by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 9 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 8 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 9 - 3 - 6
Race 10: 9 - 6 - 5 - 3
RACE 2: TASIT (#8)
Call Provision is the most likely winner of this race, but I have a feeling that he’s going to be overbet. His last race represented a return to form after a slightly disappointing start to his four-year-old campaign back in June. The July 29 race that he exits did fall apart in the late stages, but he did well to rally for second while splitting horses in the stretch. A similar effort may win this race, but I don’t feel that he ran that much better than today’s rival Tasit in that event. Tasit was somewhat rank while racing towards the back of the pack that day, and also put in a good run when angled out in the stretch to run up into third. That may have seemed like a rare good effort for a horse that’s been off form, but Tasit actually ran better than it appears in his prior start at Belmont when he made a premature move to the front and flattened out late. He’s a horse that has gotten very worked up in his races, so I’m intrigued that he’s now returning as a new gelding. That could make a big difference for this horse, and it’s not as if there’s that large of a gap between him and Call Provision.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,2,5,7
RACE 4: FOREIGN AFFAIR (#2)
Transaction Tax is likely to take money in this spot just because she's being sent out by Chad Brown, who is looking to tally up wins in the last few
days of this meet. While she does have some turf pedigree in the second generation of her dam's family, this isn't actually a very good move for
Chad Brown. He has fairly poor numbers - by his standards - with horses trying turf for the first time in maiden claiming company. Perhaps she's too
fast for these and wires the field, but I'm trying to beat her. My top selection is Foreign Affair. This filly has run better than it appears in both of her
turf starts. She did well to close into a slow pace in her sprint debut here last summer. Then in her return to the races this spring, she was
unprepared for the start and spotted the field many lengths out of the gate. I like that she broke much better in her dirt race last time and showed
improved speed that day. Two turns is a question, but I think she may just be the best turf horse in this field.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
RACE 5: MONAVISTA CROSSING (#8)
Of the runners exiting the race at this level on August 3, Avery Maeve is the one that I want the most. She made the first move into a race that fell
apart late, and did well to hang on for second. She has a right to improve on that finish here, but she's not going to be much of a price and there are
some intriguing new faces to consider. One of those is Taquinia, who switches surfaces after a dominant maiden score on dirt last time. The Pace
Projector is predicting that she will be contesting the lead in the early going, but that projection is based on the speed she showed in her last dirt
race. I'm a little skeptical that she'll be quite as aggressive getting back on the turf. For that reason, I've made Monavista Crossing my top pick. I
know that she has a layoff to contend with, and that this barn isn't necessarily known for winning off lengthy breaks. However, this filly is very fast,
and actually ran extremely well in some difficult spots late last year. A few of the horses that she was facing (and beating) at Laurel would be awfully
tough in this spot. If she can get over to the rail and ride that hedge while setting moderate fractions, I think she'll be hard to pass late. This barn
came to Saratoga a few years ago with Dance to Bristol and won a stakes, so they can clearly win on this circuit.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,9
RACE 7: DURABLE GOODS (#6)
The horse to beat is Palinodie based on her deceptively strong effort in the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap at the end of last year. The pace of that
race was extremely slow, and it basically turned into a sprint to the finish. Evidently, the winner, did close from off the pace, but she got a perfect
run-through on the rail, which is where you wanted to be on the Aqueduct course that day. Palinodie had to swing wide and make a run down the
center of the course. All things considered, she did well to get as close as she did at the end. Now she comes back off a lengthy layoff, but Christophe
Clement has pretty poor numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 15 for 106 (14 percent, $1.35 ROI) with non-foreign shippers coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in turf routes. I think she'll be vulnerable today, and am trying to
beat her with Durable Goods. This filly is likely to be the shorter price of the two Chad Brown runners, and I think she should be. She's shown a great
deal of talent in her first couple of starts, and I believe there could be stakes in this one's future. I like that she placed herself a bit closer to the pace
last time, so she may get the first run on her rivals.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 6 with 3 with ALL
RACE 9: MORRISON (#1) / EVALUATOR (#9)
There are a few horses in this race that I don't want to bet. One of those is Machtree, who got a perfect trip stalking a slow pace in his maiden score,
and faces a totally different scenario this time. I also don't want any of the horses coming out of the race won by Trumpi. The winner got a perfect
trip setting a moderate pace along the rail, and his main rival Seabhac is stuck in the far outside post position here. So who's left? My top pick is
Morrison, who makes his turf debut. This horse is by good turf sire The Factor and is out of a dam that produced a stakes-placed turf runner. The
Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I'm a little skeptical. Irad Ortiz should send him from the rail to secure the coveted ground down on the
rail, and I think he can lead these all the way. The other runner I want to use is Evaluator. I know his debut came against New York-breds, but he ran
a fast race despite missing the break, and the third-place finisher returned to validate the effort with a win next time out. If the pace does heat up, I
think he's the most talented of the late runners.
Win/Place: 1,9
Exacta Key Box: 1,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11
Trifecta: 1,3,9 with 1,3,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11