PICKS

Race 1:   CANCELLED
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 11 - 9 - 6
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   10 - 14 - 12 - 4
Race 7:   1 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 1 - 3
Race 10:   7 - 16 - 5 - 15

PLAYS

RACE 5: RINGGOOD (#1)
Brunate is the horse to beat as he makes his third attempt to win at this level up at the Spa. He’s been improving gradually with each start this summer and a repeat of his last speed figure certainly gives him a chance against this crew. However, he’s going to attract plenty of support due to the success of the H. James Bond barn, especially as go-to rider Luis Saez climbs aboard. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but there are a couple of more interesting alternatives. The obvious one is Royal Suspect, who gets some needed class relief after putting in even efforts against tougher fields in his two prior starts for Bruce Levine. He should be fit to go this 7-furlong distance after fading in a route two back and then chasing the very fast Unrelenting Force, who ran them off their feet last time. His speed figures compare favorably to Brunate and I’d make the case that he’s a slightly more likely winner at a better price. Yet my top pick is the horse drawn just to his inside. Ringgood switches back to dirt after returning from the layoff on turf 10 days ago. He was never a major factor that day, but I’m intrigued by this surface switch. He last ran on the main track in December, when he put in a deceptively strong effort. He broke awkwardly and was last in the early stages. However, not happy with that position, Manny Franco asked him for run down the backstretch, and Ringgood commenced an eye-catching mid-race move that carried him up to third by the time the field reached the quarter pole. He faded thereafter, but that effort gives me hope that he’ll actually appreciate this elongated sprint distance.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5

RACE 8: OUR LAST BUCK (#5)
It’s been foolish to try to beat Orlando Noda lately. He is a remarkable 9 for 21 (43%, $4.49 ROI) at this meet, and has won with 6 of his last 8 starters through Sunday. Like many runners from the stable, Control Group improved in his Saratoga start, which was also his first race off the claim for the barn. However, it’s not as if that effort came out of nowhere, as the horse had previously achieved a similar victory in July for Rudy Rodriguez, albeit against cheaper company. Perhaps it’s unwise to pick against this horse, but he’s landing in a tougher N2X optional claimer than last time, primarily due to the presence of main rival Our Last Buck. I prefer the Michelle Nevin trainee at what could be a better price. This 6-year-old has been a new horse since he was finally stretched out in distance on the dirt. He rewarded his connections with a pair of impressive victories against softer company before just missing at this level last time with a career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While he lost as the 3-5 favorite, the horse who defeated him is a classy runner who simply regained his best form in the slop. Our Last Buck will be difficult for anyone in this field to handle if he merely maintains that form. The two-turn 9 furlongs may be a question mark for some, but he figures to sit a comfortable trip perched just off the two speeds, Yankee Division and Control Group.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1,4,6