by David Aragona
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Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 7 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 9 - 12
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 9 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 9: 9 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 10: 15 - 6 - 16 - 5
RACE 2: SMOOTH WITH A KICK (#5)
Two Chad Brown trainees are likely to vie for favoritism in this two-turn N1X allowance race. The one that appears to be coming into this with slightly stronger form is the 4-year-old filly South of the Shore, who finished second to recent Alabama winner Dunbar Road last time out. While she may attract some support off that company line, she was never a true threat to her stablemate that day, and was alarmingly dead on the board, going off at 8-1. It’s clearly been a struggle to keep this filly on the racetrack over the past few seasons, since she’s made just two starts in the past 18 months. While she’s bred to run all day, I’m not sure that she’s actually going to appreciate the stretch-out to two turns based on her efforts at Gulfstream two winters ago. I strongly prefer her stablemate Smooth With a Kick, who should be a similar price. I know this 3-year-old filly wasn’t beating much when she broke her maiden last time out, but she did earn that victory over this course and distance. She’s been a little headstrong in her races, so I thought it was encouraging that Javier Castellano was able to rate her last time and make a decisive move past horses on the far turn. She finished up with great energy, making it clear that she relishes this distance. Furthermore, she’s trained very well out of that race. Notably, she was paired with Dunbar Road in that workout on Aug. 10, and held her own under very little encouragement. Perhaps even more tellingly, she also worked in company with South of the Shore on Aug. 2 and had that filly off the bridle while she herself was coasting easily through the lane. It seems that this recent maiden winner is thriving right now.
RACE 7: AUTOSTRADE (#2)
Following the scratch of heavy favorite Air on Fire and the previously anticipated defection of Keeping the Peace, there’s little meat left on the bones in this 7th race. So Conflated will probably inherit the favorite’s role, but this horse is fairly untrustworthy. He was once good enough to easily beat a field like this, but he was on the sidelines for more than a year and showed little in his return on turf last time. Now he’s dropping down to this low-level claimer, which would seem to indicate that a return to top form is not expected. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m trying to beat him with Autostrade. This horse also has plenty of back class, but he has at least run a competitive dirt race as recently as this past February. While his form since then has been poor, you can also make some legitimate excuses for those races. He may have just not handled a muddy track in April, and then he’s proven that he’s not a turf horse in two subsequent grass starts. While Bruce Brown doesn’t have the greatest numbers off the claim, it’s not as if he has to improve this horse much from his prior dirt efforts. The presence of Mike Luzzi will ensure that he’s a square price, but Luzzi can still boot home a winner when he’s on a live mount, and this seems like a viable opportunity. Another wet track could be problematic for this horse, but I don’t want to draw too many conclusions based on one poor performance over a different dirt track.
RACE 8: NOBLAME (#9)
This off-the-turf event is fairly wide open. The only Main Track Only runner is Ardara Belle, who is stepping up in class off an easy win against inferior competition. That said, she is very fast in the early stages and should be able to rocket away to a clear early lead. She’s proven that she handles a sloppy, sealed track and she’s apparently worked well since her last victory. I’m using her, but I remain somewhat skeptical of her overall quality. The horse with the best dirt form is probably Annie Rocks, but it’s difficult to know what we’re going to get from a mare who can be somewhat inconsistent on this surface. She didn’t run well in an off-the-turf race here going this distance last summer, but she’s put forth better efforts on the main track since then. She could be compromised by a lack of pace in this race. The same goes for China Rider, who has a similar profile. Therefore, I’m going to stick with my original turf selection, Noblame. I was taking a shot with this horse on grass because she has some pedigree to handle it. However, she’s a more logical selection on dirt. She’s turned into a Charles Town specialist, winning a slew of 4 1/2 furlong races at that track, so she should appreciate the abbreviated sprint distance of this race more than some of her rivals. She needs to improve a bit to beat this field, but she’s reportedly been training well in recent weeks for Joe Sharp. She also earned one of the fastest speed figures of her career over a sloppy strip in May 2018.
RACE 9: SAMAY (#9)
This is easily the most confusing race on the card. It’s totally unclear how the public will approach a field that is as evenly-matched as this one. You can probably make a valid argument for all 12 betting interests. Six Percent would have been a formidable presence in this spot if not for his dud on the turf last time. He had enough pedigree to handle it and looked to be in a good spot, but he failed to ever get into the race. Perhaps he just can’t stand up on the grass and needs to get back to dirt. His most recent workout would appear to suggest that he’s still doing well, so he’s probably worth another shot. However, there are some other viable options who will be better prices and are coming off stronger performances. Amundson ran fine in his first start against winners last time, but a longshot won that race and it didn’t earn a particularly fast speed figure for the level. If I was going to take any runner from that July 13 race, it would be New York Hero, who is making his first start as a gelding in this spot. I’ll use all of them in some capacity, but my top pick is the Finger Lakes shipper Samay. I know that these horses can be difficult to trust, but Samay has earned some solid speed figures in this recent starts and he just seems to have a knack for winning races. This horse was actually shipped to Saratoga off a long layoff last summer and he put in a fine effort to be second at a price. Now he’s returning at the same level, having won 5 races in the interim. He figures to get a decent trip stalking outside of the other speeds and I think he’s a serious threat to beat these at what could be a square price.