PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 7 - 9
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   2 - 7 - 5
Race 6:   4 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   11 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 9:   3 - 5 - 1 - 9 (Dirt: 3 - 11 - 6 - 12)
Race 10:   1 - 4 - 6 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: EASY SHOT (#1)
Free Enterprise could go favored here as he drops in class off a win at the $50k claiming level earlier in the meet. He got into that off-the-turf race as an MTO but did have to face some legitimate dirt horses in that spot. He obviously has prior speed figures that would crush this field but he may not be capable of performances like that anymore. His recent form certainly makes him a player here, but he’s facing some intriguing rivals, and I’m not keen to take a short price on him. Cantrell Hill is slightly more appealing as he makes his first start off the claim for Danny Gargan, who is notoriously dangerous with this move. This gelding is a consistent performer who seems to run well for whichever barn he’s in. He put in a game effort to close for second last time in a race where horses who were close up to the pace appeared to hold a slight advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a bit more forwardly placed this time under Luis Saez. My top pick at what figures to be a better price is Easy Shot. This gelding is moving up in class off the claim for a barn that has had limited success with this move over the years. However, I think he has a right to improve on his recent form. He had little chance facing the likes of Jalen Journey, Lone Rock, and Pioneer Spirit at Oaklawn over the winter. He ran well in his NYRA debut two back, and last time he ran much better than the finish would indicate. He broke towards the back of the pack and made a premature move into the clubhouse turn to reach a stalking position. He also did so while getting rank in behind a slow pace, tugging Lezcano every step of the way. I think he’ll appreciate the turnback in distance, as he has been effective sprinting in the past.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3
Trifecta: 1 with 2,3 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 3: SEA PINES (#2)
Morning Matcha is clearly the horse to beat as she takes another swing at this auction maiden level after finishing a fast-closing third last month. She didn’t run badly at all behind Schuylerville runner-up Mainstay in her career debut, and showed good improvement last time racing for this condition at Saratoga. She was off towards the back of the pack, and briefly had to wait for running room on the turn before storming home with a wild rally. She was finishing very fast and galloped out past the leaders. Her lack of early speed is a bit of a concern here, especially at a short price, but she is a deserving favorite. There are three very intriguing first time starters in this field. The one who could take the most money is Monshun for Ray Handal. This barn isn’t known for firing first time out, but this filly appears to be working forwardly for her debut, laying down some very fast times in her gate drills over the main track. Call Sign Charlie is also dangerous for excellent debut trainer Jorge Abreu, showing a strong gate workout from early August. Yet my top pick is Sea Pines for Jeremiah Englehart. This barn is 9 for 37 (24%, $2.23 ROI) with 2YO first time starters in dirt sprints at Saratoga over the past 5 years. The horse is by Connect, who is 4-for-27 with firsters so far in his first crop. She’s bred to be quick and precocious, as the dam was a debut winner sprinting on dirt. While the workout times may not look terribly quick, she appears to have some ability. Englehart has only won two races at the meet so far, but both came with debuting juveniles.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7,9

RACE 9: DERRYNANE (#3)
I’m not against possible favorite Poppy Flower in this Bolton Landing. She beat a decent field of males when she broke her maiden in her third career start last time at Belmont. She did get away with a soft pace on the front end, but she really finished powerfully though the lane. There is other speed signed on here, but she doesn’t seem like one who needs to be in front. She’s worked very well over the Oklahoma turf course recently and seems like the one to beat. I have more questions about the other runner who figures to take money, Fulminate. She was visually impressive winning her career debut at Gulfstream, but she was ridden hard and it’s unclear if she was beating anything of quality. She also figures to face pace pressure from the aforementioned favorite, as well as Charlee O and Stand Up Comic. I prefer a filly who can come from just off the pace, and New York-bred Derrynane appears to fit the bill. She was well backed in her debut here last month and won in stylish fashion despite only earning an 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She ran a professional race, waiting in traffic on the turn before finding a seam and finishing best through the lane. I think she has more to offer than what we saw that day. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is 10 for 33 (30%, $3.03 ROI) with debut winners making their second starts on turf over the past 5 years. I would also be interested in this filly if the race were rained off the grass. I’m not thrilled with the MTO runners that Wesley Ward has entered for dirt, and Derrynane was reportedly training very well over the dirt prior to her debut.

Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,5,7,8,9