by David Aragona
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(Now updated for races coming off the turf)
Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 9 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 1A - 5 - 10 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 4 - 12
Race 7: 3 - 14 - 13 - 10
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 10: 9 - 6 - 5 - 3
RACE 5: DOUBLE DOWN DARE (#4)
I would assume the likely favorite will be first time starter Myawaya. Todd Pletcher has struggled with his 2-year-old first time starters in recent Saratoga seasons, but it’s a good sign that he’s electing to run this New York-bred against open company, even if it is a maiden race restricted to runners who sold at auction for $45,000 or less. This daughter of freshman sire Wicked Strong is a half-sister to the solid dirt sprint winner Decorator Jenn and she appears to be working well for her debut. I’m using her defensively, but I have some reservations about taking debut runners from this barn at short prices. There are some intriguing horses with experience to consider. One of those is obviously Ain’t None Lucky, who closed belatedly behind the impressive debut winner Shippy at Laurel. That filly returned to lose the Schuylerville by just three-quarters of a length, but her TimeformUS Speed Figure dropped off by 27 points. I’m using her as well, but my top pick is Double Down Dare. This filly debuted at Parx and only earned a modest 62 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, making these 2-year-old figures involves a lot of guesswork and that’s a number that could potentially be higher. The winner returned to improve her TimeformUS Speed Figure by nine points when finishing merely 6th in the Schuylerville, and the third-place finisher just returned to win by nearly eight lengths on Saturday, improving her speed figure by a whopping 38 points. Double Down Dare put in a gritty performance, as she was hustled to maintain the lead on the turn and refused to relinquish while battling to the wire. Trainer Steve Klesarisis 7 for 24 (29 percent, $3.81 ROI) with maiden second time starters over the past five years, so improvement can be expected.
RACE 8: DOVEY LOVEY (#3)
This is one of the most competitive races of the day. There are a couple of runners drawn towards the middle of the field that I have trouble building a case for, but the others all have to be considered serious contenders. It will be interesting to see who is favored between Maiden Beauty and Break Curfew. The former is coming off the best last-out performance, as she took down heavy favorite Behind the Couch in a New York-bred allowance. She clearly moves up on a wet track and there is rain predicted on Wednesday. Break Curfew takes a needed drop after fading in the late stages behind Takecharge Mirella last time. Yet there’s little doubt that Break Curfew ran the better race, since she carved out the fast pace (note the red color-coded pace figures) and had a right to tire in the late stages. She has the ability to get it done here, but I’m starting to wonder if she’ll ever get back to her impressive debut from last fall. As I said at the top, there are others to consider in this race who will surely be better prices. One of those is Figure It Out, who returns from a brief vacation for the low-profile James Ferraro. This filly showed some guts back in the spring in that win against Avalina on Mar. 29. She disappointed when last seen, but I think she lands in a good spot for the return and 7 furlongs seems like an ideal distance. I’m using her, but my top pick is Dovey Lovey. I think this filly could get somewhat overlooked in this race due to her dreadful recent form. Something clearly went awry when she was last seen in March, and Gary Contessa gave her plenty of time off. I think it’s a very good sign that she’s returning for a higher claiming tag than she competed for when last seen and the fact that Joel Rosario takes this mount is quite encouraging. He’s a great fit for a late-running sprinter like this, and that’s what she is. Distances of a mile and beyond are just too far for her, and she should appreciate this slight turnback. She ran deceptively well in a couple of races at Saratoga last summer, so she just might appreciate getting back to the Spa.
RACE 9: HONOR WAY (#5)
It’s been a frustrating 4-year-old season so far for Talk Veuve to Me. She just recently became eligible for this race when she was disqualified out of that Keeneland April score for a medication violation (that was an N3X allowance, but she was running above the condition she was eligible for). The Grade 3 winner was alarmingly dull in the Humana Distaff, where she appeared to break about a length slowly and was used up chasing the pace after a half-mile. Furthermore, even in that return “win,” she didn’t flash the brilliant speed we had seen early last year. That said, she is obviously the horse to beat and will win this race with anything close to a top effort. Yet how short of a price are you willing to accept? Carrera Cat could be a thorn in her side, since she is fast enough to outrun the favorite to the lead. This New York-bred filly was originally tabbed as a turf horse, but she has been a revelation since the connections accidentally discovered that she’s far better on dirt. She did well to survive a fast pace in her return in May and then stepped forward in her second start off the bench. Do note that her best speed figures have been earned on wet tracks, but there is some rain in the forecast for Wednesday. I’m using her, but I’m hoping that she helps to set the table for my top pick. Honor Way is in for the tag since she’s already won at this level three times. She has traded decisions with Bluegrass Jamboree in each of their last two outings, but she was best on both occasions. Last time, in a crafty move, Jose Lezcano made sure to trap Jose Ortiz on the rail when he was trying to make his move coming into the lane. Yet, despite that trouble, Honor Way was still able to nail her rival on the wire while closing into a slow pace. It seems as if Linda Rice has gotten her back into top form, and I think she can run them all down late if the early pace is fair.