by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 9 - 10
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 10: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
RACE 4: TENDERFOOT (#7)
Breithorn figures to vie for favoritism with Macho Jack in this maiden claimer. The former is dropping in for a tag for the first time after trying turf in his first start off the layoff for Bill Mott. Mott now owns this former Juddmonte runner and has struggled to figure out what his best distance or surface might be. He obviously achieved his best result sprinting on dirt behind subsequent stakes winner Montauk Traffic, so now he’s trying that once again. He certainly fits here from a speed figure standpoint, but others appear to have more upside. Macho Jack makes his 4-year-old debut after finishing a strong second when last seen at Keeneland in October. He clearly can handle this distance, and should contend here if he’s ready off the layoff. Though it is worth noting that he’s starting for Rudy Rodriguez in name only, as he’s been training in Kentucky all summer. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Tenderfoot at what I’m hoping is a slightly better price. This runner drops in for a tag for the first time while making his first start as a new gelding. He put in an even effort in his debut last November and then was laid up for a long time. He made his return at Churchill Downs in June, and ran deceptively well within the context of that race. He was reserved at the back of the pack early, and seemingly was full of run coming around the far turn. Yet Chris Landeros rode him into traffic at the quarter pole before he passed some tired runners late. This son of Graydar appears to have more ability than he’s shown in the afternoons, and I think he can take a step forward here with the drop in class. At a bigger price, I would also use Brees Bayou in his second start off the layoff. He ran deceptively well in his return chasing the very fast Ink Splotz and should be the controlling speed this time.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,4
RACE 5: CRACK SHOT (#2)
I’m hardly against the likely favorite Maxwell Esquire, but I do worry that he could be slightly overbet on the drop in class. He did face significantly better fields in his first two starts as a 3-year-old, both of which came against open company. Yet he’s going to attract plenty of support based on how well he ran when fourth in the Sir Cat Stakes last time, and I wouldn’t go too overboard praising that performance. While he got within 3 lengths of the winner that day, margins can be compressed in turf races. The printed running line makes it seem like he put in a stronger late rally than was actually the case. He could win here by merely repeating that performance, but I prefer a rival with more speed. Crack Shot broke his maiden over this course last year, defeating the very talented filly Lead Guitar. I think the 5 1/2 furlong distance of these Saratoga turf sprints really works in his favor, as he often tires in the late stages going the 6 furlongs at Belmont. That was certainly the case last time out in his return from the layoff as he sped off to a clear early lead through unreasonably fast early fractions. His TimeformUS Pace Figure of 164 for the opening quarter last time is among the highest you’ll see, so it’s not exactly surprising that he faded in the final furlong in a race dominated by closers. Jeremiah Englehart takes the blinkers off this time in an attempt to get him to relax a little in the early stages. Yet he’s still the early speed and I think he can run these off their feet.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 8 with 4,6,7,10
RACE 6: SUMMER BOURBON (#8)
The scratch of Eye Luv Lulu opens this race up to many contenders. Just Right could also attract support, and he’s another runner who is not totally trustworthy. He showed some talent as a 3-year-old, especially once he was stretched out in distance. Yet now he’s been off for quite some time and is returning for just a $25,000 tag while cutting back to a sprint. Todd Pletcher has solid stats off layoffs and this runner is certainly quick enough to keep up with what should be a moderate early tempo. But wouldn’t they be aiming at a tougher spot if he was really doing well? I’m going to try to beat these two with Summer Bourbon. He ran like a horse that needed his first start back off the layoff at Belmont, but then he regressed when Rudy brought him back on 12 days’ rest. However, you can make some excuses for him. That last race featured a strong early pace and he was simply outrun early while racing extremely wide on the turn. He does his best work when he can stalk from close range, and he should work out that kind of trip given the lack of front-running speed in this affair. I think he’s going to rebound.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,6,7
RACE 9: SHARP STARR (#3)
Of the three main players, the one who has experience at this distance is Singular Sensation. She almost upset the very talented Ratajkowski last summer, giving that rival all she could handle through the stretch of a 9-furlong contest. Yet she was off for a very long time after that. While she was soundly defeated in her return at Belmont, it appeared that there was a rail bias on June 25 and she stalked outside the entire way while the winner rode the inside path. I expect her to take a step forward second off the layoff, but it still remains to be seen if she can get back to the form that she displayed last August. Eloquent Speaker also figures to attract support as she stretches out off a maiden victory. She beat a pretty strong field in that June 12 heat, as a couple runners have already returned to win out of that race. This daughter of Flatter has some size to her so she should handle some extra ground, but this stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles will be a real test of stamina. I’m also concerned that she has more sprint breeding on her dam’s side, as her dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinters Bridgehampton and Stormy Novel. I think she’s vulnerable on the stretch-out. My top pick is recent maiden winner Sharp Starr. She ran like a filly that wanted no part of sprinting early in her career, and she took a massive step forward when she was stretched out to a mile at Belmont last time. She looked a little uncomfortable early, but finished with power, drawing off by 5 lengths. I don’t think the 9 furlongs will be an issue given the stamina in her female family.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 6,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 6,8 with 1,6,7,8
RACE 10: LOTTIE’S MIZZION (#3)
I suppose Central Perk is going to be a slight favorite in this spot just because she’s a second time starter for Linda Rice. I know that move works often enough to justify betting it blindly, but I’m not enamored with this filly. Linda Rice tried to sneak her into a few off-the-turf spots, including putting her in for a tag, before finally entering her on the dirt last time, so she wasn’t showing much confidence. Adriatic Holiday put in more of an effort that day, and she will certainly appreciate the drop in class. Yet she’s had more chances and doesn’t have as much upside as some others. I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Lottie’s Mizzion, who ran deceptively well off the layoff last time. I wasn’t thrilled with the ride that Jorge Vargas gave her, as he immediately took her in hand after the start despite the fact that she broke sharply. From there, he seemed intent on relegating her to the back of the pack even though this filly clearly wanted to do more, fighting his restraint. He finally let her roll nearing the quarter pole and she was the only horse making up notable ground in the late stages. Whatever the intention was last time, that race should serve as a perfect prep for this spot. Now she gets a significant upgrade to Jose Ortiz and I think she’s very likely to outrun her odds.
Win/Place: 3