by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 1A - 7
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 3: 4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 1A - 6 - 2
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 10: 2 - 4 - 5 - 1
RACE 2: BIG AL’S GAL (#1)
I have no major knocks against the likely favorites Belleza and Cross Keys other than the fact that they’re both expected to be short prices. Belleza actually ran quite well off the layoff last time as she turned back to a sprint for the first time in her career. Belleza displayed improved early speed while stalking a fast pace and made what appeared to be a winning move to the lead at the quarter pole. Yet she was reeled in late by a longshot first time starter. A repeat of that performance makes her the horse to beat, but I’m certainly afraid of her main rival Cross Keys. This filly has a right to improve in her second start after being asked to go a mile against maiden special weight company first time out. She showed good speed in the early stages of that affair and actually put up a good fight down the lane to hang on for fourth against some superior rivals. The drop in class is realistic and less distance should suit her. I’m using them both, but my top pick is Big Al’s Gal. This filly also debuted at the maiden special weight level, but did so on turf. While she is a daughter of turf specialist Al Khali, her damside family is all dirt influences, and she is a half-sister to decent dirt sprinter Wushu Warrior. She broke slowly first time out and never seemed to handle the grass. Her trainer, Chris Englehart, has fantastic numbers with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 18 (39%, $4.03 ROI) with maidens going from turf to dirt in sprints at NYRA. She has to step up against two legitimate rivals, but she figures to be a square price.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7
RACE 4: LUCKY ASSET (#4)
The Shadwell entry is likely to attract plenty of support, primarily due to the presence of Ashiham. This horse showed promise early on and got his first chance around two turns in May. While he lost as the favorite in that May 30 affair, he nevertheless earned a solid 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is certainly good enough to beat this field. He then tried a longer route last time but was compromised when he leapt up at the start. He still put in a strong late run to get up for second in a race that was wired on the front end. He obviously makes sense in here, but the value probably lies elsewhere. A couple of horses exit the same race at Churchill Downs on June 20. Hometown was making his debut that day and put in an encouraging effort. After getting away a little slowly he made a long, sustained run into contention before flattening out. He clearly has a right to improve for a trainer that does well with second-time starter, but I’m a little concerned about the added distance. Constitution has imparted more precocity than stamina to his progeny thus far, and this colt is a half-brother to Coup de Grace, who won the Grade 2 Amsterdam sprinting. I actually prefer the other horse coming out of Kentucky. Lucky Asset has yet to run a bad race in three starts sprinting. He looked uncomfortable racing down inside on the far turn of that June 20 maiden at Churchill, but put in a strong stretch rally once clear, passing Hometown in the late stages. He used a similar strategy last time, but ran into some traffic at the quarter pole and then had to alter course again a furlong out. This gelding is unmistakably bred to go longer. Honor Code wins with an impressive 18% of his dirt route starters, and Lucky Asset is a half-brother to Grade 1-winning turf marathoner Twilight Eclipse.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,6
RACE 7: SECRETARY AT WAR (#5)
Sayyaaf may win this race at a short price, but he seems like a candidate to get overbet for Chad Brown. He ran pretty well in his first start off the layoff last time at Belmont, but he did what he often does, giving up a mid-stretch lead after setting his own pace up front. He’s run well over a variety of distances, and I’m not sure that 5 1/2 furlongs is necessarily his best. With other speeds in here, I think he’s vulnerable. The biggest thorn in his side figures to be Vici, and I think this horse is dangerous to take them all the way up front. Vici has run deceptively well in his last two starts, as he was facing a tough field off the layoff in the Elusive Quality and then set an unreasonably fast pace going 7 furlongs last time. He’s better over shorter disances, and this turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs is perfect. The one issue is that he’s 4 for 41 lifetime and hasn’t found the winner’s circle in quite some time. I think this race is open to some bigger prices, and the one who intrigues me most is Secretary At War. He’s primarily focused on turf routes during his career, but I think he deserves a chance to sprint. He’s only tried true turf sprints twice in his career, and both performances are better than they seem. He only managed to finish fourth in the 2019 Clocker’s Corner going down the hill at Santa Anita, but that race was won with one of the most underrated freakish performances of last year. He then turned all the way back to 5 furlongs on turf in his last start, and did well to close for fourth after losing position at multiple points through the opening quarter mile. He’s been hampered in both starts for Norm Casse and I think he can rebound here as long as some pace develops up front.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 4,5,8
RACE 8: MICROSCOPE (#4)
Blackjack Davey is the horse to beat as he steps up against winners for the first time. He seemed like a horse who badly needed a start when he made his debut in June, and he took the typical step forward that you would expect from a Linda Rice second time starter next time out. In hindsight, there wasn’t much behind in that race, as he won with ease after making a blitz to the lead at the quarter pole. While he got the 1 1/16 miles that day, I still think there are some outstanding questions about this runner’s stamina, especially as he tries two turns for the first time. He’s bred to be a sprinter, and I’m just a little skeptical that he’s truly cut out for this demanding 9 furlongs at Saratoga. His main rival appears to be Bebe Banker, and he does appear to have a significant pace advantage in this spot. Yet he, too, seems like a dubious candidate to excel over this distance. Furthermore, he earned that last Beyer against a woefully weak group and has struggled at this N1X level in the past. I believe both favorites are somewhat vulnerable, so I want to go in a different direction. Danny California is a viable alternative, as he clearly relishes this 1 1/8 miles trip. Yet he’s not exactly a winning type and there’s another horse who intrigues me at a far bigger price. Microscope is a 3-year-old who comes in a little light on speed figures. Yet I think he’s run deceptively well in a few of his races. He nearly defeated next-out stakes winner Chowda when they met in January before he was compromised by a slow pace when they rematched in the Gander. He then returned from a layoff last time in the slop at Belmont and put in a decent effort. That distance is too short for him, yet he closed well to be fifth in a race where few made moves from the back of the pack. As a son of stamina influence Micromanage, I’ve been waiting for this horse to stretch out around two turns, and he finally gets that chance. Based on his winter form, it’s hardly outside the realm of possibility that he could step forward 10 points and upset the favorites.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8
Trifecta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8 with 2,6,8
RACE 9: WISSAHICKON (#1)
Devamani is the horse to beat as he drops out of graded stakes company. Chad Brown has done a fantastic job with a horse who at one time was an underachiever. He couldn’t match strides with a tough group in the Grade 1 Manhattan last time, but his prior two efforts going shorter were solid. The cutback in distance here should help. The one flaw is that he’s never been much of a winning type, often content to settle for minor awards. His main rival among those with recent form is Breaking the Rules. This horse appeared to be bound for graded stakes success in early 2019 before his form left him. He returned from a yearlong layoff last time and it appeared that the time away had done him well. He got a great trip, but came with a strong stretch bid to win, holding off next-out Saratoga winner Digital Age. If he continues progressing, he’ll be tough to beat. Yet I’m most interested in a new face. Wissahickon makes his first start in this country after winning 8 of 12 races in England for trainer John Gosden. While he’s primarily raced on synthetic, he has run very well on a turf a number of times, including a dazzling win in the 33-horse Cambridgeshire Handicap in 2018. Timeform dubbed that effort “one of the great handicap performances of modern times” (from Foreign Comments in TimeformUS PPs). He went off form in early 2019 and hasn’t been seen since, but now this American-bred son of Tapit makes his Stateside debut for Jonathan Thomas. He looks like one that should be well suited to American racing, and his Timeform Ratings suggest that he may be the best horse in the field.
Win: 1
Exacta Box: 1,7
Trifecta: 1 with 7,8 with 2,3,7,8
RACE 10: LET THEM EAT CAKE (#2)
In many ways this race centers around Sequin. If this filly has progressed from her 2-year-old season, she’s probably going to beat this field. She finished second in all three turf starts last year, and two of the horses who beat her in those races subsequently went on to win stakes. She ran quite well when last seen at Keeneland in October, overcoming a very wide trip in a fast race. You have to use her here, but it’s fair to be a little concerned about what we might get from this once precocious filly as she returns from a layoff. A logical alternative is Zaccapa, who finished second in her U. S. debut at Belmont. She makes sense, but it’s unclear if the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs will necessarily help her. I’m more interested in Let Them Eat Cake. This filly has twice sprinted on dirt and twice routed on turf. So, it makes sense that she would now try sprinting on turf, especially since she’s faded late in both of those turf routes. It seems especially likely that turf sprinting will be her niche, since she’s a half-sister to Free As a Bird, a multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter who earned over $600,000. She appears to be working very well for this return from a brief layoff, and she picks up Joel Rosario. She’s my top pick, but I also want to include longshot Madam Maclean at a price, primarily underneath in exotics. This filly finished far back in her debut, but she showed some latent ability that day. She leapt at the start, spotting the field as much as 6 lengths. While she never got into contention thereafter, she was ridden conservatively and still made a mild late move. Perhaps this isn’t the right spot, but Madam Maclean has more ability than that debut would let on.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6