to turf given her solid dirt form. She was entered in an allowance race on the dirt a few weeks ago before being scratched, so it’s probably not a great sign that she’s now in for a tag on a different surface. I don’t fully trust either of these fillies, so I want to look in a different direction. I’m taking another shot with Texas Music. I tried this filly last time and things went awry from the start. This filly runs her best races when she gets out to the front, and she didn’t break well in that July 29 race before getting shuffled out of position. She didn’t totally give up in finishing third, but she never was able to threaten the top two. Now she gets some subtle class relief, which should help, and Ricardo Santana Jr. figures to try to use her speed again. I know that there are other pace rivals in this race, but none has run quite as well as this filly. If she can ever get back to her turf sprint effort of April 2017 at Keeneland, she could easily upset this field.
RACE 7: CHARREADA (#8) / SHAMROCK BABE (#5)
There are many ways to go in this turf maiden race, which features a slew of new faces. Of the more familiar runners, the one that I think needs to be feared most is Shamrock Babe. This filly figures to be a decent price in this spot, and I think she’s a bit better than her form suggests. She ran well two back at Gulfstream when making the first move into a race that fell apart late. Then last time she was never given a fair chance as she got buried inside and never had room to run at any point in the stretch while the race was dominated by runners who closed outside. If Junior Alvarado can keep her in the clear while racing more forwardly placed this time, I think she’ll be around at the end. A few horses ship in from Kentucky for this race. Peter’s Kitten ran well in her debut for Rodolphe Brisset, and the winner of that race, Cloak of Secrecy, returned to run very well in her first start against winners. I’m using her, but I’m more interested in Charreada at a better price. This filly has run fairly well on dirt in her first two starts, but she figures to improve with this surface switch. While there aren’t an overwhelming number of turf influences in the first generation of her female family, her second dam La Reina was Grade 3-placed on turf. Furthermore, she is a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, and they are typically much more proficient over the green stuff. She has reportedly worked very well in New York for this race.
RACE 9: ELSA (#6)
The complexion of this Bolton Landing was changed somewhat by the scratch of likely favorite Shang Shang Shang, who will instead contest the Skidmore against males on Friday. Her two Welsey Ward stablemates, Chelsea Cloisters and Stillwater Cove, remain in the race, and both look to have strong chances here. Chelsea Cloisters has reportedly been a filly that her trainer is very high on, and she apparently worked well in company with Shang Shang Shang last week. It will be interesting to see how each of these fillies is ridden, given that they all have done their best work up front. I’m interested in a couple of second-time starters. Drynachan will obviously take some money for Chad Brown after easily beating New York-breds in her debut. She ran well that day and is certainly a contender here, but I’m more intrigued by Elsa at a better price. I’m not quite sure what she was facing at Laurel in her debut, but I loved the way this filly won. She rated kindly off a slow pace, and absolutely flew through the stretch while winning geared-down in the end. All of the early pace figures for that race are color-coded blue (slow pace) in TimeformUS PPs, indicating that this Godolphin-bred filly did especially well to finish as strongly as she did. It’s also encouraging that the fourth-place finisher returned to win her next start while validating the speed figure. However the field lines up after scratches, there figures to be some speed in this race to setup Elsa’s late kick.