by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 9 - 7 - 12
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 1 - 2B
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 8 - 9
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 11 - 6 - 9 - 13
RACE 3: COMBAT CONTROLLER (#6)
The horse to beat is Bunyaan, who is getting some needed class relief after fading in recent starts against talented starter-allowance company. I'm not overly concerned that he's dropping in for such a cheap claiming tag since he's going out for connections who are looking to be the leading owner at the Saratoga meet. While I respect him, I want to take a shot with Combat Controller, who figures to be a more attractive price as he ships in from Kentucky for trainer Al Stall. This horse has shown a tendency to get somewhat rank early in his races, and last time, his rider overcompensated for that early aggression, wrangling him back off the pace and burying him down on the rail. He never got totally clear in the stretch as he altered course in traffic late. I think he's better than that effort, and a projected fast pace in this race should help him settle early.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
RACE 5: SISELLA (#2)
I don't have a strong argument against anyone who proclaims A Dixie Twister to be the most likely winner of this race. She's just been facing tougher fields out of town and deserves to be a short price. However, there is not that much speed signed on for this affair, and A Dixie Twister is a late runner who typically needs some help up front. The other logical horse to consider is Deltalina, who was cooked in an extremely fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in PPs) in her last start at Belmont. While the pace did her in that day, her form has been tailing off overall. I'll use both of these runners, but I'm most interested in a longshot who also exits Deltalina's last race. Sisella was making her turf debut that day, a surface that she is actually bred to handle. While her performance looks incredibly dull at first glance, the replay reveals that she was never really asked to be competitive by her rider. She typically flashes early speed, but her rider restrained her in the opening furlongs before parking her on the far outside for the run around the turn, essentially giving her no chance. I don't know if she's actually talented enough to win this race, but NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale did point out how physically well suited she was to sprinting on turf in her prerace analysis last time, so I'm inclined to give her one more shot. Dylan Davis needs to be more aggressive.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,7
RACE 7: MAN OF WIREGRASS (#6)
The likely favorite is Vintage Matters, who has put forth respectable efforts in both of his starts against winners. He has made one attempt going today's elongated distance, but that came against a much tougher field of open maidens, so he deserves another chance in a spot like this. I'll use him, along with Clutch Cargo, who also should appreciate this stretch-out in distance. However, the problem with both of these horses is that they're plodding late runners who are somewhat pace-dependent. That's why I’m turning to Man of Wiregrass as my top selection. I realize that he's never actually won a race on turf, but he's run well enough over this surface on a couple of occasions and actually showed some signs of life sprinting against a decent field of open claimers last time out. The fact that Mike Maker is stretching him out in this kind of race gives me confidence. Over the past five years, Maker is 12 for 46 (26 percent, $3.19 ROI) in turf races at 10 furlongs or farther on the NYRA circuit. This son of First Dude should be able to control the pace under Kendrick Carmouche.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,8
Trifecta: 6 with 2,3,8 with 2,3,8
RACE 8: HELDATGUNPOINT (#4)
While a number of runners have legitimate chances to win this race, the one who I think will offer the best value is Heldatgunpoint. His most recent effort in New York-bred stakes company was very strong, and his low Beyer Speed Figure does not fully encapsulate his performance. He was setting a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in the TimeformUS PPs), and the two horses chasing him in the early going both faded badly in the stretch. Crawdaddy and T Loves a Fight, who finished first and third in there, are talented runners who would be formidable in this spot, and you can make the argument that Heldatgunpoint ran better than both of them. I don't mind the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs for him since he showed in his maiden win that he's comfortable stalking the pace. He would be a massive overlay if he were to go off as high as his morning-line odds of 12-1.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,9,10
RACE 10: AMERICASPRINCESS (#11)
I don't fully trust the favorites in this wide-open finale. She Remembered is the horse to beat off her decent second at this level last time, but she was basically picking up pieces after the race was over. She didn't actually run that much better than Saturdaynightfling, who was a closing third at the same level two weeks later, making up good ground in a race that othwerise held together up front. I'll use both of these fillies, but my top pick is Americasprincess. At first glance, she looks too slow. However, a closer examination of her form reveals that prior to the layoff in 2015, she was routinely running in races in which she had no chance – against much tougher maiden special weight company. She had a right to need her first start back after that nearly 21-month gap, and her two most recent starts at this level aren't actually that bad. Most notably, last time she ran pretty well when making a middle move to the lead on the backstretch, opening up 3 lengths on the far turn, before fading in the late stages. Now she gets a pretty significant rider switch to Angel Arroyo and the Pace Projector indicates that she's quick enough to make the early lead.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Box: 6,9,11