by David Aragona
Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 7 - 9
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 9 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 2 - 8 - 5 - 4
Race 10: 8 - 5 - 1 - 3
RACE 3: BEACH FRONT (#2)
The potential favorite in this wide-open turf sprint is Qian B C. While he is the horse to beat, his form is not exactly going to strike fear in the hearts of his rivals. He’s plainly run well in all three starts at this level so far this season, and he’s probably going to appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Ignore his poor debut going 5 1/2 furlongs last summer since he had significant trouble in that race. I’m using him, but some others appear to have more upside. One of those is obviously the filly Lead Guitar. She put forth an encouraging effort when she made her debut in June. She didn’t seem to be too focused in the early stages, but she was finishing very strongly in the final quarter. That wasn’t the strongest field for the level, but runner-up Andretta did return to win her next start. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz and it’s about time for the Weaver barn to start heating up. I’m using her, but I’m worried that she might get overbet. I want to look for better value, so I’m taking a shot with Beach Front, who may get somewhat overlooked in this spot. This colt has been off for a long time, but he showed some ability as a 2-year-old. He nearly won his debut over this course and distance as the favorite last summer, and his only other turf start came at Belmont in the fall when he was badly compromised by an outside trip against a severe inside bias. The layoff is obviously a concern, but Jeremiah Englehart is 7 for 26 (27%, $2.91 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf sprints over five years.
RACE 6: THE BLACK ALBUM (#5)
Uncle Benny is the class of this field as he returns from an extended break and makes his 3-year-old debut. He did little wrong as a 2-year-old last year, taking down his first two sprint starts before just running out of ground when finishing a fast-closing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It’s fair to wonder why it’s taken him so long to get back to the races, but Jason Servis is 10 for 24 (42%, $4.68 ROI) with horses returning from layoffs of 180 days or more in turf sprints over the past five years. His main rival is Archidust, who exits a decisive victory in the My Frenchman last time. That was his turf debut, and he took a huge step forward, displaying an obvious affinity for this surface. Trainer Jorge Navarro has brought some live runners to New York recently, most notable among them Shancelot, who ran one of the fastest races of the year in the Amsterdam. If this horse repeats that 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time, the rest of this field may be competing for minor awards. I respect each of these runners, but I believe there’s a third major player in this spot who figures to be a much better price. The Black Album seems like a horse who has needed a turnback in distance for a while now, and his connections are finally running him in the right spot. He was hardly disgraced in races like the BC Juvenile Turf and Transylvania, but he lacked a finishing kick at the end of those two-turn races. He’s a small horse who seems far better suited to sprinting, and he showed that in France as a 2-year-old.If he can avoid getting outrun in the early stages of this race, I believe he can compete effectively against this group.
RACE 8: CREA’S BKLYN LAW (#7)
Clench figures to attract plenty of support in this spot after finishing second to dazzling Amsterdam winner Shancelot in his most recent start at Monmouth. Not only did the winner improve his speed figure out of that effort (by 13 points), but the third-place finisher also came back to win, earning a TimeformUS Speed Figure that was eight points higher. It’s possible that Clench is just improving at the right time, but I’m somewhat reluctant to endorse a favorite who only shows one race in his past performance that justifies what is going to be a pretty short price. El Asesino is one of the alternatives that I would consider. This horse has run better than it appears in a few recent starts, notably three back when he was badly compromised by a fast pace at Churchill Downs, and then again last time when he gamely stayed on for second behind impressive winner Ruler of the Nile. The only problem with him is that there is a fair amount of early speed in this race, so he could be hounded every step of the way if Manny Franco opts for a front-running gambit. I’m using both of these horses, but my top pick is Crea’s Bklyn Law, who should work out the right trip. He rallies from off the pace, but he’s not some deep closer who is going to be badly compromised if they aren’t flying up front. I wasn’t thrilled with the trip this horse got last time, as his rider was trying to angle him inside on the far turn and ended up getting shut off while rallying up the rail in a race that was dominated by an outside closer. He has run prior speed figures that put him squarely in the mix, and Linda Rice does well off the claim with dirt sprinters.
RACE 10: SWEET GISEL (#8)
I’m not really afraid of any of the runners likely to attract support in this wide-open maiden claiming event. Horses like Teletype and Shannon’s Girl have had their chances. Both are going out for new barns, but these aren’t exactly positive trainer switches, and I want to go in a different direction. Ghostly Beauty merits some respect after she finished second to next-out winner Tiple last time. However, it’s unclear if the further turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs really suits her, considering that she started out her career going two turns. I’d be afraid of Paradise Retained, who returns from the Todd Pletcher barn after running well for Jason Servis up here last summer. She’s clearly had some issues since then, but she’s getting needed class relief and is spotted appropriately. Those are the logical contenders, but I think this is open to some more creative options. One of those is Bizness Beauty, who showed significantly improvement upon the switch to turf two back on June 16. She outran her 31-1 odds to hang on for third despite going a distance that is probably farther than her best. Given that she’s been most successful sprinting on dirt in the past, this turnback on turf seems to make sense. She’s worth throwing in at a price, but my top pick is first time turfer Sweet Gisel. This filly ran some respectable speed figures on dirt at Churchill Downs this summer, but I suspect that turf may prove to be her preferred surface. She’s by excellent grass sire Street Boss and her dam, while not a turf winner, was arguably best as a turf sprinter. Furthermore, though only one sibling won on the turf, almost all of them were best on this surface. She gets one of the best turf sprint jockeys in the country on her back and she has tactical speed in a race where most of her main rivals are late runners.