by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   9 - 3 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   8 - 10 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   6 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 10:   5 - 1 - 3 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 3

Maddie’s Grace (#1) looks pretty formidable on paper in this starter allowance turf sprint. Her last two TimeformUS Figures of 100 and 104 tower over most of her rivals in this field. However, I have some doubts about the form of those races. She and runner-up Spooky Lady drew well clear of a maiden claiming field in her turf debut in April, but that filly came back to regress by 9 points in her next start. Last time she was beaten by Solib, who has also regressed in two subsequent starts, though she did get a poor trip last week. I do like the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs for her, but she’s going to take all the money with Irad Ortiz up, and I think she’s vulnerable. Western Lane (#6) could attract some support after picking up pieces at this level last time. However, she's at the mercy of pace, and it’s unclear if she will be suited by this turnback in distance. I’m more intrigued by new faces. Golden Dagger (#4) made one start in April over the synthetic track at Turfway where she launched a wide far turn move to take over. She will have to run faster to beat this field, but she’s bred to move up on turf as a half-sister to 4 turf winners, including stakes winner The Hunted. My top pick is Now Showing (#5), who just barely hung on to break her maiden in an open $40k maiden claimer last time. Her 88 TimeformUS Figure doesn’t quite measure up against the favorite, but I think she exits a solid race. Runner-up River Tay came back to hold her own against maiden special weight company next time out, improving by 4 points, and third-place finisher Linarite has since improved in two subsequent starts. Now Showing had excuses in her first couple of turf starts, but put it all together last time. She seems like one who should handle the distance given her tactical speed, and she might fly under the radar again.

Fair Value:
#5 NOW SHOWING, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 7

The horse to beat in this state-bred optional claimer is Collaboration (#7), who has run well in every turf start of her career. She crossed the wire first two back at Belmont, but was controversially disqualified and placed behind Im Just Kiddin. Yet she earned her N1X victory stylishly last time and now looks ready for this step up in class. Her versatile running style makes her especially dangerous going this one-mile distance, and everything Linda Rice sends out at this meet has been live. That main rival Im Just Kiddin (#9) might have run the better race when the two of them met on May 29, since she drew a wide post and had to overcome a poor start. However, she drew outside once again and loses regular rider Jose Ortiz to another rival. This filly can be difficult to ride, as we saw last time in the Wild Applause when she got very rank. Perhaps the switch to Luis Saez signals intent to go forward this time. They’re the two obvious contenders, but there are some interesting alternatives to consider. Classic Colors (#1) has been on a tumultuous journey since running at this meet last year. She was offered at the Keeneland November sale, where she sold for just $6,000. The new connections raced her on dirt, ultimately dropping her into a $5,000 claimer at Charles Town. She was claimed that day, and subsequently purchased by Michael Dubb and partners, who gave her to Brittany Russell. That team got her back on grass in May, and she rewarded them with a victory. She once was good enough to beat a field at this level, and now seems to be rounding back into form. My top pick is another horse who hasn’t done much racing on grass recently. Toolcat (#8) has been a synthetic specialist for much of the past few seasons, primarily racing at Presque Isle Downs. However, she did race on turf a few times during her 3-year-old season, and put forth performances that would suggest it’s actually her preferred surface. She ran a huge race at 37-1 in the 2020 Christiana Stakes at Delaware, just getting passed for second at the wire after dueling the winner around the track. Since hasn’t tried this surface since winning a turf race in June 2021. However, her recent efforts since returning as a 6-year-old suggest that she’s still in top form. She’s not a dirt horse, but ran the best dirt race of her career off the layoff at Finger Lakes two back. Then last time she made a sustained bid to win convincingly at Presque Isle. She must be doing well for her connections to finally take this shot on the big stage, and it’s a good sign when Jose Ortiz accepts a mount for low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#8 TOOLCAT, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 8

It’s fairly obvious that Sixtythreecaliber (#4) is a deserving favorite in this optional claimer. Her last couple of starts against stakes company have been excellent, holding her own against the likes of Idiomatic, Le Da Vida, and Instertate Daydream. She has paired up 118 TimeformUS Figures, which tower over most of her rivals’ recent form. Yet there is some concern about her recent workload. Those two top efforts came within the span of three weeks, and now she’s making her third start in just 46 days. She’s the most likely winner, but she is facing some quality rivals. Gerrymander (#2) and Movie Moxy faced off in a race at this same level in June, with the latter mare getting the upper hand to cause a minor upset. Gerrymander is a little more dangerous given the scratch of Movie Moxy, as now it's unclear who else will apply early pressure. Joel Rosario rated her on the front end last time, and I wonder if he’ll be a bit more aggressive in this race. She does appear to be racing herself into top form. My top pick is Nostalgic (#3), who returns from a lengthy layoff to launch her 4-year-old campaign. Bill Mott has good stats with this move, as he is 12 for 44 (27%, $2.13 ROI) off 180-360 day layoffs in dirt allowance races over 5 years, and 6 for 19 (32%, $2.86 ROI) in dirt routes within that sample. This filly has struggled with consistency, but she’s good enough to beat a field like this at her best. I don’t mind the slight cutback for her, and she did seem to respond well in her only other start on Lasix from early last year. She’s training well for her return and should be a fair price this time.

Fair Value:
#3 NOSTALGIC, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 9

I’m not too fond of the expected favorites in this allowance turf sprint. Anna Karenine (#4) could go favored by default with Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. in her corner. While she’s run pretty well in both recent turf sprints, I thought she had pretty good trips on those occasions and failed to capitalize. She had every chance to reel in gate-to-wire winner Lady Milagro two back, and last time saved ground stalking the leaders before getting run down by closers late. Perhaps the slight turnback will suit her, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price on her. Gun Boat (#5) exits the same June 3 race, but I’m willing to be more forgiving of her effort, since it was her first start off a yearlong layoff. She ran off to the front end, as she usually does, and just got a bit tired in the last furlong. She figures to be fitter for this start, but she’s still a horse who has always shown that tendency to shorten stride at the very end of her races. Cadencia (#3) has been climbing the class ladder this year for William Morey and makes sense after just missing at this level last time. That was going a mile, and the race got somewhat easier for her when a spill in upper stretch severely compromised her two main rivals. Nevertheless, she still did well to nearly survive an honest pace going a distance that may be too far for her. I like her cutting back, and she has the versatility to rally from just off the pace. My top pick is a new face in this lineup. Little Mombo (#6) makes her turf debut here, but she’s certainly bred for this surface. Into Mischief is an underrated turf sire, getting an above average 14 percent winners from his turf sprint starters, according to the DRF Sire Report. The dam only raced on turf during her career, winning three times and even placing in a stakes. Her progeny haven’t gotten many chances on turf, but Little Mombo strikes me as a filly who should handle it. It may be no coincidence that her only victory on dirt came over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill, which can sometimes suit turf horses better than harrowed dirt. Her connections might have been thinking along those lines a year ago, because she was entered for grass and rained off the turf last June. She possesses versatile speed and is always quick out of the gate, so she should be sharp enough for this 5 1/2-furlong distance.

Fair Value:
#6 LITTLE MOMBO, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 10

The likely favorites in this Statue of Liberty edition of the NYSS exit the Cupecoy’s Joy last month at Belmont. Mz Big Bucks (#3) upset the field that day after getting away with an uncontested early lead. She set an honest pace and easily held her rivals at bay in a race that was dominated by forwardly-placed runners. She’s arguably the horse to beat here, but she will have to stretch out to two turns for the first time. She has a few full-siblings by War Dancer, all of which have been best over sprint distances, so it’s no guarantee that she’ll be as effective at a mile. Her main rival is obviously Red Moon (#1), who finished third in the Cupecoy’s Joy last time. She was the only horse who was able to launch a significant rally from the back of the pack, and made up a ton of ground through the lane despite never threatening the winner. The race flow and a slow start seemed to compromise her that day, and she could be more effective here if some pace develops. However, she gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz, and I suspect she’s going to take plenty of money, perhaps even going favored. It’s hard for me to build a case for anyone else from the Cupecoy’s Joy, though longshot Bea Bea Kaz (#7) did get a strange trip that day. She may not be good enough, but could hit the board if ridden with more urgency. My top pick is a filly coming from a different direction. Clover Street (#5) makes her turf debut here, and she’s a horse who I have been waiting to see get a chance on grass. She has that high-striding action and extension to her stride that suggests she might have turf inclination. Her pedigree for the surface is decent, as Teuflesburg is a 10% turf route sire. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Boardroom, and the second dam won on turf, so there’s some breeding for the surface switch. I like that she appears to be coming into this race in the best form of her career, off a pair of runner-up finishes against allowance company. She possesses a versatile running style and should handle the one-mile trip on turf since her best dirt races have come at 7 furlongs.

Fair Value:
#5 CLOVER STREET, at 7-1 or greater