PICKS

Race 1:   CANCELLED
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   6 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   9 - 6 - 5 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 4: NONNA MADELINE (#4)
Golden Award is obviously the most likely winner of this Summer Colony – if she finishes the race. And given her recent record in that department, it’s a big ‘if.’ She’s been eased in two of her last four starts, and those performances have left trainer Bill Mott scratching his head. She appears to travel well early in her races and then just refuses to keep trying, essentially pulling herself up. Adding to the mystery is that she ran quite well in both starts in between those two non-efforts, winning the Turnback the Alarm and finishing a good second over a wet track she might not like in the Royal Delta. I won’t be surprised if she wins this race, but she’s hard to trust as the favorite. Todd Pletcher has entered a trio of fillies against her, and I think two of them are viable win candidates. Bellera is the more obvious fit for this race, having finishing third going this distance in the Delaware Handicap in her most recent start. Yet I didn’t think she had any major excuse not to be second that day, as she got a perfect trip setting a slow pace and just couldn’t quicken with her rivals at the quarter pole. She had run a few decent races as a 3-year-old last year, but I’m not thrilled with her recent form. I prefer Nonna Madeline, who will attempt the 1 1/8 miles distance for the first time. I would have been skeptical about her going this far when she was a younger horse, but she appears to have matured into a capable dirt router. She couldn’t reel in the fleet-footed Letruska in her last two starts, but nevertheless earned solid speed figures both times while finishing well clear of the rest of her competition. She figures to get a good trip stalking a moderate pace and I just think she’s coming into this in the best form.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2

RACE 6: CONTROL GROUP (#5)
This race becomes slightly less appealing following the scratch of I Love Jaxson, who figured to be favored. I'm not against his remaining entrymate Twisted Tom, who is competing at his favorite distance here. Yet he needs some pace help up front that he may not receive. Doups Point now figures to be a short price merely due to his connections, but he has found this N2X allowance condition to be a challenge, as he’s failed to finish better than third in 5 attempts at this level. He looked ready to ascend to some tougher spots last summer, but his form has tailed off a little since then. You can make some valid excuses for his recent losses, but I worry that he’s going to get overbet here as he goes out for the hottest barn on the grounds. My top pick is Control Group. Like many in this field, he’s seen better days, having won New York-bred stakes in his heyday. It appeared that he had gone completely off form earlier this year, even when racing for Jason Servis, but Rudy Rodriguez got him back on track last time. He was allowed to set a moderate pace, but nevertheless displayed improved early speed before romping to an easy victory. That effort came against cheaper, but he still earned a competitive speed figure. Now makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, whose runners have been outperforming expectations at this meet. I believe he can get in front of these and take them all the way going his favorite 9-furlong distance.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 8: SUPER DUDE (#6)
Following the scratch of Zoomer, you can make a valid case for any of the remaining 7 runners in this field. I had difficulty deciphering how the public would bet this one, but I would imagine that Intrepid Heart will attract his fair share of support on the class drop. This Todd Pletcher trainee was once considered a top contender for the 2019 Belmont Stakes, but he’s had trouble building upon that promising start to his career. He never got involved in his 4-year-old debut at Gulfstream, but did rebound to get the victory last time out at Churchill. While he won his N2X allowance condition that day, it was a fairly weak race for the level, and I don’t believe he’s actually getting much class relief despite dropping in for the $50,000 tag. There was a time when Grumps Little Tots would have been considered a formidable presence in a race like this, but he’s difficult to trust since leaving Jason Servis’s barn. That said, it’s not as if his form completely fell apart first time out for Rob Atras at Delaware last time. He has a right to build upon that effort and getting back out to 1 1/8 miles may help him. I’ll use him, but I prefer some horses who have proven that they’re in top form. Han Sense just held off a late charge from Super Dude to be second in a $40,000 claimer last month at Belmont. While it might appear that Han Sense ran the superior race from a quick glance at the fractions, the track was playing very fast in the dirt routes on July 11. As fast as the pace appeared to be, it held together and closers had trouble making up ground. Therefore, I’m inclined to upgrade the effort of Super Dude. He attempted to chase those taxing fractions, looked to be in trouble at the five-sixteenths pole, but then leveled off well in deep stretch to finish best of all. Mike Maker’s runners have been firing on all cylinders lately and this horse has proven that he can get the distance.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2,4,5,7,8