PICKS

Race 1:   Cancelled
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   13 - 4 - 12 - 11
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 6:   13 - 11 - 3 - 9
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 10:   13 - 14 - 12 - 1A

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: FULL COMPLEMENT (#13)

I suppose Tommy Gun (#12) is the horse to beat in this off-the-turf affair, but I thought he was allowed to set a moderate pace last time at this level. This is arguably an easier spot, but I’m interested in a couple of alternatives. I have no problem with Built to Last (#4) trying dirt again, since he ran fine on it over the winter at Aqueduct before getting a poor trip on Mar. 31. He has the speed to get in front early, and that may be enough. My top pick is Full Complement (#13), who is dropping in for a tag for the first time. He ran better than it looks in his last start when he broke slowly and rushed up to chase a pace that completely fell apart. The cutback in distance will benefit him, and he’s just dropping to the right level.

WIN: #13 Full Complement, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6: RISK PROFILE (#13)

I’m pretty skeptical of Under Oath (#3), who figures to go favored now that this race was rained onto the main track. He ran well in his first couple of starts, but I don’t like that he was sent to the farm after that April maiden win, and he came back to run poorly off the layoff. They intended to get him on turf here, so I’m doubtful about his prospects to pan out as a dirt horse. There are two viable alternatives. I considered Overbore (#11), though it’s hard to get too excited about any of his dirt efforts. My top pick is the MTO entrant Risk Profile (#13). He finished a distant third here just 4 days ago, but Linda Rice has strong statistics returning on short rest. He had a right to need a start coming off the long layoff, and now he’s landing in a much softer spot. He has prior dirt races that make him competitive and he’s drawn well on the outside this time.

WIN: #13 Risk Profile, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7: PROVEN HOPE (#5)

The Prince’s Spur (#8) is the horse to beat in this spot, even on the dirt. He’s run well in both starts, but I wonder if the speed figures in each of his races could be a little inflated. I’m skeptical of him running well on the dirt again, and I’m just not thrilled at the idea of taking a very short price on him when I see at least one viable alternative. I had wanted to bet Proven Hope (#5) on turf, but I’m happy to leave him on top in this off-the-turf race. I actually don’t mind the added distance based on the way he stays on late in his races, and I would hope that Javier Castellano can attain a forward position in a race that features a fairly murky pace scenario. He’s run fine on the dirt against much better competition and likely won’t be favored.

WIN: #5 Proven Hope, at 8-5 or greater