by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1/1A - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 9 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 5 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 9 - 8
RACE 5: CHEROKEE SONG (#1)
The major players in this race exit the sixth race from July 30 at this level. The second- and third-place finishers Kitten’s Romance and Checksandbalancesfigure to attract the most support after just missing in a photo finish. I didn’t think either one had a major excuse that day, as Kitten’s Romance stalked a moderate pace and just couldn’t forge past the gate-to-wire winner. Checksandbalanceshad to rally from just off the pace, but she had dead aim at the leaders in midstretch and couldn’t quite quicken past in the late stages. They undoubtedly have landed in a softer spot here so they are deserving favorites. However, I think there’s another horse exiting that July 30 affair who deserves a look. Cherokee Song goes out for Randi Persaud, who has yet to send out a runner to hit the board in 25 starts at the current meet. Obviously it’s hard to take horses from this barn, but at least we’re going to get a square price on this filly. Unlike most runners from this stable, Cherokee Song is pretty consistent. She picked up minor awards behind decent rivals like Mr. Kringle and Lost Ticket last year. While she’s failed to finish in the money in both turf starts so far in 2020, she had legitimate excuses in each of those races. She got very rank on the backstretch two back and had nothing left for the stretch drive. Last time she was traveling well at the back of the pack around the far turn but was ridden directly into traffic just as she was commencing a rally at the quarter pole. She briefly had to steady and alter course outside, but still finished best of all once she got into the clear. I’d argue that she actually ran a better race than both of the favorites, and she’s going to offer superior value.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,9
RACE 7: MAVEN (#8)
This race loses some appeal following the scratch of likely favorite Turned Aside. Maven is my top pick as he ships in from Kentucky for Wesley Ward, but he's now likely to be a prohibitive favorite. This son of American Pharoah showed real promise as a 2-year-old, winning a fast debut race at Aqueduct on dirt before notching a Group 3 victory in France. He needed plenty of time to get back to the races following his overseas excursion, but he looked better than ever in his return at Keeneland, running some solid rivals off their feet. The Pace Projector indicates he’s quick enough to make the lead, and I believe he can take them all the way. Main rival Jack and Noah was somewhat compromised by a poor start in the Quick Call, but he still put in a poor effort, unable to keep pace with Turned Aside on the turn before backing up in the stretch. This colt appears to be at his best when he can secure a clear early advantage, and it’s hard to envision that happening here given the presence of Maven to his inside. The interesting horse to use as an alternative underneath is probably Buy Land and See. This distance may be a little short for him, but he showed ability over a variety of distances last year as a 2-year-old. He was beating a softer field in his return at Parx last time, but he at least showed that he's gotten over the illness that kept him off the track for so long.
Trifecta: 8 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3,5,6,9 with 1
RACE 8: SWEET BYE AND BYE (#6)
Blowout may go favored as she returns from a layoff and makes her 4-year-old debut for Chad Brown. She was originally scheduled to race in the De La Rose last month but had to be withdrawn from that race due to a slight setback. She now seems to be back on track and will be difficult for this field to handle if she steps forward at all with natural maturity. I’m using her prominently, and I prefer her to the other Chad Brown trainee, Catch a Bid. This filly got a good trip stalking a moderate pace in the De La Rose but was pretty disappointing as she faded in the late stages. The horse I would rather take out of that race is Clara Peeters, who was held up in some light traffic at the quarter pole and couldn’t work her way into the clear until it was too late. I don’t think she was ever winning that race, but she may have finished closer had her rider elected to loop the field. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which seems a little optimistic given the way races are usually ridden on this circuit, but she does figure to get at least an honest setup. I’m not so concerned about the pace for my top pick Sweet Bye and Bye. This mare appears capable of utilizing any running style, and is versatile enough to compete over a variety of distances. She put forth a very strong effort in her return going just 5 1/2 furlongs last time, closing from mid-pack to just miss in a race where the pace held together. Looking at Trakus, she ran the fastest final quarter-mile of anyone in the field (21.99 seconds). A mile looks like a perfect distance for her and she may be somewhat overlooked due to the fact her capable trainer is winless on the year.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 9: BASTET (#4)
There’s a lot going on in this Wednesday finale. The horse to beat appears to be Let Them Eat Cake, who finished second in a similar spot going this distance last month. She probably found herself a bit farther back in the early going than her connections would have preferred, but she saved ground on the turn and came with a solid late run to finish second. The only issue with assuming she’ll run better here is that she got a fast pace to close into last time and still couldn’t get the job done. I’m not even sure that she ran much better than Madam Maclean, who also exits that race. This spot may once again be too tough for the Steve Klesaris trainee, but she ran well to be in contention until the late stages after contesting that fast pace. I’m using her at a price. One horse who I’m slightly against is the first time starter Admaa. She’s certainly bred for turf, but Chad Brown has poor numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is just 2 for 21 (10%, $0.64 ROI) with 3-year-old and up first time starters in turf sprints. The two horses who interest me most are Thrill and Bastet. The former is probably getting back to the right surface after trying dirt last time. She ran deceptively well in her turf sprint debut, overcoming an awkward start and wide trip to finish best of all late. She has a right to improve here, though she will need to do so in order to compete at this level. I’m using her prominently, but I sided with Bastet for my top pick. She just seems like a filly that isn’t helped by added ground. Route distances are clearly too far for her, and she even appeared to get a little leg weary at the end of that 7-furlong race two back. She’s bred to be a pure sprinter on her dam’s side, so I like this turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs. She also has the tactical speed to be forwardly placed going this distance.
Win: 4
Exacta Box: 2,4,9
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,8,10