by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 6: 10 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 8 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 6 - 11 - 5 - 2
RACE 4: SHASTA STAR (#7)
Invaluable is obviously the one to beat based on her recent form, but there are serious questions about this drop in class. She was running competitively at a much higher level as of this spring, so the fact that she’s been off for four months and is now being given away for $25k is somewhat concerning. That said, I still prefer her to fellow dropdown Timely Tradition, whose competitive form has completely abandoned her in recent races. I want the fillies and mares who appear to be doing well right now. Awesome Indra is obviously a contender as she drops back down to a realistic level after a solid showing against N1X allowance company. That wasn’t the strongest allowance field but she earned a competitive speed figure for new trainer Ed Barker, and it’s a good sign that Luis Saez stays here. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Shasta Star. Robertino Diodoro has been enjoying an excellent meet, in which his runners have finished in the exacta 11 of 26 times, and many of those weren’t short prices. This mare has back races on dirt that make her very competitive here, and her first start off the claim for Diodoro back in May suggests that she’s recapturing that form now. She performed admirably in that tougher spot against some rivals who have since run very well. She’s coming off a layoff here, but Diodoro has pointed horses to this meet and she seems well spotted for her Saratoga debut.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,6,8
RACE 5: COOL QUEST (#8)
Digital Future comes off a narrow loss as the 3-5 favorite in which he got a fair trip and just couldn’t hold off the late charge of the winner. He’s come to the stretch call with the lead in each of his last two starts before giving it up late, so perhaps the slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs will work out for him. Chad Brown is 9 for 38 (24%, $1.28 ROI) first time blinkers with maidens on the turf over 5 years. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of taking him at a short price. There are a couple over very interesting first time turfers to consider. Kawhi Me a River didn’t take much money in his winter debut at Aqueduct, but flashed good early speed before he was overtaken by the eventual winner. Now he returns from a layoff and switches to turf. The dam never won on turf, but she has produced Grade 2 turf winner Phantom Currency and multiple turf winner Phantom Opening. Both of those siblings were best going longer, but Kantharos is a 15% turf sprint sire. My top pick is the other first time turfer Cool Quest. He’s shown speed before fading in both of his starts to date. Yet he faced some good ones in each of those races, and now switches to turf for Brian Lynch, who is 5 for 33 (15%, $1.86 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time. Frosted is a 12% turf sprint sire in a small sample, and the unraced dam has produced G2-winning turfer Grand Adventure, who achieved all of his success on grass. Blinkers go on this colt, who has the speed to beat this field if he can put it all together.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5,9
RACE 6: SARATOGA CHROME (#10)
I don’t want to default to the short prices in this wide open New York-bred maiden affair. Waterville will probably take money as she drops down into the state-bred ranks after failing to get involved against open foes. She did earn a decent speed figure in that spot but she was never really in a position to be competitive. I think she’d have to improve to beat this group. Among the firsters, Whatlovelookslike is appealing, as she is a daughter of excellent turf sire English Channel and has been training decently. Yet I’m getting a little more creative with my top pick. Saratoga Chrome could get somewhat ignored here after finishing a distant last in her dirt debut. However, I don’t think she wanted any part of that surface. Her dam was unraced but she has produced 2 turf winners, and all of her siblings have handled grass. The best of those was Timeskip, who won on grass and was Grade 3-placed on synthetic at Woodbine. Tony Dutrow rarely has his firsters cranked up for their debuts and historically does better with second time starters. I liked the way she was moving over the turf in that Aug. 1 Oklahoma drill, and think she can take a big step forward here.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,6,8
RACE 7: NINTH HOUR (#6)
I suppose Binkster is the horse to beat as he drops in class out of a New York-bred N2X allowance, won by the stakes-quality foe Amundson. He was a little outrun through the early stages and stayed on mildly through the stretch to be third in the mud. He may appreciate getting back on a fast track this time, as his recent off track performances haven’t been stellar. I’d use him, but I didn’t think he ran discernably better than today’s rival Power Up Paynter, who exits the same race. Gandy Dancing is another contender who could appreciate the class drop. I'm not thrilled with his current form, but Chad Brown is a remarkable 15 for 27 (56%, $2.94 ROI) first time for a tag with non-maidens on the dirt over the past 5 years. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring horses on or near the lead, and the pace player who interests me most is Ninth Hour. This gelding makes his second start off the claim for Orlando Noda after checking in a distant fifth against New York-bred allowance company last time. While he was beaten a long way, winner Judge N Jury ran an unsually fast race for the level. Ninth Hour was hustled to the lead, but then conservatively handled when others ranged up alongside leaving the backstretch. He briefly got discouraged on the far turn, but battled on gamely through the stretch. I like him cutting back to 6 furlongs, and he gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. Orlando Noda is 6 for 12 (50%, $4.38 ROI) riding Irad Ortiz at Saratoga on the dirt.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7,8
RACE 8: HOMBRAZO (#4)
Five runners in this field faced off against each other in the July 30 race at this level. Winter Pool achieved the best result of those. He took all the money in that spot, as he was coming off a trip in his prior start at Churchill Downs. He did show some improvement, making a strong bid in mid-stretch before getting turned away by the eventual winner Runnin’ Ray. He defeated four of today’s rivals in that spot, so he’s clearly the one to beat as he takes another crack at this level. Winter Pool has the tactical speed to work out the right trip and he appears to have gotten over some of the quirks that derailed him early in his career. He’s a deserving favorite, but I’m most interested in a runner who finished behind him last time. Hombrazo showed marked improvement first off the claim for Joe Sharp at Churchill Downs in June, sailing clear of an overmatched group through the lane to win by over 4 lengths. He moved up in class for his Saratoga debut last time in that common July 30 race. He was getting a good ground-saving trip into the stretch, at which point Irad tried to nudge his way out. Het his Sharp-trained stablemate Runnin’ Ray refused to let him out of the pocket, so he had to wait for room before finishing mildly for fifth. He arguably could have finished closer if that trip had worked out. Joe Sharp is one of the few trainers who ships in to Saratoga who has a positive ROI at the Spa over the past 5 years, and he has a strong contender in this spot.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,5,7,8
Trifecta: 4 with 5 with 2,7,8
RACE 9: SERVE THE KING (#8)
This John’s Call seems wide open, as you could make a case for all seven runners entered for turf. Among the obvious contenders are Shamrocket and Ajourneytofreedom, who both come off strong efforts over this course. Shamrocket was never really a threat to win the Grade 2 Bowling Green, but he did stay on mildly to get third. He’s run some competitive speed figures against strong competition but he doesn’t possess much turn of foot and has to prove that he really wants to go this far. Ajourneytofreedom has already answered the distance question, but I think he could get overbet based on the perception that he had a difficult trip last time. Joel Rosario gave him a fantastic ride, as he saved ground on the turns and altered course in the stretch. He did have to steady briefly, but much more went right than wrong for him in that victory. I’m going in a different direction with Serve the King. This is the rare classy horse that Chad Brown has generally campaigned at non-NYRA tracks. I’m not sure if that’s necessarily a bad sign, or if it’s just due to the fact that it’s taken a long time for this well-bred horse to come around. It does seem like he’s finally hit his stride as a 5-year-old, as he delivered the best performance of his career to finish fourth in the United Nations last time. He had to wait for room briefly in upper stretch but was finishing at the end once he got into the clear. That seemed like a race of dubious quality going in, but horses have come out of it to run well. Fifth-place finisher Glynn County finished third in the Mister D. next time, and ninth-place Master Piece rebounded to finish second in the Del Mar Handicap. Progeny of Kingman generally aren’t asked to go this far, but this horse has a stamina-laden female family so he should be equipped to handle the distance. Chad Brown has won 3 of the last 6 editions of this race when it’s been contested over turf.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,6