by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 5 - 10 - 11
Race 4: 9 - 7 - 3 - 1A
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1A
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 9 - 10 - 8
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 10 - 2
RACE 7: IN DENILE (#9)
I see three main contenders in this New York-bred maiden race. Mrs. Orb has already run fast enough to win at this level, but she’s done so going a mile, and now is attempting to win while cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs. She’s clearly a major player, but she strikes me as more of a grinding router, so I’m not quite convinced that she possesses the speed to win going this trip. The other two fillies to consider, Makin’ Out and In Denile, debuted in the same race on June 14. Makin’ Out finished well ahead of her rival that day as she made some moderate progress around the turn and stayed on for third. She has a right to improve in her second start, but I’m actually more interested in In Denile at what figures to be a bigger price. I feel that this filly didn’t get to perform to her true potential in either of her starts at Belmont. She was a bit slow into stride in her debut and finished up decently for fourth in a race where few horses did any passing. Then when stretch out to a mile, I thought she didn’t get the right ride. The pace of that race was moderate and mostly held together up front. After breaking a bit slowly, Irad Ortiz made little effort to get her involved early and allowed her to go extremely wide on the far turn before basically wrapping up on her. She has reportedly trained more forwardly out of that effort, and I think we’ll see a bit more speed out of her this time.
RACE 9: FOCUS GROUP (#4)
This John’s Call drew a full field of runners as it came up as a fantastic handicapping puzzle. The horse to beat is probably Call Provision, who will attempt to notch his second victory at this meet after narrowly winning an optional-claiming race last month. He’s one that should not have much trouble handling the extra distance, as he ran fine going 1 1/2 miles in the Elkhorn earlier this year. This horse can be somewhat tricky to ride at times as he doesn’t always settle well, and he can lose focus in the lane. I think he’s one you have to use, but I have no problem taking a shot against him as the favorite. Rocketry and Patterson Cross finished just behind Call Provision in that July 21 race, and they’re two horses that stand to be greatly aided by the added distance. Rocketry ran the best race of his career going 2 miles in the Belmont Gold Cup last time, so stamina is no issue for him, and Patterson Cross has done his best work going 12 furlongs. Furthermore, there is very little pace in this race, and Patterson Cross is one of the few competitors who possesses the tactical speed to attain a position closer to the pace. I’m using these runners, but I actually want to bet Chad Brown’s other horse, Focus Group. I know that he’s yet to be tested against turf horses of his caliber, but I’ve been waiting for him to get a chance to go a true marathon distance like this. This son of Kitten’s Joy has shown the ability to gallop for long distances and still produce a potent late kick. He can be difficult to ride at times because it takes him a long time to wind up to top speed, but Jose Ortiz has adjusted for that in recent races, starting his move earlier on the far turn. He needs to run the best race of his career to beat this group, but he appears to be improving now as a 4-year-old and I believe he will be up to the task.
RACE 10: FLION LYNN LION (#8)
The most intriguing horse in this race is Wild Type, who drops in for a tag for the first time after a peculiar trip on July 20. She actually broke with the field that day, but was bumped soon after the start and just seemed to continuously get shuffled out of position over the next quarter mile. There were a few points at which it appeared Jose Ortiz might have had an opportunity to ride her a bit more vigorously, but he basically just wrapped up on her and as he seemed unable to steer her out of traffic. Clearly, she did not give a true account of herself on that occasion, and her connections are probably being realistic about dropping her at this point. She ran a decent speed figure in her debut at Churchill Downs and she figures to be formidable here if she can rebound. I’m certainly using her, but there’s another filly dropping out of maiden special weight company that interests me more. Flion Lynn Lion made her debut back in May for Ken McPeek, who doesn’t always have his juveniles fully cranked to win first time out. This filly broke slowly and Corey Lanerie did not ride her with any urgency thereafter, as it appears they were just giving her a race. Since then, she has been transferred into the stable of Wesley Ward, who is much more aggressive with his 2-year-olds, in general. She’s coming out of a maiden heat that may have been a bit tougher than the field Wild Type faced in her June race at Churchill Downs, and she’s now getting Lasix for her second start. I think we’ll see much more speed out of her this time, and she figures to go off at a square price in this race.