by David Aragona
 

PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   10 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   1/1A - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 1A - 4 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   9 - 11 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 7 - 9

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 3: STREET PASSION (#10)
I suppose Anne Dupree is going to attract some support in this race as she goes out for trainer Jonathan Thomas, whose runners usually take some money. She’s run some of the fastest turf speed figures in the field, but all of those efforts came around two turns, and I’m highly skeptical of her turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs. She does have speed on the bottom side of her pedigree, since her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Test winner Victory Ride. However, she’s a daughter of Curlin who has run her best races setting slow paces going longer distances, and now she’s likely to be outrun in the early going. The runner with the best turf sprint form is No Deal, who was a fast-closing second in a similar spot earlier in the meet. I think her connections have finally found the right class level for her, and I think she makes sense even though she’s had more chances than anyone else. I’m using her, but I think this is a race where we need to consider the first-time starters. A Bit of Mischief may take some money for Joe Sharp, who is always dangerous with his turf sprinters. However, this one doesn’t have much turf pedigree aside from whatever grass ability she inherits from her versatile sire. I’ll use her defensively, but the one that really interests me is Street Passion, who ships up from the Fair Hill Training Center for Mike Trombetta. This homebred is bred to excel in this kind of spot, since she’s a daughter of solid turf sprint sire Street Magician, and her dam was best racing on grass. Notably, her dam is also a half-sister to Thieves Guild, who won the Caress Stakes going 5 1/2 furlongs up here a few years ago. This barn can get one ready to fire in its debut and it’s a good sign to see Jose Ortiz take the mount.
 

RACE 5: MORE MISCHIEF (#3)
The horse to beat is obviously Chillinwithfriends, who comes out of one of the better New York-bred maiden races that have been run at this meet. We have seen a couple of horses come back out of that race to win, including the runner-up Elegant Zip, who beat the highly regarded Tossup in her second start. Chillinwithfriends was away in good order, but she was briefly shuffled back heading down the backstretch and found herself about 7 lengths off the pace. Once Irad Ortiz asked her to go, she launched a sustained wide run and continued closing on the top two in the lane in a race where no one else made up ground. I was impressed with the performance and I think it will take a pretty good filly to beat her. Unfortunately for her, she may have a serious rival in More Mischief. This Chad Brown filly was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut. The workout reports heading into that race were stellar and her 2-year-old sales workout was fast and effortless. She appeared to be traveling fine down the backstretch, but she quickly came off the bridle and spit the bit at the quarter pole. I’m going to hope that the sloppy track was her undoing because she ran almost too poorly to be believed. She has come back out of that race and continued to look like a talented filly in the morning, so I’m going to assume that we see a much better performance out of her over a dry track. She’s my top pick, but I would also use Mary’s Girl, who comes out of the same race. She broke about 2 lengths slowly and actually ran quite well to get up for third after making an early move into contention.
 

RACE 7: LUCKY MOVE (#6)
I’m hardly against Fair Regis, who is simply the most reliable option in a race full of fillies that need to prove they’re capable of winning at this level. I don’t want to be too hard on her for her loss last time because Satisfy, the filly that beat her, is very talented and would be a heavy favorite in this spot. She’s proven her ability to win races and Robert Falcone Jr. has demonstrated that he can keep horses like this in form. I’m not enamored with any of the fillies exiting the race won by Take Charge Aubrey. I think the winner has talent, but no one behind her did a ton of running and I think they’re all meeting a tougher foe in Fair Regis this time. The filly that intrigues me in this spot is one of the new faces, Lucky Move. There are plenty of things to like about this Kentucky shipper. She is getting a significant trainer upgrade, as she moves from the stable of John Hancock, who gets just a 39 TimeformUS Trainer Rating, to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart, a 94-rated trainer overall. Her speed figures don’t look quite as fast as those of Fair Regis, but she has actually kept solid company in all of her recent dirt starts and is arguably getting some class relief as she makes her first start against New York-breds. The distance is a question mark since she’s never sprinted, but Jeremiah Englehart has great numbers with turnbacks, and she showed some speed in a recent drill over the Oklahoma training track, apparently in company with stakes winner Aveenu Malcainu.
 

RACE 8: AVEENU MALCAINU (#9)
Stretch’s Stone is probably the horse to beat in this competitive allowance optional claiming race for New York-breds. Despite being offered up for a tag when he returned from the lengthy layoff earlier this year, he returned looking like much the same horse that he was as a 3-year-old. While he has lost at this level twice in a row, he was facing a particularly tough field two back when finishing behind the vastly improved Runaway Lute. He’s not really a two-turn horse so I can forgive his last race, and now he’s just back in the right spot. I’m using him, but I’m interested in a couple of runners exiting the Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont. Aveenu Malcainu was the favorite that day and he disappointed, fading to finish fifth after contesting the pace. It was yet another race in which he spit the bit in the stretch and refused to finish. Noticing this trend, Jeremiah Englehart performed throat surgery on him following that most recent effort, in an attempt to open up his airways. He has reportedly trained well since then, and now he’s getting back to the venue that produced his two best performances. He’s hard to fully trust, but he has reporatedly trained well into this race. His connections are apparently looking to give him a bit of a confidence boost, as he clearly possesses ability. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss the other horse coming out of the Mike Lee. May 28 at Belmont was a day that strongly favored outside paths and hindered horses that raced down on the rail. Ultimateenticement was dueling inside before fading, and deserves another chance coming out of that race, as his prior two efforts indicated that he had improved as a 3-year-old.
 

RACE 9: OPRY (#8)
Swamp Rat and Somelikeithotbrown may vie for favoritism in this With Anticipation. The former is the only horse in this race that has performed well against stakes company, having finished a closing second in the Skidmore just 12 days ago. That was his first start in two months, so it’s possible that he could move forward coming out of that performance. He doesn’t strike me as a one-dimensional sprint type, since he relaxes early in his races and can produce a powerful finish. He’s certainly bred to get more ground, since he’s by versatile turf sire Hat Trick and comes from a stamina-oriented female family. Somelikeithotbrown is the one that is committed to running in this race off his visually impressive score going 9 furlongs earlier in the meet. It’s difficult to make a speed figure for the race since it was run at an incorrect distance, but he still ran very well. I’m using both of these favorites, but the horse that interests me most is Opry. Todd Pletcher also sends out maiden winner Seanow, but Opry seems like the one with more upside. He was meant for turf in his debut but participated anyway when the race was rained off the grass. It didn’t come up as a particularly fast race, but I thought this horse put in a game effort, as he was trying hard to catch the top two over a surface that he didn’t appear to relish. Now he moves to turf and he is certainly bred to handle the surface. His versatile sire Declaration of War was a multiple Group 1 winner on turf, and this colt is a half-brother to a turf winner while his dam is a half-sister to a Grade 3 winner on turf. If he can break more sharply this time, I would like to see him work out a more forwardly-placed trip in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed.
 

RACE 10: BERNARDINO (#3)
I suppose Pirelli Tower is the horse to beat, but I could never bet this horse off his thoroughly disappointing effort on July 14. He got an absolutely perfect trip that day and had no answer whatsoever when called upon in the lane. Of those with turf experience, Jimmy Jazz seems like one of the better options. He stalked a fast pace that fell apart when last seen on June 20, and he’s been gelded since then. He also gets a rider upgrade to Joe Bravo for this race. I would also use The Sheik of Araby at a price, since he has some pedigree to take to this surface. However, this seems like a good spot to check out some first time starters. The one likely to attract the most attention is High Conviction for Chad Brown. This horse looked good working a furlong in 10 1/15 seconds at the OBS Sale as a 2-year-old, but he has only trained moderately well more recently on dirt. I’m using him, but the one that I want to bet is Bernardino. This horse is certainly bred to handle grass as a son of Paddy O’Prado, and there’s a ton of grass pedigree on his dam’s side. He’s a half-brother to New York-bred turf winners Given Fire and Manofffire – both primarily sprinters – but the Paddy O’Prado influence suggests that he should appreciate more ground. Jorge Abreu has done very good work with his first time starters in just under 2 years of training (5 for 23, 22 percent, $2.80 ROI). This one has trained well over the dirt in the morning, and he drew a great post position for this unveiling.