PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 10 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 8 - 3 - 10

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: MADDIE’S SURPRISE (#2)

I suppose Laughter (#3) is the horse to beat off her runner-up finish at this level last time. That was her dirt debut after three turf starts to begin her career, and she certainly seemed to prefer the new surface. However, that also appeared to be a softer spot than this, as there’s a little more depth to this field. Among the new shooter is first time starter I’m Nervous Now (#6). This filly showed decent speed in a workout in company with New York-bred allowance type G Munning last week. I don’t like progeny of Animal Kingdom on dirt, but Saffie Joseph is 9 for 33 (27%, $2.82 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt sprints over 5 years. Summer Snow (#8) is one of a couple of fillies dropping in class out of maiden special weight company. She did show some improvement in her return from the layoff last time, contesting the pace before fading at the quarter pole. While she’s dropping to a more appropriate class level, I’m a little concerned about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs given her lack of stamina. My top pick is Maddie’s Surprise (#2). This filly looked like she was just being given some experience in that debut run a few weeks ago. She broke towards the back of the pack and wasn’t ridden with much urgency while reserved until the stretch. She did do some running once Jose Ortiz finally asked her, but was too far back to make an impact. I don’t mind the switch to dirt, since she really has more of a pedigree for this surface. I would expect her to show more speed in her second start.

WIN: #2 Maddie's Surprise, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,8

RACE 4: BABY BLYTHE (#2)

Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this race, sending out two of the likely favorites. Zainalarab (#3) comes in with some of the best turf speed figures, but I didn’t like the way she finished going a mile last time. She had a clear chance to seize control of the race in upper stretch and just seemed to hang. I prefer Nevisian Sunrise (#4) from that race, despite the fact that she finished just behind her stablemate. She was stymied in traffic in upper stretch and only found running room once it was too late to mount a challenge. She has more tactical speed that she showed that day, and I would expect her to get a more aggressive ride from John Velazquez. However, there are others to consider. Todd Pletcher sends out Scotish Star (#5) to try the turf for the first time. She does have some pedigree for the surface, but it’s a little odd that she’s switching surfaces after having run well on dirt in California for Richard Mandella. It’s also unusual that she’s worked exclusively on turf leading up to this. My top pick is Baby Blythe (#2). She’s coming off a poor effort going 11 furlongs earlier in the meet, but she got the wrong trip that day. She was wide throughout while far too keen trying to run off under restraint. I just don’t think the marathon distances work for her, since the slower paces tend to make her more aggressive. I like her turning back to a mile and she should settle better if Luis Saez can get her covered up early from this inside draw. The talent is there for her to be effective at this level. She just needs a trip.

WIN: #2 Baby Blythe, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 9: DETERMINEDLY (#11)

Battle of Normandy (#1) seems like the horse to beat off his solid debut score earlier in the meet. He earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day and wasn’t a major surprise, as he cost $500k as a yearling and had trained well into the race. He also drew a good post position in this large field, which should help Kendrick Carmouche work out a trip for him. He’s an obvious contender, but I just didn’t want to settle for the favorite in this wide open race. Andthewinneris (#2) also offers some appeal off his impressive maiden-breaking score at Keeneland back in April. That was accomplished over a sprint distance, but he’s bred to stretch out and finished up that race like one that shouldn’t mind some added ground. It’s also encouraging to see Flavient Prat take back the mount in a race where he seemingly had another live option. Some may find Our Dream Rye’d (#9) appealing off his win at the distance in late July. However, he was a surprise at 21-1 that day, and is going to be a much shorter price this time. Furthermore, he benefited form a hot pace up front and worked out a perfect trip, avoiding a traffic jam in the stretch. That was not the case for also-eligible entrant Determinedly (#11), who seems likely to draw into the field with a couple of runners cross-entered at Kentucky Downs. He did save more ground than the winner, but lost momentum when ridden into traffic at midstretch. Despite having to stop and start at a critical point in the race, he gathered himself and was still finishing best of all, actually making up ground on the winner late. The other horse who encountered traffic in the stretch, Rarified Flair, came back to win off his trip. If this runner draws into the race I think he’d be a major player despite the fact that he’s the lone maiden in the field.

WIN: #11 Determinedly, at 3-1 or greater