PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 7 - 3 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 6:   11 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 8:   9 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 10:   9 - 2 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: WEYHILL FARM RD. (#6)

There is no shortage of turf pedigrees in this New York-bred maiden affair for two-year-olds. Christophe Clement could send out the favorite in #2 Disarmed, a son of Maclean’s Music, who does get 14% turf sprint winners despite being known more as a dirt sire. The dam produced one sibling to win on turf, the only one to try it. He appears to be working well for her debut, holding his own in company with a highly regarded open company stablemate in that July 8 turf drill. He also recorded a fast gate work last week and looks ready with Rosario climbing aboard. He’ll take the money, but other firsters are also bred to do well in this spot. #5 Noble Huntsman is out of a dam who won multiple turf races, including her debut. Both #1 Twenty Six Black and #7 Vince the Prince are by strong turf sprint influence War Dancer, and each have some grass breeding on the bottom of their pedigrees as well. Yet I’m most interested in the only runner with experience, who also hails from the Christophe Clement barn. #6 Weyhill Farm Rd. debuted on dirt last month at Belmont, but seemed like one that would be meant for turf down the line. Though his sire hasn’t had much success with his progeny on this surface, the dam was strictly a turf performer, winning 3 of 5 starts on this surface, including a stakes. She’s also produced two decent turf winners from 5 foals to try this surface. Christophe Clement is 5 for 18 (28%, $3.11 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years, and this gelding figures to be a better price than his stablemate.

WIN: #6 Weyhill Farm Rd., at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4: KIMARI (#4)

I fully acknowledge that #2 Bella Sofia is the most likely winner of this Grade 2 Honorable Miss, but she figures to be an awfully short price as she lines up against just three rivals. She arguably ran the best race of her 2021 campaign over this surface when taking down the Test last summer, and she’ll be tough to beat if reproducing that form. While she’s run reasonably well in both starts so far this year, I haven’t been blown away either time. She had to work awfully hard to fend off today’s rival #1 Frank’s Rockette in the Vagrancy two back. She did show some subtly improvement second off the layoff in the Bed O Roses, but Obligatory arguably ran the better race given Bella Sofia’s pace advantage. Bella Sofia figures to be sending to the front once again, but the speedy Ohio shipper drawn to her outside could be a thorn in her side. I’m looking for #4 Kimari to get the right setup from just off the pace. She needs to rebound after disappointing results in her last couple of starts, but I think her form is better than it looks. She got the wrong kind of ride in the Madison two back, when sent forward into a wicked early pace that ultimately fell apart. She actually did well to hang on for third, earning a strong 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her performance. She didn’t perform as well in the Derby City Distaff last time, but I thought Joel Rosario made the wrong decision to take her so far off the pace. She’s better when she can be somewhat engaged early, and I think they’ll make that adjustment here.

WIN: #4 Kimari, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5: MOONEY LOVE (#6)

I’m somewhat against #2 Forwardly, who could take money in this 12-furlong allowance affair. He did seem to improve on the stretch-out when breaking his maiden last time, but that was a very weak field for the level. Runner-up Remote came back to disappoint at a short price earlier in the meet. He figures to attract support due to the connections in this small field, and I find others more appealing. I’m not trying to beat Euro shipper #6 Mooney Love, who just looks too classy for this field. I doubt he’s been in the Bill Mott barn for very long (there isn’t even a local work showing) so I won’t bother with Mott’s statistics with these types of runners. This 4-year-old has a fantastic pedigree, being by Epsom Derby winner Australia out of a productive Italian female family. His dam is a half-sister to many multiple stakes winners in Italy, but her best sibling is clearly Sea of Class, the Yorkshire and Irish Oaks winner who just missed in the 2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Mooney Love is obviously bred to be a good one, but it’s taken him some time to figure things out. His 3-year-old season yielded mixed results, but he looked like a new horse off the layoff for Andreas Wohler last time. He mowed that field down with ease in the stretch despite going off over 15-1, earning a Timeform Rating that makes him clearly superior to this bunch. If he can merely maintain that form 5 weeks on, I doubt he loses here. The one alternative that I would consider is #4 Curbstone. This 3-year-old hasn’t yet won on turf, but I thought he ran well to be second on this surface as a 2-year-old. He’s since won going 10 furlongs on dirt, so he has stamina, and I think stretching out on grass could be his true calling. He also figures to be forward in a race that lacks pace.

WIN: #6 Mooney Love, at 3-2 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 6: BANTERRA (#11)

This New York-bred maiden affair is a state-bred race in name only. Amazingly, all 10 runners in the main body of the field, plus the first also-eligible, are by Kentucky sires. Regardless of what you call it, this seems like a nice group of 2-year-olds. There’s certainly quality among those with prior experience, all of whom are contenders. #1 Gambling Girl seems like the one most likely to move forward after getting shuffled back in the early stages of her debut before launching a nice stretch rally. She only finished a half-length behind #2 Recognize, who got a much better trip. Yet Bill Mott has better numbers with maiden second time starters than does Todd Pletcher, so perhaps the latter filly is also a candidate to improve. Among those who have run, I’m most interested in #4 Danseur d’Oro. She faced males in her debut at Belmont, and did well to hang on for third after chasing the quick Andiamo a Firenze through the first 3 furlongs. She was also racing off the rail on a day when the inside may have been an advantage. She’s a major threat now facing her own gender. Yet there are also some intriguing first time starters in this lineup. #6 Disruption and #5 Silver Skillet have worked well for leading 2-year-old barns Chad Brown and Christophe Clement, respectively. However, the filly that interests me most is that also eligible runner #11 Banterra. Steve Asmussen has exceptional stats with his debuting 2-year-olds in Saratoga dirt sprints, going 14 for 52 (27%, $2.92 ROI) over 5 years. She worked a nice 10-flat furlong at the OBS April sale, and Practical Joke is a strong debut sire. She’s shown some talent in the morning, particularly in her most recent gate work when besting a workmate over 5 furlongs. She has ability and could get somewhat overlooked if she draws in.

WIN: #11 Banterra, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,4

RACE 10: MATTAPOISETT (#9)

The finale might be the most wide open race on the card. You can make a case for most of the 10 remaining entrants, and there’s no clear favorite. I expect that #2 Adam’s Angel will attract some support as she returns from a layoff. This daughter of Into Mischief was a little cold on the board for her debut at Aqueduct last year, considering that she was a $1 million yearling. She actually ran pretty well to finish second, while no match for the impressive winner who hasn’t run back since. She can obviously win here with any kind of improvement, though Shug McGaughey’s stats off layoffs like this with dirt sprinters are just mediocre. Following the scratch of my original top pick Alessia, I now am elevating my longshot second choice #9 Mattapoisett. She’s a second time starter who didn’t take any money in her debut, going off at 16-1. Yet she showed decent tactical speed before fading in a race that did fall apart in the late stages. I expect her to be fitter second time out for Bill Mott, who is 10 for 29 (34%, $3.48 ROI) with 3YO+ maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

WIN: #9 Mattapoisett, at 8-1 or greater