by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 9 - 7 - 8
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 10:   2 - 7 - 3 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 2: SEEKING THE SOUL (#2)
Destin, the runner-up in the 2016 Belmont Stakes, is the horse to beat here, but I'm not sure what to make of him as he continues his comeback. In his first start since a disappointing effort in last summer's Travers, he faded in the stretch after making a bid at the quarter pole. It was not a terrible performance, but he did look somewhat flat and the form of that race has not proven to be particularly strong. It's taken almost three months to get him back to the races following that effort, and a turf workout last week seems like an odd experiment for a horse that should be preparing for graded stakes races on the dirt. I think this is a good time to take a shot against him, and I believe Seeking the Soul is the most most likely runner to pull that off. This horse has always shown plenty of ability for Dallas Stewart, but it's taken him a while to put it all together. He did well two back when closing strongly into a moderate pace going a sprint distance, and then handled 1 1/8 miles over this course a few weeks ago. Horses have come back out of that race to confirm the speed figure, and I loved the way he finished that day. I think he's ready to continue his ascent up the class ladder.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL

 

RACE 5: SPECTROLITE (#6)
He's not going to be any kind of large price in this spot, but I just think Spectrolite is a very likely winner of this race and should be a clear favorite. He did well two back when going seven furlongs, a distance that may be too far for him, and he followed that up with a solid win last month. The horse that he beat that day, Alaskan Prince, returned to win next time out over this course, confirming the strong 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that Spectrolite earned for that July 16 effort. Now Spectrolite finds himself in a situation where his two primary pace rivals are dirt sprinters who have not shown the ability to flash their speed on the turf. I think Spectrolite is simply faster than those horses, and is in position to control the pace.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,5

 

RACE 7: RED CURLS (#9)
I found this race to be incredibly frustrating. The logical contenders are Tapella, Parade, and Presumptuous, but they just don’t do that much for me. I suppose Tapella is going to be the favorite, and I guess she’s the horse to beat, but it’s not as if she ran all that well in her debut. She just lumbered around the track in second while racing along a strong rail. Todd Pletcher has solid enough numbers with second-time out stretch-outs like this, but I’m skeptical of her overall ability. As for the other two, Presumptuous never wins, and Parade has upside but feels like one of these Shug McGaughey horses that everyone is going to love. I wanted to get a little creative, so I’m taking a shot with Red Curls. I know she’s never run on dirt, but I think she’s found a good spot to make her main track debut. After all, she’s by Curlin, who is a strong dirt stamina influence, and her female pedigree is primarily made up of dirt horses. Her dam won the La Lorgnette routing on dirt at Woodbine, and she’s produced primarily dirt runners, topped by One Sided, who won going this nine-furlong distance at Saratoga. I know it’s not a great sign than they’ve never run Red Curls on this surface before, but trainer Roy Lerman can be sneaky at this meet.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,5,6

 

RACE 8: MONTCLAIR (#4)
Infinite Wisdom is the horse that they all have to catch in this race, but he has some serious questions to answer as he moves up into stakes company. He's never raced farther than 1 3/8 miles, and now must stretch out an additional two furlongs. It's likely that he'll be in a position to control the pace, but I wonder if he's going to show up with as strong an effort as the one he put forth earlier in the meet. Brian Lynch's horses have not been running well at this meet, and two of the fancied runners that he sent out last weekend - albeit on the dirt - were both eased. Perhaps that was just a fluke, but I still don't totally trust this horse. I'm trying to beat him with Montclair, who makes his first start off the claim for George Weaver. Weaver has not claimed many horses, but he has had success when he's done so. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 16 (25 percent, $3.25 ROI) first off the claim. Montclair is also a marathon specialist, having been competitive in races up to 2 miles. He clearly should have won two back when he was stymied in traffic for the entire stretch drive. His last race was disappointing, but 10 furlongs is too short for him, and the fact that they're running him right back in stakes company suggests that the connections are expecting a much-improved effort.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,7 with ALL

 

RACE 9: ORINO (#4)
The two horses likely to take the most money are Voodoo Song and Nevisian Sky. If Voodoo Song repeats his last effort, he’s going to be awfully tough to beat, but this is a very different situation. He’s likely to face pace pressure from The J Y and potentially even Orino or Cliffs of Dover as he steps up to face the toughest field that he’s ever met. I slightly prefer Nevisian Sky, who did run well last time in a race that he very nearly won. However, I wonder if he’s really best going this far, since he was getting tired at the end of that race. I’m trying to beat both of them with Orino. I know that his lone performance this year was terrible, but he probably needed the race off a long layoff. H. James Bond knows how to point for this meet, and Orino has run some of his best career races up at the Spa. His recent workouts have been strong, and it feels like he could be cycling up to a top effort. If he runs his race, he is certainly good enough to win and the price is going to be fair.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7,8

 

RACE 10: I MISS MY FATHER (#2)
I generally shy away from races like this, but there’s a horse in here that I have to bet. I Miss My Father was bumped very hard at the start of his debut, costing him several lengths of position. Despite breaking in the middle of a large field, he promptly rushed up into contention through pretty solid early fractions. Furthermore, that was a day that strongly favored horses racing on the rail, and he was two to three-wide throughout his trip. He had every right to fade in the stretch and actually did quite well to hold on for sixth. If he breaks cleanly today, he’s supposed to beat this field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,7