by David Aragona
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Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 4 - 9
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 2 - 9 - 10 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 12 - 9 - 10
Race 8: 1 - 12 - 10 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 9 - 3 - 2 - 6
RACE 4: COINAGE (#3)
Ready A. P. could go favored as she tackles males in this Rick Violette. She’s returning on just 20 days’ rest following her impressive debut victory late in the Belmont meet. She wasn’t facing a particularly good field that day, and her winning 69 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the lowest in this field. However, she did well to overcome a poor start and won geared down. She’s also worked extremely well since that race, indicating that she’s likely capable of better. I won’t be surprised when she runs well here, or even wins, but she’s not a horse that I really want to take as the potential favorite. I prefer some of her male rivals who raced earlier in the Belmont meet. Barese defeated Coinage when they each made their debuts on May 21, but Coinage has raced since then, breaking his maiden last month in impressive fashion. Barese can obviously improve in his second start, but we already know that Coinage has moved forward out of that race. He arguably won just as easily as Ready A. P., and he did so in slightly faster time against a better field. Surprise Boss, who he defeated soundly in that maiden score, returned to run much faster in his next start, as did fourth-place finisher Juggler, who raced here last weekend. This well-bred son of Breeders’ Cup winner Bar of Gold probably still has some room for improvement, and I think he’s going to appreciate this slight stretch-out in distance. He’s my top pick in a very competitive race.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 5
RACE 6: MORNING MATCHA (#2)
Both horses exiting the Churchill Downs maiden race of this same variety could take money in here. Let’s Be Clear was sent off as the 4-5 favorite in that spot, but she didn’t get away from the gate all that well. She got a good trip after that, but it took her a long time to get going in the lane before just missing in a blanket finish. Brad Cox is 24 for 85 (28%, $1.34 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years, so these types are often overbet. I actually prefer Take the Backroads from that race, since Tom Amoss has much stronger statistics with his maiden second time starters in dirt sprints. Yet I’m looking in a different direction for my top pick. There are also a couple of runners exiting an open maiden race at Monmouth. Next Tuesday could go favored here after finishing well behind impressive winner Mainstay, who returned to finish a good second in the G3 Schuylerville last week. This filly ran a pretty professional race and figures to show speed once again. However, I’m more interested in Morning Matcha from that race. She was pretty green that day, as it appeared that she was trying to lug in on the turn and through much of the stretch drive while her rider was trying to coax her to rally wide; did get into gear late. She did eventually get up for third, but could have been second if she had ever straightened out. Trainer Butch Reid is 9 for 35 (26%, $1.95 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. She’s also one that should appreciate the added ground.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,9,10
RACE 7: FAIR HAIRED BOY (#2)
There are a few runners dropping in class out of N1X allowance company in this intriguing $40k claimer. Prefect and Win d’Oro both raced over 1 1/2 miles in their most recent starts. Prefect seemed to improve a bit with the stretch-out, so I’m somewhat skeptical about the turnback for him, even dropping in class. And I’m just not sure that Win d’Oro is that good, as he was never really a factor in either race at the N1X level. Given the lack of speed signed on, Gimme Some Mo deserves a look. He ran poorly in his most recent turf start, but he’s had some time off since then. He has a few back races that put him in contention, and Irad Ortiz should feel the need to make good use of his tactical speed from this outside post position. I’m using him prominently, but I’m most interested in a less obvious entrant. Fair Haired Boy looks way too slow based on speed figures, but I think it’s worth taking his form apart a bit. He ran well to break his maiden at Colonial Downs when he was a 2-year-old, and then was hardly disgraced trying the Laurel Futurity three weeks later. He was steadied slightly on the backstretch of that stakes, and had to alter course in the lane, hitting his best stride too late. That race didn’t come back fast then, but it’s been somewhat productive. Third-place finisher Doc Boy won a turf stakes as a 3-year-old, and fourth-place finisher Field Pass is now a multiple graded stakes winner. Even Grade 1 Carter winner Mischevious Alex was in that field, though he’s not a turf horse. Something obviously happened for Fair Haired Boy to be off for so long after that, but I think his return at Gulfstream last time was merely a prep. He’s not a 5-furlong horse, and he was running on late before galloping out well. I think he should show more speed with that tightener under his best, and he’s placed appropriately for a barn that has been dangerous on this circuit.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,9,10,11,12
RACE 8: DISCRETIONARY MARQ (#1)
Fast Getaway is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back into New York-bred company for the first time since summer 2020. Something obviously went amiss in his first start of the year when he propped on the far turn, but he ran a much more professional race last time. He got a good trip in that May 20 performance and ultimately just wasn’t good enough. Yet now he’s dropping to a more realistic level, and he’s drawn well on the outside. My only problems are that he’s been gone for another two months, and he’s never been the most trustworthy win candidate, so I’m reluctant to take him at a short price. Most of the other major players in this race are coming out of the June 13 heat at this same level at Belmont. Three Outlaws achieved the best result that day, closing from mid-pack to get up for second. He’s handled this 5 1/2 furlong distance in the past and appears to be back in strong form. He’s a contender, but there’s another runner from that race who interests me more. Discretionary Marq didn’t get the savviest ride last time when his rider made the confusing decision to rate him in the first furlong despite the fact that he broke very well. This horse has typically done his best running when he’s close to the early pace, so he was at a disadvantage right from the start. Prior to that, he had run deceptively well two back, when he got involved chasing a wickedly fast pace set by a horse who faded to last. A repeat of that effort makes him very dangerous here, and I’m hoping that Irad Ortiz gets a little more aggressive this time as he takes over the reins.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,10,12
Trifecta: 1,12 with 1,12 with 5,6,9,10