PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   5 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 8 - 10 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 6 - 5 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 5: MIJA (#5)

This maiden special weight could feature some talented first time starters. Justifying (#8) should take some money for Steve Asmussen, who typically excels with his juvenile debut runners. She’s been working well for this debut and obviously has the pedigree to be a good one as a daughter of Justify, who is off to a strong start with his first crop. Padma (#6) was second-best in company with the highly-regarded Upper Case in her Aug. 6 drill, but that one disappointed in her debut on Sunday. She also didn’t work as well as stablemate Socially Selective (#1) in her most recent blowout. Implicated (#2) has trained well into this first start for Chad Brown, but I’m getting route vibes from her. My top pick is Mija (#5), a Stonestreet homebred daughter of Spinaway winner Rachel’s Valentina, and granddaughter of the great Rachel Alexandra. She’s by Curlin, so she’s another who may ultimately want to go farther than this. However, I like the way she’s been working into this debut. She looked best in company in that July 31 drill and then always seemed to have more in the tank when holding the edge over a stablemate from the gate on Aug. 7. Some may be deterred by the fact that John Velazquez is named on her, but he still rides some good ones for this barn.

WIN: #5 Mija, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 2,8

RACE 7: CRYPTO MAMA (#7)

This auction-restricted maiden event features a couple of fillies with experience who could attract support. U Glow Girl (#6) seems likely to take money again after getting bet down to 2-1 favoritism in her career debut. She contested a fast opening quarter that day before fading and deserves some credit for finishing ahead of her other pace rivals. However, she lost by 13 1/2 lengths to a winner who was only 2 lengths off the lead at the first call. Perhaps Leave No Trace is just a talented specimen, but I want to see some confirmation of that race’s quality after the runner-up returned to regress on turf. Brad Cox is 32 for 105 (30%, $1.49 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. These runners win, but they tend to get overbet. I’m taking the other second time starter Crypto Mama (#7). Kelly Breen is 9 for 30 (30%, $2.00 ROI) under those same parameters mentioned above for Cox. She may not have been facing the strongest field at Monmouth in her debut, but I liked the way she stayed on at the end. That pace was pretty slow relative to the final time, with all TimeformUS Pace Figures color-coded in blue. She was the only one to be passing runners late on a day that is also coded as favoring speed. She seems like one that will surely appreciate added ground as a daughter of Cloud Computing, and she gets a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario. The other horse I’d use is firster Oh Donna (#4). I liked her OBS sale workout and Ray Handal has had some success with debut runners over the past few years.

WIN: #7 Crypto Mama, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 8: GRINGOTTS (#3)

I’m not particularly fond of the short prices in this New York-bred allowance affair. Mia Bea Star (#6) might be the horse to beat based on recent form after finishing second twice so far at this meet with competitive speed figures. However, she’s going out for a barn that is 1 for 114 ($0.08 ROI) at Saratoga over the past 5 years. U Guys Are No Fun (#1)finished behind Mia Bea Star when they met on July 21, but she may fare better here with the slight cutback in distance. Sunset Louise (#4) still has upside in her fourth career start, but I didn’t see her progress much in her return from the layoff last time and she’s never run a particularly fast speed figure. I’m most interested in two fillies exiting a tougher sprint race at this level on July 22. Caramocha (#5) is the most logical of the two, as she twice finished second at this level late last year before going to the sidelines. She handles the distance and was probably using that last race as a prep. I could have put her on top, but I went for the bigger price with Gringotts (#3). This mare figures to get somewhat ignored on the tote board off her poor result last time. Six furlongs is just too short for her, and she actually ran fine behind the very talented Fingal’s Cave two back. She has races for her prior connections that give her a chance here and her recent form is a little better than it looks at first glance. Trevor McCarthy has been having a rough go of it at this meet, but that only should drive the price higher.

WIN: #3 Gringotts, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 9: SHINSUN (#3)

I readily acknowledge that Dakota Gold (#8) is a likely winner of this New York Stallion Series stakes. I’ve just seen a pattern of him getting continuously overbet and foresee him once again going off at odds that make him an unappealing wagering prospect. It was ludicrous that he got pounded down to 1-5 last time when facing a field that included a couple of rivals with quality. He had every chance to go by the winner late and was unable to get his head in front, failing to perform up to expectations. I pegged him at 3-5 on the morning line here, but won’t be surprised when he gets bet down much lower than that even in this 10-horse field. All of his rivals are running significantly slower speed figures, but a few of them are coming into this race with upside. My top pick is Shinsun (#3), who makes just the third start of his career. He wasn’t beating much of a field in his career debut against maiden claimers, but I really liked the way he leveled off through the stretch, mowing down rivals while appearing to gather momentum approaching the wire. He stepped way up in class to try starter allowance foes last time and rose to the challenge, again unleashing a furious stretch bid to nearly get up for second. He’s going to require some pace here to have a chance at the upset, and that could be an issue after scratches. Yet I think he has another step forward in him and I’m going to get rewarded at a square price if able to defeat this favorite.

WIN: #3 Shinsun, at 6-1 or greater