by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 11
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 6 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 6: 4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 5 - 9
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 10: 12 - 8 - 1 - 6
RACE 2: TRULY COURAGEOUS (#5)
Among those with recent form, Fiveinthemorning has to be considered the horse to beat. This filly dropped in for a tag for the first time in her last start and fell just a nose short. The turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs probably helps her, as she ran well at Saratoga last summer. However, I'm going to hold it against her that she lost that most recent start to longshot Cetara in what appeared to be a fairly weak race for the level. I'm using her, but I prefer others on top. Jorge Abreu's other horse, Ailish, certainly deserves a look. She's gone longer in all of her races up to this point, but she's faced tougher fields and gets some significant class relief here. I also can't discount Paz the Wine, who has run some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but needs to be ready to fire a top effort off the layoff. The filly that interests me most is Truly Courageous. This filly has been beaten by a couple of today's rivals, but I think she's run better than it appears in both of her starts this year. The paces of those races were both fast, as indicated by the red color-coded pace figures in each running line. Truly Courageous had every right to get tired two back in her first start back from a lengthy layoff, but I thought she battled on gamely last time when headed in the lane. The slight cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should be ideal for her, and there doesn't appear to be an abundance of early speed in this race – at least not of the sort that she's capable of producing.
RACE 4: GLASS BRIDGE (#5)
Factor This has to be considered the horse to beat, having won at this level two back while dropping out of a respectable effort against much tougher stakes foes last time. Furthermore, there does not appear to be an abundance of early speed in this race, so he may be able to control affairs up front, just as he did in that May 31 victory. I'm hardly against him, but I do think there are others to consider. Zap Daddy gets some needed class relief after failing to make an impact against tougher optional claiming fields in recent starts. Morning Stride didn't seem to handle a course with some give to it last time at Churchill Downs, but had previously run well enough to compete here. I'm using both of them, but the horse that intrigues me at a price in this race is first time turfer Glass Bridge. It's somewhat surprising that this runner has not been given a chance on turf up until this point given his pedigree, which is obviously geared towards that surface. Blame is one of the best turf influences out there currently, connecting with 17 percent of his starters on grass in an 862-horse sample. Glass Bridge's dam, herself a turf winner in Ireland, has thrown 2 turf winners, including stakes-placed grass horse Sachem Spirit. The second generation of this female family is incredibly turf-inclined, as his dam is a half-sister to a horse that finished second in the Group 1 Irish Derby, and his second dam is a 3/4-sister to El Gran Senor – a champion 3-year-old in Europe and an influential sire. Watching Glass Bridge's recent win at Monmouth, it's obvious that his stride has a turfy action to it, and I like that he has actually shown some tactical speed in his races, which should come in handy here.
RACE 6: BABY BOSS (#4)
Lady Bergen is obviously the horse to beat in this spot at what figures to be an awfully short price. She has simply been running the fastest speed figures, and has done so against tougher company. Starship Reina, who beat her last time, is a solid sprinter for Jorge Navarro, and she was also beaten by two classier fillies in the Xtra Heat two back. It's somewhat of a concern that she doesn't run very often, but it would be unwise to overly scrutinize the plans of Jason Servis, who has continued to win races at Saratoga. The only thing that could potentially get her beat is early pace pressure, since Sandy Belle to her inside has plenty of early speed. I'm hoping that Baby Boss can revert to the rating tactics that she sometimes employs, and sits just off the early leaders. Baby Boss has been running on turf recently, but this switch back to dirt intrigues me. This filly earned a solid speed figure when she won that stakes back in April, and it's conceivable that she may have improved since then. While some might argue that she regressed in the Bouwerie next time out, I believe the opposite is true. This filly ran incredibly well that day, as she contested an honest pace, put away her main early rival, and hung on gamely until the final sixteenth. It's also worth noting that the rail appeared to be dead that day, and Baby Boss appeared to lose momentum when she drifted down inside late in a race that was dominated by outside closers. While I think she's better on dirt, her recent turf efforts are actually both pretty encouraging, and I think she's going to give a solid account of herself in this spot.
RACE 7: CAPE ANGEL (#7)
If Flyoff can run back to his maiden score while stretching out to two turns for the first time, he is probably going to win this race. While he was beating inferior competition last time, he absolutely thrashed them, opening up an insurmountable margin by mid-stretch, at which point Jose Ortiz geared him down for the final eighth of a mile. It is worth noting that the 6-furlong fraction posted by the teletimer may be incorrect, as Trakus had him going about 0.5 seconds slower at that point. Regardless of the splits, he obviously is a horse with tremendous talent, yet he also may have some physical infirmities. I'm definitely using him, but George Weaver doesn't have great numbers second off a layoff with horses exiting wins on the turf. Some may call him a “last time was the time” horse, but I'm going right back to Cape Angel again. I know that he got a favorable pace setup last time, but he also produced a fantastic late kick after getting his momentum stopped briefly at the quarter pole. According to Trakus, he came home his last sixteenth of a mile in 5.80 seconds, far faster than anyone else in that race. Over the past five years, Joe Sharp has compiled an excellent record with turf horses exiting victories, as he has won right back with 46 of 195 starters in that situation (24 percent, $2.29 ROI). This horse had the look of one that had yet to fulfill his potential last time, and his performance suggests that the best may still be yet to come. At a big price, I also want to throw longshot The Dow into the mix. This horse displayed a visually impressive stretch kick when he broke his maiden against weaker foes at Gulfstream in his debut. He lost his composure when stepped up into stakes company next time out, and has been given plenty of time to recover since then. It's a good sign that they bring him back in a protected spot.
RACE 9: DIRTY (#7)
How do you assess World of Trouble switching to turf? This colt was entered in the Amsterdam two weeks ago, where he appeared to be one of the top contenders as he prepared for the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. If this race is instead being used as prep for the Jerkens, it's certainly an unconventional path to get to that race. It's not as if World of Trouble is devoid of turf pedigree, as he is a son of good turf sprint sire Kantharos and his dam has produced one turf winner. However, his female family is more geared toward dirt, and it seems awfully premature to skip the top 3- year-old dirt races in favor of a turf campaign, given how well he's run up to this point. I'm skeptical, to say the least, though I don't think you can dismiss him completely. There are plenty of alternatives from which to choose in this fascinating race. Majestic Dunhill has been effective going this distance, Fig Jelly beat a solid group of older rivals last time, and Stolen Pistol has run well while ascending the New York-bred ranks. I could also use all of them in some capacity, but the horse that interests me most is Dirty. This horse has really come into his own as a turf sprinter for Jeremiah Englehart. His maiden win at Gulfstream was a stronger race than the speed figures suggest, as has been confirmed in subsequent starts. I thought he ran incredibly well to win two back, beating the vastly improved Axtell, and last time he reached new heights with a dominant score at Laurel. You certainly don't see horses winning turf sprints over firm going by as much as 5 lengths very often. I find it very encouraging that Dirty showed the ability to rate and finish last time, as that style will come in handy here.
RACE 10: WILD COLONIAL BOY (#12)
The finale appears to be a two-horse race between Giant Boo Boo and Wild Colonial Boy. The former has a clear pace edge, as his tactical speed should ensure that he's forwardly placed throughout, whereas the latter is a deep closer. However, there is other speed in this race, as Dab figures to get sent form the inside and some of the first time starters could be quick out of the gate. The barn change for Giant Boo Boo is noteworthy, as James Riccio and Jeremiah Englehart have developed a successful partnership at the claim box. He's run well in both of his dirt starts and he will probably win this race if he takes a significant step forward. I'm not against him, but I do think Wild Colonial Boy is a viable alternative at what should be a more attractive price. He completely blew the start in his debut, taking himself well out of the race in the early going. Based on the running line for his second start, it might appear that he did the same thing, but that's not the case. He actually broke much better second time out, but got steadied when runners dropped over on him soon after the start. A horse ran off to a large lead around the turn that day, and Wild Colonial Boy put in quite the closing finish to eat into that margin at the end. This seems like a horse that should benefit from the addition of blinkers, and trainer Marcus Vitali has had success in New York before.