PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 5 - 12
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 11 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 9 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   9 - 5 - 10 - 7

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: ASTOUNDING (#8)
Cite is the horse to beat as he drops out of tougher N1X allowance races for Bill Mott. He should also appreciate this slight turnback to a mile and an eighth after contesting marathon distances in his prior starts. I’ll use him, but I want to beat him with Astounding, who ran deceptively well at this level last time. At first glance, it seems like a disappointment that he lost as the 3-2 favorite, but he was against race dynamics as he had to make a four-wide move into a slow pace around the far turn while the winner led wire-to-wire while riding the rail. All three of Astounding’s turf starts are good, and it’s a good sign that he’s running back without a layoff for top turf trainer Jason Servis.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,5,7,12

RACE 4: LADY PARADIME (#3)
Northern Screamer is probably going to win this race, but she’s just not the kind of horse I can endorse at a very short price. I know she enters off four lopsided victories, but she was facing overmatched fields in those races. While this is technically a drop in class as she moves from allowance company into this $20,000 claimer, this might be one of the toughest fields she’s met recently. I’m trying to beat her with Lady Paradime. I just have to hope that she needed her first start back off the layoff last time because she has back races that would make her competitive here. Jeremiah Englehart has fantastic stats with dropdowns like this. Over the past five years, he is 43 for 89 (48 percent, $2.45 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more, including 5 for 14 on the NYRA circuit.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6,7

RACE 6: DEVINE UNION (#7)
I know that some others have run faster speed figures recently, but I think Devine Union is going to be very tough to beat as she returns from the layoff and makes her first start as a 3-year-old. Over the past five years, Chad Brown is 5 for 12 (42 percent, $2.47 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or longer in dirt sprints. This filly faced some stiff competition as a 2-year-old, losing two decisions to Kentucky Oaks third-place finisher Lockdown at Aqueduct. Furthermore, in the latter of those two losses, she was hindered by a wide trip against a strong golden rail and may have been best. She’s been working strongly for this comeback, and seven furlongs should be within her capabilities.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5

RACE 8: LA MANTA GRIS (#1)
I suppose Church Social is the horse to beat once again, and I admit that I’m one of this horse’s biggest fans – but she’s starting to run out of chances. I know that she may have been best in her last two starts as she was compromised by slow paces, but that could be the case again today in a race lacking any confirmed front-runners. There are some intriguing 3-year-olds in this race. One is Chad Brown’s Homeland Security, but she’s going to take money and will have to improve after beating an average field of maidens last time. The runner who interests me most is La Manta Gris. I like the way she wore down the leaders when winning her maiden two back, and third-place finisher La Sola Ranger has come out of that race to run well. La Manta Gris never had a chance last time when overmatched in the Regret, and she dropped too far back off the pace. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’s fast enough to be up close to the leaders early, so Julien Leparoux would be wise to take advantage of this inside post and gain a somewhat forward position. Furthermore, she’s bred to stretch out in distance since her dam was a turf runner who excelled at distances between 10 and 12 furlongs.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,8,9

RACE 9: INDULGENT (#2)
Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this Shine Again. The horse to beat is clearly Carina Mia, who has been competitive against Grade 1-caliber sprinters recently and now makes her first start for this barn. She’s the horse to beat, but Brown’s other horse, Going for Broke, also deserves a look. Over the past five years, Brown is 4 for 10 with runners turning back from route to sprints on dirt off 180-day layoffs or longer. However, she’s going to need some pace help up front. I respect both of these fillies, but I want to take a shot with Indulgent. I’m not sure that she’s quite good enough, but she’s a better horse than her last two efforts suggest. She just got the wrong trip last time as she was wrangled back off a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and she may not have liked the mud two back. Previously, she had finished a solid second behind the talented Highway Star at this distance, and she figures to work out a good stalking trip in a race lacking a ton of speed.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,6,8,10