PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1/1A - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: POWERFUL ALLY (#4)
Spieth has to be considered the horse to beat off his solid return last time, in which he finished second while earning the fastest speed figure of his career. He has a right to improve off that effort, and he shouldn't have any trouble handling the stretch-out in distance. However, it's fairly obvious, and is unlikly to offer value in what is a fairly competitive race. I'm taking a shot against him with Powerful Ally, who ran quite well in his local debut last time. There were some fairly talented runners in that race, and it mostly held together on the front end, with Powerful Ally being the only horse to make a significant run from the back of the pack. The main track surface was somewhat speed-favoring that afternoon, which may have hindered his late run. He's certainly not a horse that needs to be coming from that far off the pace, as he showed in the first two starts of his career. He broke a step slowly last time, and the rail draw forced Jose Ortiz to take him farther back than he otherwise would have been. This time the Pace Projector is predicting he will be sitting in a stalking position.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7

RACE 3: FIRE AWAY (#3)
He's not going to be any kind of generous price, but I just think Fire Away is a very likely winner of this race. It took him a couple of starts to get going at the beginning of this year, but his most recent effort in the Lure signals he may now be in the best form of his career. That race was filled with graded stakes-quality runners, and was overall a much tougher field than the one he's meeting today. Furthermore, it's not as if that race fell apart in the late stages, and he was closing fastest of all through the stretch. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, now wheels him right back on short rest, which is something that he does very well. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 24 (33 percent, $3.22 ROI) with horses running back in just 8 to 14 days. Fire Away is also stretching back out to 11 furlongs, and has won both of his prior starts at this distance. I much prefer him to the Graham Motion entry, which is favored on the morning line.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 2 with ALL
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5

RACE 4: JUMP FOR JOY (#6)
My main opinion in this race is that I want to bet against the entry. Lady Devil has turned out to be more of a turf horse, and is dropping after a voided claim was put in on her last month at Belmont. Easy Way Out has run competitive speed figures, but the layoffs, the steady drop in class, and the naming of an apprentice rider rarely used by this barn has me concerned. I want new faces. Lady Constance is probably the horse to beat, as she turns back in distance, but she doesn’t figure to offer much value. Instead, I’m taking a shot with Jump for Joy. I know she looks too slow, but there are some things to note about this filly. She crushed a maiden claiming field in her second start at Aqueduct in the winter. She was claimed that day, but that was voided once she came back with an issue and was vanned off. It’s taken a long time to get her back to the races, but I think it’s interesting that Pletcher enters her in this cheap race while withholding the claiming price (allowed due to the significant layoff). I’d normally be skeptical of a runner like this, but Pletcher’s numbers in these situations are great. During the past five years, he is 9 for 28 (32 percent, $2.67 ROI) with horses returning from layoffs of more than a year on the dirt.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7

RACE 8: IRISH PRAYER (#7)
While it's become rare for fast paces to develop in one-mile races on the inner turf course, you would have to imagine that the early pace of this race would be somewhat contested. Crafty Concorde, Damage Control, No Texting, and Ex Ex Ex all have run their best races when racing on or near the lead, so it seems unlikely their connections would want to rate them – but you never know on this circuit. I'm hoping that some pace develops, because I want closers in this race. Mobridge is the horse to beat, but he got a smart ride from Jose Lezcano last time, when he was placed close to a moderate pace and got the jump on the closers. He can win again, but his form is exposed at this point. Therefore, I'm trying to beat him with Irish Prayer, who should be a much more attractive price. At first glance, it looks like he's lost a step, but I think he just hasn't been in the right spots recently. He's not really a sprinter, and he actually didn't run that badly behind an impressive performance by runaway winner Made in Detroit two back. Now he gets back out to two turns and is placed at an appropriate class level. Mike Maker gets a 100 Trainer Rating with horses going from allowance to claiming company.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6

RACE 9: MARCH X PRESS (#5)
It will be interesting to see how the pace of this race develops, since the majority of the runners in this race showed speed in their maiden scores. Either they will have to rate for the first time, or the pace will collapse, as it did in this race last year. I'm thinking that the latter scenario is more likely, which is why I'm picking March X Press. I don't think it's any secret that this filly ran much better than the speed figures suggest in her debut, since she was off slowly and made a wild late run from last to get up and win. I know that only came against New York-breds, but she figures to take a step forward this time if she breaks more professionally. Todd Pletcher rarely runs his horses back this quickly without good reason, so I'm going to take it as a positive sign that he's striking while the iron is hot.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,9