by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 8 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 12 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 9 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 7 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 11 - 5 - 6 - 10
RACE 3: OUT OF TROUBLE (#8)
Classic Lady and War Canoe figure to vie for favoritism in this spot as they both exit a July 11 race at this level. Classic Lady finished better that day and is clearly in career form right now. However, War Canoe was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who has been having a fantastic Saratoga meet. That said, Gargan’s statistics with horses off the claim on the turf are merely decent: 6 for 29 (21%, $1.22 ROI) over the past 5 years. I’m using both, but I want to look for better value. Dynamite Kitten seems like a viable alternative. She h as really come to hand since getting back on turf this year, running better than it appears on a number of occasions. That was certainly the ca se last time when she was closing resolutely into a slow pace. She’s heading in the right direction, but there’s no speed in this field, and her tendency to break slowly at times could be a hindrance as she drew the rail. I want to look outside the box, so I’m taking a shot with Out of Trouble. This mare was pretty formidable in races at this level in 2018. Yet her form took a nosedive halfway through the summer last year and she hasn’t quite gotten back to those top efforts ever since. That said, you can make some excuses for her. She didn’t really handle the step up in class to open N1X foes and you can throw out her dirt efforts, since she’s clearly better on grass. She was placed appropriately at Monmouth last time, yet they made no use of her tactical speed, instead riding her from off the pace, and ducking inside when rallying in the lane. She might be pretty dangerous in this spot if Castellano can coax her into regaining the speed she once possessed. He rode her effectively on the front end in the past and the Pace Projector indicates that the early lead is theirs for the taking in this spot.
RACE 7: SWIRLING CANDY (#4)
I don’t often highlight these 2-year-old maiden races, but this particular affair is fascinating. There is no shortage of fillies with superb turf pedigrees, and there are plenty of first-time starters that appear to have ability, to go along with a few who have run. I’m not thrilled with those that bring experience to the table, and I would imagine they will take some money. Hai Bobbi figures to be among the short prices. While she was meant for turf in her debut, she really doesn’t have that much pedigree for the surface. Ward’s 2-year-olds are generally ready to go first time out and aren’t known to improve that much in these situations. I prefer his first-time starter Nic and Zoe, who appears to be working very well. She’s by excellent turf sire Street Boss out of a half-sister to multiple turf and synthetic stakes winner Holy Helena. I would also use Chad Brown’s pair of debut runners Jazzique and Selflessly. Jazzique has the more convincing turf pedigree, but both appear to be training well. My feeling is that all of the aforementioned horses are going to attract plenty of support, which could create a situation where I’ll get a price on my top pick, Swirling Candy. George Weaver isn’t necessarily known for first out success, but he is 4 for 20(20%, $3.86 ROI) with debuting 2-year-olds in turf sprints at NYRA. I loved this filly’s 10-flat workout at the OBS sale, as she displayed a beautiful turf stride with plenty of reach. She’s bred to love the grass as a daughter of Twirling Candy from the extended female family of Perfect Shirl and Shakespeare.
RACE 8: FOUR FREEDOMS (#4)
Dark Money is the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Not only has he earned the fastest recent speed figures, but Rudy has fantastic statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 18 for 41 (44%, $3.26 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners in dirt sprints. It’s a good sign that he’s protecting him in a starter allowance, but I’m a little skeptical of that race. Whether you’re looking at Beyers of TimeformUS Speed Figures, the horses who finished behind him that day just haven’t come back to validate that number. In fact, most have run significantly slower in subsequent start. It might be situational, but I don’t think Dark Money is particularly formidable off his effort two back. I also found it curious that Rudy Rodriguez had entered him for turf a month ago before re-routing to this spot. He’s probably the most likely winner, but I have some reservations at a very short price. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and that figures to benefit the rail-drawn El Asesino. He’s a good fit for this race off his recent form, but I’m most interested in the horse who should be stalking just outside of him. Four Freedoms has the tactical speed to put himself in a good tactical position early, and I think he’s going to outrun his odds in this spot. This horse has shown the ability to compete with these on occasion, but his overall form is pretty inconsistent. However, he’s working well into this return and the fact that Chris Englehart has targeted this ambitious spot at Saratoga is certainly meaningful. This barn has not been taking random shots at this meet – they’ve sent over well-intentioned runners, the majority of whom have run well. I’ll use him with the aforementioned runners, as well as the late closers Smile Bryan and Crea’s Bklyn Law. The latter had some trouble last time, but he’s not going to get as favorable of a pace setup here.
RACE 9: ANDESITE (#7)
I have no major knocks against Tuggle, who may end up the favorite in this race. This horse showed plenty of ability on dirt in his first two starts, but he’s always been meant for grass. He was entered for this surface in his debut, and his pedigree makes it quite clear that this is supposed to be his preference. This is a Phipps pedigree through and through. He’s by their solid turf influence Point of Entry and is out of a turf-winning dam who is out of the excellent mare Dancinginmydreams. That makes her a half-sister to the Grade 1-winning turf Dancing Forever. If Tuggle has inherited some of his family’s turf ability, he will be difficult for this field to overhaul. According to the Pace Projector, he’s significantly faster than these in the early going, so he could lead them throughout. I’d consider some of the local turf horses, but they’re going to have to step up their game. Our Country looked great breaking his maiden last time, but I’m not sure that he was beating much. Eagerly will attract support after running on belatedly in his debut, but I’m not sure that his sluggish, plodding style will play well in this field. If I’m going to take a shot against Tuggle, I want to do it with a new face. My top pick is Andesite, who ships into New York off a visually impressive maiden win at Indiana Downs. That race didn’t come up too fast, but Brad Cox’s statistics suggest that he’s supposed to improve. Over the past 5 years, this barn is 7 for 14 (50%, $3.28 ROI) with 2-year-olds coming off maiden wins on the turf. This son of The Factor is bred to relish added ground, and he figures to get a trip stalking Tuggle in a race that is predominantly filled with closers.
RACE 10: KATOOK (#11)
I don’t have anything too clever to say about the favorites, Mike’s Girl and Winifred J. They finished a neck apart in a race at this level on July 13, and they’re probably meeting a slightly easier field for their rematch here. Mike’s Girl has had plenty of chances and has now failed to win at this $40,000 maiden claiming level on three straight occasions, while bet down to favoritism each time. She was hampered a t the start last time, but I’m getting tired of her act. Winifred J seems like the one more with more upside, having made just two turf starts in her career. Yet she had an absolutely perfect trip last time and couldn’t hold off Mike’s Girl late. Furthermore, Jeremiah Englehart is surprisingly just 1 for 26 (4%, $0.31 ROI) first off the claim on the turf over the past 5 years. I’m using both, but I want to get a little more creative. My top pick is Katook, who makes her first start in a sprint. This filly wasn’t disgraced when splitting the field in her debut. She was far more aggressive in her second start, fighting rider Luis Reyes for the first few furlongs while attempting to run off. The hot pace of that race, and the energy she exerted fighting instructions, cost her in the lane. Yet, that speed that she wanted to display last time could actually play well in this turf sprint. Ray Handal has a tendency to run horses at distances that are a bit too far for them before cutting back, so his turnback statistics are excellent. That’s even true on turf, where he is 4 for 18 (22%, $2.64 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints. She also gets a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco.