by David Aragona
Now Available: TimeformUS Saratoga PPs and Betting Strategies
Gain access to TimeformUS PPs for all 40 days of the Saratoga meet, plus betting strategies – recommended wagers for each of David Aragona's daily Top Plays, fully constructed multi-race tickets including daily Pick-4s and Pick-5s, and additional strategic information around playing every card. You will also receive exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more ›
Race 1: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5 (Dirt: 2 - 7 - 11 - 9)
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 8 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 5 - 1 (Dirt: 3 - 2 - 1 - 10)
Race 8: 1A - 7 - 4 - 8 (Dirt: 1A - 7 - 1 - 4)
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 11 - 5 - 2 - 7 (Dirt: 4 - 7 - 2 - 12)
RACE 4: RIFF RAFF (#2)
Three of the top contenders in this spot are coming out of a race at this level on June 10. Candid Desire got the money that day as he made a wide premature move to the lead at the top of the stretch, and just held off a late charge from Summer Bourbon. The race earned high speed figures, and horses have since come back to validate that it was indeed a very fast race. I thought Candid Desire ran by far the best race of the closers consider that early move, but he was claimed out of that effort by Dave Cannizzo, who does not have great numbers off the claim. Furthermore, there is plenty of rain in the forecast for Wednesday, and Candid Desire has always struggled over wet tracks. Summer Bourbon comes back for Rudy Rodriguez, but I thought he was the beneficiary of race dynamics last time, as he sat back and made the last move. He’s going to be a short price here, and I think others are better win candidates. I instead prefer Riff Raff. While he didn’t run as well as the two aforementioned contenders that day, it was his first start off an extended layoff, so he had a right to need the start. I liked his last race, as he made a solid late run behind the vastly improved Runaway Lute. Riff Raff has not minded some moisture in the past and I like the rider switch to Joel Rosario, who does excellent work with closing sprinters. He figures to go off at the best price of the main contenders.
RACE 5: AQUARIVA (#8)
This New York-bred two-year-old maiden race is filled with first-time starters and looks to be nearly inscrutable at first glance. While I generally don’t want to get too enthusiastic about races like this, I do think there’s a filly with some quality in this field. A few of these New York-breds came with hefty price tags, but I’m somewhat skeptical of Empress Sophia and Time Warp, the most expensive runners in this group. D. Wayne Lukas works his horses fast in the mornings, so I’m somewhat concerned about the lackluster series of drills for Empress Sophia. Furthermore, Lukas is not known for winning with firsters, even when they’re talented. Time Warp has been working decently for Ken McPeek, but this barn typically doesn’t get them too cranked up for their first starts, and she’s also bred to go longer distances on the dirt. I instead want to bet the other horse that brought a 6-figure price tag, and that’s Aquariva. Robert Ribaudo is not a prolific debut trainer, but he can have one ready from time to time and I think it’s a good sign that this filly is debuting so early in the season. I liked the way that she moved through her 10-flat workout at the OBS sale earlier in the year, and she appears to have trained very forwardly since then. We haven’t seen much from freshman sire Flashback, but this filly is bred to be a decent sprinter on the female side of her pedigree, as she’s half-sister to multiple sprint winners Ave’s Halo and Belief System.
RACE 7: HOPE’S ROAR (#8)
Now that there’s a chance that this race may stay on turf, let’s dive in. Hollywood Cat is obviously the horse to beat off the claim by the red-hot Jason Servis barn. She had already been in career-best form for her prior trainer, Carlos Martin, earning a win at the $40,000 conditioned claiming level by a desperate head last time. One mile appears to be her best distance, and she’s not only getting a significant trainer upgrade, she’s also getting a very positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz. If she improves nearly as much as Jason Servis’s other recent acquisitions, she may be too tough for this field to handle. On the other hand, she’s also going to be a very short price in this spot, and I think she faces a real rival in Hope’s Roar. I know that Hope’s Roar is coming off a loss at this level, but she actually ran incredibly well considering the dynamics of that race. Transaction Tax sped off to the early lead through solid fractions while Hope’s Roar sat far behind. It had become very difficult to make up ground over the Belmont turf course at that point in the meet, and Hope’s Roar made a strong late run at the winner while clearly outrunning the race favorite Hoponthebusgus for second. I think it’s a good sign that Transaction Tax returned to run so well against N1X allowance company here on Sunday. Hope’s Roar has clearly improved by leaps and bounds in recent months. If she gets any pace to close into, she could be difficult to hold off late. I’ll use her with the favorite, and I’ll also throw in Sweet Connie Girl, who has run some improved races since returning from the layoff. She was caught in traffic last time, though the race was collapsing late.
RACE 10: FOUR KNIGHTS (#11)
I’m not thrilled with many of the horses that are going to take money in this spot, assuming this race stays on turf. I suppose Moneigh Moproblems in the horse to beat, but he’s had chances. I will say that he has been facing significantly tougher company in his recent starts, and he clearly has done his best work on the turf. I just think there are other ways to go in this complicated race. Union Ranks appeals to me a bit more as he actually ran very well in his second start going a mile. He set a legitimate pace that day and was run down by a couple of Chad Brown horses that have a bit of ability. However, he completely failed to show up in his only subsequent turf start and is now immediately dropped in for the $40,000 tag. There may be some holes in this runner, but I do think he’s a top threat to wire the field. The horse that intrigues me most is Four Knights off the claim by Joe Sharp. This barn knows how to win races in New York, and I think it’s acquired a horse that has not yet run to his true potential. This horse had trouble getting his act to together over the winter at Gulfstream, as he was rank and difficult to handle in a few races. He didn’t run badly in any of those starts, but always seemed to not save enough for the stretch drive. In his last turf start at Churchill on May 24, Julien Leparoux may have overcompensated for this runner’s early aggression by dragging him all the way back to the tail end of a strung-out field. That race actually held together well on the front end, and Four Knights made a pretty eye-catching move from the lane once Leparoux was able to work him into the clear. If he had been placed closer to the pace, he certainly would have been at least second that day. I think it’s interesting that Joe Sharp has gelded this horse since his last start and I expect him to put forth a better effort this time.