by David Aragona
 

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

 
Race 1:   6 - 5 - 7 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 14 - 7
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   9 - 1 - 3 - 10
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   13 - 11 - 4 - 8

PLAYS

 
RACE 2: ZANDORA (#1)
She’s Not Bluffing is obviously the horse to beat as she moves up in class off the claim. While she lost for the cheaper $16,000 conditioned claiming level last time, she nevertheless earned a speed figure that makes her the horse to beat in this spot. While she’s coming out of a good barn, Gary Gullo does excellent work off the claim. Over the past 5 years, he is 27 for 108 (25%, $2.33 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints. I’m not against her, but I do want to take a shot with another in this race. Zandora figures to be the second choice, and I understand why some might be skeptical given her turf résumé. Yet she did win her only dirt start, albeit in the slop, and she got over the going without any issue that day. The progeny of Jimmy Creed do tend to display a typically “turfy” action, but they still run well on the dirt so I don’t think this surface switch should pose any real problem. She’s been tiring in the late stages of her recent races, so I’m not opposed to this turnback in distance. The blinkers go on for this start and she reportedly worked well in them the other day. There is not a ton of speed in this race, and the Pace Projector indicates that she should not be that far behind the favorite in the early going.
 

RACE 7: ENGLISH SOUL (#1)
I’m not saying anything clever in pointing out that Mascha is the horse to beat. Chad Brown doesn’t excellent work with foreign shippers, and seems to send out some live ones at the Spa every year. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 15 (40%, $3.17 ROI) with such runners in turf races at Saratoga. This filly showed real promise in France as a 3-year-old, earning a Group 3 placing in her first start for Jean-Claude Rouget. She barely lost to Homerique, who has subsequently become a top U. S. turf filly, and Mascha arguably could have beaten her with a better trip. However, she faltered in her final start a year ago and she’s been off for a long time. She’s reportedly been training adequately, though not necessarily like she’s one of Brown’s top turf horses. I respect her, but I wouldn’t just concede this race to her off the layoff. In the redrawn version o f this race, English Soul looks very dangerous as the likely controlling speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’ll be clearly in front in a situation favoring the leader. While she’s never won on the turf, I think you can argue that she’s actually best on this surface. I thought her return at Belmont last time was very encouraging, since she was rated off the pace and came with a solid stretch rally behind the in-form Dream Passage. I won’t be surprised if she steps forward off that effort, and the likely pace advantage could make her difficult to run down, especially for a late closer like Mascha.
 

RACE 8: AQUARIVA (#9)
There are many contenders in this wide-open turf sprint. In my estimation, the horse to beat is Citizen Matzo, who would be awfully formidable if she were able to repeat her turf sprint win against open company from April at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Roy Lerman was winning at a high rate at that time of year and he’s cooled off a bit since then. Yet Citizen Matzo has nevertheless managed to run some solid speed figures on dirt recently, and that’s probably not even her preferred surface. I’m using her, but there are many others to consider. Short Pour is one that deserves a look off her trip last time. She was attempting to make a run from far back and lost momentum as Jose Ortiz had to alter course after riding her into traffic in the lane. That race was probably stronger than the speed figures indicate and she has a right to step forward second off the layoff. I just wonder if she may find 5 1/2 furlongs to be a bit short for her. I primarily say that because there is not much speed signed on for this race. Longshot Cirque figures to be sent from the outside, but she’s more accustomed to setting slower paces that she’ll encounter in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that first-time turfer Aquariva is fast enough to make the front, and I think such an advantage could make her very dangerous. This filly was reportedly training well last summer before she had to be scratched at Saratoga. She ultimately made her debut in an off-the-turf event at Belmont and won with the help of a rail bias. Yet she was meant for turf and her pedigree indicates she should handle it, since she’s a half-sister to 4-time turf winner Ave’s Halo. It’s a good sign that John Velazquez takes the mount back and she should be a square price.
 

RACE 9: MR. AL’S GAL (#4)
It’s been a frustrating year so far for Talk Veuve to Me. Her series of woes continued last time out when she was pretty dull finishing third as the 8-5 public choice. Perhaps she didn’t like the mud, or perhaps she’s just lost the blazing early speed that she possessed as a younger horse. The winner Special Relativity just put in a stronger effort, and this Saratoga specialist has a tendency to do that up here. The Diodoro barn, inactive in New York since December, has returned this summer with a small stable of live runners and they’ve fired. While this might seem like a big step up in class at first glance, the field for this stakes has come up unusually weak. I’m using them, but I prefer a couple of runners drawn to the outside. Saguaro Row has been rejuvenated since her connections focused on sprint races this year. She beat weaker fields in two wins earlier this year before disappoint against stakes company last time. She tends to make things difficult on her riders by breaking a step slowly and then getting keen thereafter, so it’s no surprise that a patient rider like Joel Rosario has been a good fit. This outside draw is perfect for her, but I worry about the 7 furlongs. My top pick is the 11-time winner Mr. Al’s Gal. Her connections have focused on two-turn affairs for the majority of her career, yet her overall tally in sprints is 9- 7-1-0, so it’s no surprise that she responded well to the cutback last time. That wasn't the toughest field at Delaware, but it was her first start off a layoff and she has earned faster speed figures in the past. She obviously has the stamina to get 7 furlongs and this barn sent out longshot Minit to Stardom to take the Honorable Miss last week. If Talk Veuve to doesn’t recapture her early speed, this mare could control the pace, and she’ll be a square price.
 

RACE 10: LIDO KEY (#13)
To a Friend would be awfully tough for this field to handle if she were to run back to her debut effort from Gulfstream in April. She closed well that day behind subsequent stakes winner Valiance and next-out winner Dyna Passer. She’s now cutting back and taking off the blinkers that made her so keen in that marathon race last time. This drop in for $40,000 does seem a little hasty, but the Thomas stable runs horses where they can be competitive. I’m using her prominently, but she’s going to be a short price and there are a number of horses who can win this. Morelikelythannot is another short price who can certainly win, but she also does very little for me from a value standpoint. Chad Brown does very well with this move, connecting with 9 of 21 (43%, $3.33 ROI) maiden special weight to maiden claiming droppers on turf at Saratoga over 5 years. She was terrible as the favorite at Monmouth last time, but now the blinkers come off so perhaps she can get back to her better efforts. I still prefer others. Elite Mom is a little intriguing. She would also appreciate a race run at a faster tempo, since she tends to get rank in the early going of slowly-paced races. That was a problem two back when she was caught behind horses early, and it was again an issue last time when she had to race outside without cover. Jose Ortiz basically gave up at the quarter pole in that June 13 race, so the margin of defeat is exaggerated. She has more ability than she’s displayed as of yet and this drop can wake her up. I’m using her, but my top pick (if she draws in) is Lido Key. This filly actually ran a solid race in her return at Aqueduct this spring, finishing fourth after stalking the pace. She crossed the wire just 1 1/2 lengths behind Romantic Pursuit, who has since gone on to do some nice things, and she was just a half-length behind possible race favorite Morelikelythannot. I’m not sure what happened last time, but she didn’t appear to be traveling that well through the stretch, and then she was a vet scratch on June 13. Yet recently things appeared to have turned out. She’s logging much faster workout times than she ever has before and she looked great in a drill a last week. It’s a good sign whenever Gary Contessa reaches out to Joel Rosario and I wouldn’t be surprised if this filly runs a lot better than last time in this return to the races.